- Hardcover: 272 pages
- Publisher: John Murray (6 Sep 2007)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 0719564638
- ISBN-13: 978-0719564635
- Product Dimensions: 23.6 x 15.4 x 2.8 cm
- Average Customer Review: 2.7 out of 5 stars See all reviews (6 customer reviews)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 281,148 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Product Description
Review
Groundbreaking ... Not only is it fun to read. It just may change the way you think'
(Stephen D Levitt co-author of Freakonomics )Product Description
Companies used to rely on human experts and their years of experience to guide them. Now, cutting-edge organizations are mining the data and crunching numbers instead, to come up with more accurate, less biased predictions. As Freakonomics detailed, statistical analysis can reveal the secret levers of causation. But economist Ian Ayres argues that that’s only part of the story: super crunching is revolutionizing the way we all make decisions.
Beginning with examples of the mathematician who out-predicted wine buffs in determining the best vintages, and the sports scouts who now use statistics rather than intuition to pick winners, Super Crunchers exposes the world of data-miners, introducing the people and the techniques. It illuminates the hidden patterns all around us. No businessperson, academic, student, or consumer (statistically that’s everyone) should make another move without getting to grips with thinking-by-numbers – the new way to be smart, savvy and statistically superior.
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Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
14 of 14 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
The concept was reasonable: to show how statistical analysis was changing the way in which the businesses and governments operated. The author also set out the relevant topics sensibly; chapters covered such issues as why this is occurring now, random samples, the reaction of experts to such analysis (with an extra focus on the medical profession) and the legal/ moral issues that this type of analysis raises. The trouble with this book is that the writing style is too simplistic. It's not obvious whether this is the fault of the editor or the author or a combination of the two. Various examples of data analysis are used without it being clear what point the author is trying to make. The result is that at the end of many chapters it's unclear what the author's intent was. There are two other aspects of the writing which are irritating. First, every person whose work is described in the book is given a brief biography which reads as if they were some form of matinee idol. Secondly, the author uses the opportunity to air some personal professional disputes which for anyone outside the argument is tedious. Overall, it's a book you may buy at an airport to read on a flight and throw away
11 of 11 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
What this book does well is to show how valuable numerical information can be if you know how to analyse it properly, and how unreliable human judgment can be compared to what the data can tell us. The examples are well chosen and telling. Where it goes too far is in expressing almost unqualified belief that the number stuff trumps everything else, all the time. Contrary to the title, not everything can be predicted. Specifically, the sudden turns of events, in markets or social behaviour (which are often what we are most interested in) are not predictable on the basis of past patterns. By defintion, surprises are not predictable. And there always has to be a human doing the modelling, working out the dynamics of any set of causal relationships. Sometimes, these people get it wrong. Then it's the old case of "rubbish in, rubbish out." But though he has pushed the argument too far, he is interesting, imaginative and persuasive that the balance could be tipped a little further than it now is, towards making better use of statistical data.
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
I'm quite fond of these 'pop economics' books. At least there seem to be a few of them on my bookshelves now, so I feel well qualified to pass judgement on this one.
On the whole, a big disappointment. I have to admit I skipped a few chapters in the middle because I was bored. Most of the interesting stuff could easily have been condensed down into something the size of an article in the Sunday supplements. I should have known the book was going to be a duffer when I saw the testimonial on the front. It was written by one of his best buddies, so hardly impartial, and whose own book, Freakanomics, I also thought was overrated.
Also, given the subject matter you think the author would have worked out the chances of the book being read by people who aren't American and adjusted his style appropriately. I'm not sure words like 'kvall' and 'glommed' are words even in America, so why use them? And although I still got the point, examples evolving around baseball and other such Americana left me cold.
A much better read is The Undercover Economist by Tim Harford (British, so his writing is much more worldly).
But I'm still giving this book 4 stars. Why? Because towards the end there is some really interesting stuff about statistics and particularly something called 2SD. Most books I read, understand (or not) then forget. However this statistics stuff is genuinely useful and has stayed with me. Now I reckon that a few quid to learn something good that most people don't have a clue about is a bargain.
On the whole, a big disappointment. I have to admit I skipped a few chapters in the middle because I was bored. Most of the interesting stuff could easily have been condensed down into something the size of an article in the Sunday supplements. I should have known the book was going to be a duffer when I saw the testimonial on the front. It was written by one of his best buddies, so hardly impartial, and whose own book, Freakanomics, I also thought was overrated.
Also, given the subject matter you think the author would have worked out the chances of the book being read by people who aren't American and adjusted his style appropriately. I'm not sure words like 'kvall' and 'glommed' are words even in America, so why use them? And although I still got the point, examples evolving around baseball and other such Americana left me cold.
A much better read is The Undercover Economist by Tim Harford (British, so his writing is much more worldly).
But I'm still giving this book 4 stars. Why? Because towards the end there is some really interesting stuff about statistics and particularly something called 2SD. Most books I read, understand (or not) then forget. However this statistics stuff is genuinely useful and has stayed with me. Now I reckon that a few quid to learn something good that most people don't have a clue about is a bargain.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
Does not tell the full story - needs an update!
This read must have been compelling a couple of years ago. But the 'super crunching' this book advocates - didn't do a good job in predicting the credit crunch. Read more
Published on 21 Feb 2009 by Tareq W. Muhmood
Persuasive
This book is not as poor as the previous reviews suggest. It offers a persuasive account of the potential of mass numeric data in coming to better (evidence-based) decisions. Read more
Published on 19 Sep 2008 by Avid
Anecdotal Assembly
Tiresome. One lengthy anecdote after the other -- albeit, some of interest. No conceptual depth. Surprising that such work can come from an associate of Yale University. Read more
Published on 7 Sep 2007 by Crispin Batten
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