Target Risk 2: A New Psychology of Safety and Health [Paperback]

Wilde here expands on the ideas first presented in the 1994 first edition of TARGET RISK, namely, "risk homeostasis."

Risk homeostasis is the process by which human beings maintain a more-or-less constant level of (perceived) exposure to risk.

In a famous experiment in the 1950s, an English psychologist monitored galvanic skin response in drivers as they drove through a loop of London streets. He measured the risks drivers took (the "perceived level of danger" inherent in things like passing, speed, rapidity of lange changes, acceleration, braking etc) and found that drivers maintained a fairly steady "rate" of risk taking as measured as a function of time spend driving. In other words, during "safe" sections of road (wide, straight) drivers drove faster and took more maneuvering risks. In more dangerous sections (curvy, more traffic, etc) drivers drove more slowly. The key, however, was that drivers maintained a steady state of exposure to risk.

In another well known experiment, in 1977 the government of B.C., Canada instituted a crackdown on drunk driving. The crackdown lowered the rate of alcohol-caused accidents by about 25%, but during the six-month crackdown other types of accidents ROSE by 25%. Risk hoemeostasis would say that as people saw their (and others') driving risks due to alcohol reduced, they took more risks elsewhere.

Wilde's work investigated this idea and develops it into the theory of "risk homeostasis," which holds that people have a "risk target" of dangerous behaviours. When they reduce risky behaviour in one area (e.g. they start to wear seatbelts to increase the accident survival rate) they increase it in another (driving faster and more aggressively) to maintain a constant level of risk. Wilde suggests that this "target level" of risk is difficult to change, and presents a mass of evidence to suggest that impeoving safety of roads, cars etc does not, in fact, reduce the per-capita injury or death rate.

Wilde's theory accounts for a number of strange and well-documented phenomena. Smokers who quit smoking do not live longer (on average) than those who do not quit. Increases in traffic safety measures do not change the accident rate per capita-- the accident rate per mile driven drops, but the total number of miles driven increases. Insurance rate changes for those who have accidents do not change driver behaviour. Anti-smoking and anti-drinking etc campaigns do not work.

This is a clear and well-written book that presents a strange, counterintuitive and fascinating idea. The implications for teachers, politicians, health-care people and drivers are enormous. My only beef with the work is that Wilde gets his narrative (how he developed the theory) and his factual presnetations (what he found) mixed up at times. Overall, however, this is fine stuff.

I sent for this book as part of my MSc in Health & Safety. What a joy to read the views of someone better qualified than me who sang from the same hymn book as me! This book talks about risk taking behaviour in the context of risk homeostasis and risk displacement and linking it in with road safety measures worldwide. This book is highly relevant to H & S professionals from all industries and service sectors, as the concepts given can be applied anywhere. You can even apply them to your own driver behaviour - you'll be surprised at the result! This has to be one of the few academic books that have not had me snoring within 3 minutes of attempting to read it - fascinating throughout! Some readers from the more conventional schools of thought may be irritated by the "one sidedness" of the views expressed here, but they are founded on 30 years of data. This book really should reach a much wider audience, especially those in Government. May I also recommend the book Risk by John Adams?

This book of Gerald Wilde is a must read for anyone involved in traffic safety. It explains why some measures, like ABS systems or airbags, don't work the way you expect. People will drive faster and more dangerous, knowing about these safety measures, is the basic line. You may disagree with some of his views, but it will almost certainly change the way you think about traffic safety....

› Go to Amazon.com to see all 3 reviews  4.3 out of 5 stars