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Book Description
Why we are in for another economic bust and who will come out of it best - and worst - and why
Product Description
2012 will bring another global economic crisis. It could have been avoided if America and other deficit countries had embarked on currency devaluation and tighter domestic policy to sustain recovery and growth, boost exports and savings, while cutting excessive debts built up in the pre-crisis 'gilded age'. But they didn't. Instead they continued to run large government deficits, effectively transferring debt from private to public hands, rather than reducing it through rising national savings rates. Savings-rich countries, notably China, have not helped. To get the global economy in better balance they needed to reduce exports by revaluing their currencies and encouraging domestic demand. Instead,the second, third and fourth largest economies in the world have continued to increase their net exports, thwarting recovery in the United States, Britain and southern Europe.This economic imbalance, say Dumas and Choyleva, is going to cause another global economic crunch. And afterwards? Perhaps surprisingly, but with impeccable reasoning, Dumas and Choyleva go on to argue that America will emerge from the slump in the strongest shape, China will struggle unless it takes steps to tackle its structural problems, Eurozone countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece are in for a depressing decade, while Britain, because of its labour market and exchange rate flexibility, will be in better shape to emulate America's recovery. These are precarious times. To understand and prepare for them, this book will be invaluable
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Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase
One of the best books about the world's saving and spending imbalances I've come across. The impossibility of continuing with the current set up for the US-China and within Europe debtor-creditor relationships is excellently argued. The timelines for the slump of 2011-2012 may or may not hold exactly but it's clear that the reconing has to come. Get the book and educate yourself about economic fundamental causes before getting carried away with the simptoms of which there is written lots and lots.
Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta)
Amazon.com:
2 reviews
Lots of information, but a difficult read
21 Dec 2011
Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase
This book is filled with facts and figures supporting its thesis, which is well stated by the title. Unfortunately, for someone like me with a beginners knowledge of economics, it was a difficult read. I found myself re-reading a lot of sentences to catch all the nuances. I had to force myself to finish the book. I ended up with a better understanding of the current world ecomonic situation, but I didn't have fun in the process.
1 of 5 people found the following review helpful
Eye-opener
9 Nov 2011
Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase
Dumas and Choyleva go to the realities behind the pieties and fright-headlines in a mainstream media the quality of fan magazines at the check-out counter. De Tocqueville based his appraisal not just on the exceptional spirit of the amalgam of races and nationalities comprising the fabric of America. He also based his assessment on the advantages of geography (the US has an exceptional number of navigable rivers for moving freight) to the raw materials and natural resources. In the ensuing years, we have done the right thing...the reverse of the rest of the world who moves passengers by rail and freight by road. Despite the call for more passenger rail (which will go as unused as all public transportation in the US), not without imbalances, the US has chosen wisely
The authors have done much the same, going beneath the glitzy headlines of China's growth in the manufacturing arena (we're still waiting for Chinese-designed cars and computers) to less publicized realities of state-dictated life with over 45 million people living in caves (yes, that's a harsh reality the economic writers at the NYT don't report. This is the same Potemkin-style economy our current president has pointed at as a model for America to emulate.
The authors point to the ineluctable realities of a country that still maintains the individual is worthwhile, to a country which has a thriving human-organ-on-demand industry, or to the eternal battleground of disparate cultures whipped into an odd gallimaufry of unwilling and unequal allies. The EU is revealed as the fantasy it is. You cannot build a cohesive union on two millenia of scars continuously inflicted since the Caesars. The Muslim population is not what will topple the EU this time...it's the homegrown Europeans who will drive the stakes into each other's hearts. 2,000 years of internecine war is difficult to forget. So they curse each other under their breath, put their money in a hole in the backyard (as the authors point up, their efforts go into making exports which drives up the cost of goods at home. The authors refer to those nations as "savings gluttons").
As long as Americans can maintain the spirit that brought us to this point...warts and all, we will prevail the coming shifts.
The authors have done much the same, going beneath the glitzy headlines of China's growth in the manufacturing arena (we're still waiting for Chinese-designed cars and computers) to less publicized realities of state-dictated life with over 45 million people living in caves (yes, that's a harsh reality the economic writers at the NYT don't report. This is the same Potemkin-style economy our current president has pointed at as a model for America to emulate.
The authors point to the ineluctable realities of a country that still maintains the individual is worthwhile, to a country which has a thriving human-organ-on-demand industry, or to the eternal battleground of disparate cultures whipped into an odd gallimaufry of unwilling and unequal allies. The EU is revealed as the fantasy it is. You cannot build a cohesive union on two millenia of scars continuously inflicted since the Caesars. The Muslim population is not what will topple the EU this time...it's the homegrown Europeans who will drive the stakes into each other's hearts. 2,000 years of internecine war is difficult to forget. So they curse each other under their breath, put their money in a hole in the backyard (as the authors point up, their efforts go into making exports which drives up the cost of goods at home. The authors refer to those nations as "savings gluttons").
As long as Americans can maintain the spirit that brought us to this point...warts and all, we will prevail the coming shifts.
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