The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable and over 1.5 million other books are available for Amazon Kindle . Learn more


or
Sign in to turn on 1-Click ordering.
Trade in Yours
For a £0.25 Gift Card
Trade in
More Buying Choices
Have one to sell? Sell yours here
Sorry, this item is not available in
Image not available for
Colour:
Image not available

 
Start reading The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable on your Kindle in under a minute.

Don't have a Kindle? Get your Kindle here, or download a FREE Kindle Reading App.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable [Paperback]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
3.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (195 customer reviews)
RRP: £9.99
Price: £6.89 & this item Delivered FREE in the UK with Super Saver Delivery. See details and conditions
You Save: £3.10 (31%)
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
In stock but may require up to 2 additional days to deliver.
Dispatched from and sold by Amazon. Gift-wrap available.

Formats

Amazon Price New from Used from
Kindle Edition £7.99  
Hardcover --  
Paperback £6.89  
Audio, CD, Audiobook £30.00  
Audio Download, Unabridged £11.54 or Free with Audible.co.uk 30-day free trial
Amazon.co.uk Trade-In Store
Did you know you can trade in your old books for an Amazon.co.uk Gift Card to spend on the things you want? Visit the Books Trade-In Store for more details. Learn more.

Book Description

28 Feb 2008 0141034599 978-0141034591 Re-issue

A condensed guide to life from the bestselling author of The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Bed of Procrustes is an invaluable collection of aphorisms navigate the modern world

Why are we so often unwilling to accept that life is unpredictable? In this brilliant book Nassim Nicholas Taleb distils his idiosyncratic wisdom to demolish our illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance and erudition against modern philistinism and phoniness. Only by accepting what we don't know, he shows, can we see the world as it really is.

'Happily provocative ... blistering ... his observations concern superiority, wealth, suckerdom, academia, modernity, technology and the all-purpose, ignorant "they" ... very quotable'
  The New York Times

'A master philosopher'
  The Times

'Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems'
  Financial Times

'Opinionated and witty ... It showcases his wit and learning, and provides ways to fillet his enemies'
  Independent on Sunday

Nassim Nicholas Taleb spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet. A former trader, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University. He is the author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, an international bestseller which has become an intellectual, social, and cultural touchstone.


Frequently Bought Together

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable + Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets + Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder
Price For All Three: £29.78

Some of these items are dispatched sooner than the others.

Buy the selected items together


Product details

  • Paperback: 394 pages
  • Publisher: Penguin; Re-issue edition (28 Feb 2008)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0141034599
  • ISBN-13: 978-0141034591
  • Product Dimensions: 12.9 x 2.7 x 19.8 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (195 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 1,062 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Discover books, learn about writers, and more.

Product Description

Review

Great fun … brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling (Freakonomics )

An idiosyncratically brilliant new book (Sunday Telegraph )

A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected (Guardian )

Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling (Financial Times )

Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot (Sunday Times )

In the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point (Time )

From the Publisher

Shortlisted for the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2007
--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Inside This Book (Learn More)
First Sentence
The writer Umberto Eco belongs to that small class of scholars who are encyclopedic, insightful, and nondull. Read the first page
Browse Sample Pages
Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
Search inside this book:

What Other Items Do Customers Buy After Viewing This Item?


Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews
495 of 524 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars right, interesting, but extremely irritating 28 Nov 2007
Format:Hardcover
Taleb has one good idea, a great idea even, and an infinite number of ways of talking about it. It is essentially the same idea as his last book, Fooled by Randomness: namely that life does not behave with regularity. Those who think it does, he says, will always be tripped up by the unexpected. Black Swan extends that idea, beyond the financial markets he concentrated on in Randomness, to just about all walks of life. He is a magpie for anecdote and stray pieces of supporting evidence wherever he can find them. He calls all this 'skeptical empiricism'.
The qualification is that his big idea is not original, though his numerous examples do help bring home its ubiquity. More problematically, he overstates its usefulness. For when it comes to calling your next move, the unpredictable and the unexpected are, by definition, not things we can anticipate. And though he is right that in the long run there will undoubtedly by high impact improbably events, it is also true, as Keynes said, that in the long run we are all dead: organising your life on the principle that something radical might come along doesn't solve the everyday problem of what to next.
In short, he exaggerates his own insight and the authority it gives him. That's a wicked irony, for the chief target of his ire is those with an exaggerated sense of insight and control over their lives.
Oh, and the tone... Taleb wants to be seen as a radical iconoclast. Every sentence drips righteousness and often irritation. He is the strutting, impatient sage, the rest of us blinkered morons. Apparently he doesn't like his editors trying to change this. A word of advice to the author: if you want your advice heeded, don't shout and sneer at your audience. For this reason, an interesting thesis, but in the end a wearisome read.
Was this review helpful to you?
176 of 186 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars In a nutshell: insightful but rambling 19 Jun 2009
Format:Paperback
There are many reviews here already, so I'll keep this short:

- Content: makes insightful points on limitations of our knowledge, human temptation to identify false trends and narratives, follow herd mentality, blindly follow 'experts', and so forth. He calls this 'skeptical empiricism'.

