Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power [Hardcover]

In "Strategic Vision," Zbigniew Brzezinski, a foreign policy expert and former National Security Adviser, offers a concise and cogent analysis of the reasons behind the decline in America's global standing, and the dangers that are sure to follow if we let that decline continue. The book is well-written, readable and at 225 pages fairly short for a a book written by someone of Brzezinski's stature on such a broad subject.

Brzezinski provides the expected analysis of America's rise as a global power and a brief comparison to other empires throughout history, as well as the most important reasons behind the recent decline in U.S. influence. He argues strongly that a strong United States is vital to global stability for the foreseeable future. He does not think that China, for example, will be in a position to assume the current U.S. role even by 2025 and beyond.

If the U.S. fails to maintain its stabilizing influence, Brzezinski foresees global chaos, uncertainty and increased tensions between nations. Countries will be less apt to cooperate and more inclined to pursue pure self-interest, and this will happen during a time when collaboration on issues like climate change and terrorism will be more and more crucial. Brzezinski calls for the U.S. to fulfill a "dual role" going forward: First it must secure and strengthen the countries that make up the West. Second it needs balance and mediate between the rising powers in the East, especially China, India and Japan. In order to do this, of course, the U.S. needs to fix its domestic problems and regain credibility.

Once thing I really liked is that fact that, even in a fairly short book on global issues, the author gave an entire chapter to the issue of the U.S. domestic and economic problems. It is clear that America's ability to fulfill its global role rests entirely on the strength of its economy. And issues like unemployment, declining wages for most people, soaring inequality, and political gridlock are likely to undermine restoration of domestic strength.

One place the book falls short is in its failure to consider the issue of advancing technology and what it will mean for both domestic and foreign policy. It is pretty clear that employers in the U.S. no longer need to hire as many people as they used to. Half of college graduates are not finding jobs that require college degrees. This is not just because of the recession; structural changes are taking place.

Information technology is advancing faster and faster. We celebrate new companies like Google and Facebook, but they only create a tiny number of jobs. This is going to be a vital issue for nearly every advanced country over the next 10 to 20 years and will have a huge impact on geopolitics and on how countries compete economically. "Strategic Vision" is highly recommend, but it is also important to start thinking about how technology is changing things, and the policies that will be required to adapt to those changes.

I'm a Morning Joe regular, and I've long admired Dr. Brzezinski. However, this prolonged memo (it's really too short to be called a "book".) makes a case for considering multiple points of view. The other reviews (when I bought the book there were none, now there are five) struck me as articulate, but leaning towards sycophancy. There's a lot to like, but it's not beyond criticism.

For example,he explains the present belief of America's decline by saying: "Six critical dimensions stand out as America's major, and increasingly threatening, liabilities:". Thefirst is an unsustainable national debt, the second our "flawed financial system", third, "widening income inequality coupled with stagnating social mobility", fourth is decaying national infrastructure, fifth is "a public that is highly ignorant about the world", while sixth is "America's increasingly gridlocked and highly partisan political system."

You've got to agree with this analysis (even though I think the analysis in WINNER TAKE ALL POLITICS by Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson presents the same problems with root causes much more effectively). Brzezinski makes all these points quite cogently without belaboring the analysis. The dialogue is fast, crisp and, best of all, decidedly un-wonkish. Anyone can understand the difficult concepts.

Unfortunately, instead of providing solutions to what many economists, political scientists and social comentators have labelled "insoluble", he says that "the foreseeable future is still largely America's to shape. the United States has the capacity to correct its evident shortcomings--if it takes full advantage of its considerable strengths in the following six key areas: overall economic strength, innovative potential, demographic dynamics, reactive mobilization, geographic base, and democratic appeal."

He goes on to expand upon these six strengths, apparently unaware that he has anthropomorphized the country itself (see statement above--"if IT takes full advantage of ITS considerable strengths," etc. This is not a solution, it's a wish list. He is correct in everything he says, but it becomes perfectly clear that he is better spoken yet only linguistically superior to the politicians he advises. HE HAS NO REAL ANSWERS. HE IS SHORT ON SOLUTIONS.