- Style: long-winded and rambling, skipping from personal stories from Lebanon, to parables intended to represent the author, to dull discussions on history of mathematics. I didn't mind it, but some readers hate it.

- Author: massively arrogant and up himself. Thinks he's had the best idea since sliced bread. He's got a good idea, but he's not the first or the only one, just the one with the biggest mouth.

- Other reads: there are better books out there on similar subjects. John Kay (of the FT) writes essays from a similar position, much more concisely and more to the point.

Hope that helps!
Was this review helpful to you?
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars No empirical evidence presented 26 Aug 2011
Format:Paperback
This is an interesting read and likely worth it. The main point is there are a lot of people in finance who have no clue about statistics.

One of the key points is that many financial markets follow power law distributions. I was disappointed to see that no empirical evidence is presented to support this. So I tested it myself. 108 years data of equity returns in 5 countries (the DMS data set). There is no evidence to suggest annual equity returns follow a power law distribution. A much better fit is achieved with exponential.

Best to check oneself; free data is available from yahoo; R statistics program is free online; the fExtremes packages quickly tests if data follows a power law distribution.

Very disappointing and left me suspecting the other unsupported arguments in the book are similarly flawed.
Comment | 
Was this review helpful to you?
Would you like to see more reviews about this item?
Were these reviews helpful?   Let us know
Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars Wonderful book
I'm reviewing the hard copy book. I ordered and paid for it on Kindle but it never arrived!

The book is written with wit and insight, is enlightening and stimulating. Read more
Published 27 days ago by R. RESTALL
1.0 out of 5 stars Poorly written, patronising, piffle
I am not as qualified as some other reviewers to judge the mathematical merits of the author's arguments but I do know, when I see it:

1. Overt plagiarism
2. Read more
Published 29 days ago by Chippy_D
3.0 out of 5 stars Good, but missing something
A very good read, undoubtedly and the concept of the black swan is invaluable. The authors personal anecdotes and philosophy are probably the main interests here though, for... Read more
Published 1 month ago by anthony j morgan
5.0 out of 5 stars A salutary reminder of our intellectual faults.
Every once in a while we must be reminded of our own shortcomings so that we can retain some measure of reality. The Black Swan is very good at this last. Read more
Published 1 month ago by M. A. R. GONZALEZ
3.0 out of 5 stars It's Okay
It is Okay.
A bit too long and chewing same topic all over the place. Woudl make it shorter. Interesting point of view with some great topic for consideration. Read more
Published 1 month ago by alex petkov
1.0 out of 5 stars An important topic spoilt by a bad book
I had high hopes for this book. How best to deal with uncertainty is an intellectually challenging and interesting question with major implications for our daily lives. Read more
Published 3 months ago by Jan W. H. Schnupp
5.0 out of 5 stars A totally unexpected book
Simply one of the best non-fiction books I have ever read. I would have never guessed from the title or synopsis quite what to expect. Read more
Published 3 months ago by William Caola
3.0 out of 5 stars Good ideas, but a bit arrogant
A good read and an interesting perspective on statistics. However, the personal commentary and the bashing of almost all conventional statistics and economics undermines the sound... Read more
Published 3 months ago by Alex
4.0 out of 5 stars An interesting perspective on risk
I'm surprised that there are so many negative reviews for this book, I was expecting more positive reviews but they appear to be fairly evenly distributed over the ratings. Read more
Published 3 months ago by Edward A. Thomson
3.0 out of 5 stars Not all that bad
Everybody knows this is a lazy sequel to a succesful book.

But I never read Fooled by Randomness, and I hold a couple math degrees, and I even once took a class from a... Read more
Published 4 months ago by Athan
Search Customer Reviews
Only search this product's reviews

Customer Discussions

This product's forum
Discussion Replies Latest Post
Implications of the Black Swan for Management 0 7 Jun 2009
See all discussions...  
Start a new discussion
Topic:
First post:
Prompts for sign-in
 

Search Customer Discussions
   
Related forums


Listmania!


Look for similar items by category


Feedback


Amazon.co.uk Privacy Statement Amazon.co.uk Delivery Information Amazon.co.uk Returns & Exchanges