This IS slightly unfair. To any specific global problem, it becomes clear he has a specific, defensible recommendation. As you read through that section of the book concerning the problem areas of the globe, you begin to wish he had been a Republican at the side of George W. Bush, whose foreign policy must have originated in some video game designer's studio. Still, he describes virtually every situation calling for sensitive limited engagement. He is without meaningful threat; his style seems to abandon confrontation. It's like he's looking for the KUMBAYAH MOMENT internationally.

Similarly disappointing, is the lack of allowance for major incidence. It's long forgotten that a great deal of the groundwork for the present relationship between the US, (then) Nationalist China, and (then DBA)"Mainland China", was the shelling of the islands of Quemoy and Matsu by the communists. This CHANGED the whole equation, underscoring the value the (then)communists placed upon eventual unification. That provocation went a long way towards establishing the US "one China" policy that Dr. Brzezinski describes eloquently in what comes off as almost a tribute to Deng Xiou Peng. What happens to this carefully crafted strategy towards rolling accomodation if there is a major war between India and Pakistan?

Weaknesses and all, though,you can stack this against any number of similar books and you still come up with a "BUY" recommendation. His analysis is brilliant. His research is spot on. His editing reeks of a fine, well-used blue pencil, and his understanding of differing global values is encyclopedic. In the final analysis, you have to appreciate this book for what it includes in a small, pithy volume, not for what he was sagacious enough to leave out.

*****
"One of America's precious few master strategists paints a convincing picture of an increasingly messy world ahead and presents a U.S. policy to manage it -- going to strength by building an expanded Europe and keeping a burgeoning Asia stable. Succinct, sharp, and sensible."--Leslie Gelb, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations
*

Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor, a key architect of America's cold war strategy, calls for an urgent need of a historic review of US Strategic Vision (an enduring theme at the U.S. Army War College). He looks back to the optimism following the fall of the USSR Communist Empire and regrets America's missed opportunity. Assessing a detailed analysis, he outlines a new strategy, by which the United States can reassert its position of strength. Monitoring the tottering of the West as the lone superpower, Dr. Brzezinski has warned in his book, "Second Chance, 2007," about the 'Crisis of the American Superpower'. Now, he looks carefully at the expected shift in global power as Europe declines, and draws a bold strategy making way for an accommodating global picture.

The visionary thinker focuses on the change of global power distribution, to counteract the West powers receding due to Europe economics, and the waning of U.S. influence, making way for new entrants from China, India, and Brazil, motivated by their awakened perception of an active global political participation. His analysis prescribes remedies to assert America's place in that new scheme, balancing the shift in global power, especially in relation to China. Brzezinski, exposes bold views, on the future of America and the Crisis of Global Power conveying his hawkish approach. The book contains strong recommendations, to incite Europe to bring both Russia and Turkey into an expanded west, the US should install a hedge around China's expansion, without explicitly attempting to contain it.

In his systematic analysis, the trustee of the Center for Strategic International Studies, examines the reasons for the possible decline of U.S. influence, that the enduring US leadership is widely questioned worldwide with sharp criticism, "because of the complexity of its internal and external challenges." He thinks that what he describes as its, "magical twin motivations of idealism and materialism are no longer viable," since America's court is in a chaotic disarray; its economy is suffering, and an increasing popular feeling of social injustice. With little hope for a better foreseeable future, the majority is isolated in frustrating delusion, and what the author describes as 'ignorance about the rest of the world'. Exhausted by a decade of fighting of two remote wars, an unjustified one in Iraq and another unending war in Afghanistan, arousing a worldwide feeling of animosity towards the US.

Meanwhile, Dr. Brzezinski looks at the rising sun of the Orient, in China, India, Japan, Russia, and Turkey, even when his own expectations indicate that due to their growing pains, no new world leader can be ready by 2025. On the other hand, many global hotspots anticipate a negative geopolitical future for Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea, as the most endangered states. Other nations such as Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel are confronted with many uncertainties possibly contributed by regional instability. "By harnessing its overall strengths in terms of economic, social and political ranking, superiority of higher education, rich natural resources and population resiliency, America can indeed "rise to the occasion," is Brzezinski final cautionary warning

"Academics, pundits, and advisors have often been mistaken about America's position in the world....two decades ago, the conventional wisdom was that the US was in decline, suffering from 'imperial overstretch'. A decade later...the new conventional wisdom was that the world was a unipolar American hegemony."--Joseph Nye, Jr, Harvard service professor

America and the World: Conversations on the Future of American Foreign Policy