Most Helpful Customer Reviews
|
|
59 of 69 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Six steps to some surprises, 19 Aug 2007
It's hard to understand how there could be any climate change "sceptics" remaining. Perhaps they have failed to comprehend the long view of what the circumstances are. What does an increase in global temperatures really mean? Mark Lynas has culled the massive number of reports on the topic and here woven them into a comprehensive picture of likely futures for this planet. In this effective work, he lines out what the changes in our biosphere are likely to be over the next decades. It's a chilling account and one that should be in the hands of every industrialist, policy-maker and tax-paying consumer.
Using the data supplied by his extensive resources, Lynas depicts global and regional changes in environment due to increase over time. His temperature range selection is driven by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC's reports indicate a six degree Celsius increase over the next century. Integrating the scientific research on the biosphere, IPCC is able to review existing and past conditions and those likely to ensue in the future. Lynas synthesizes the reports to present a picture of conditions likely with each degree of heat will lead to over time. The first degree is typified by examples of drought. The Great Plains of the US trans-Mississippi is already showing signs of that dry-out. The author explains that drought in one place may be off-set by rainstorms elsewhere. Heat over land desiccates, but heat over water increases evaporation leading to greater precipitation. Even with but a single step up in temperature, the rains may be intense in some locales. This seems to be occurring already, with ravaging storms displacing many refugees. Katrina is almost certainly an example of the new environment.
As he progresses through the impact of biosphere heating, he reminds the reader that the social costs will only grow higher. If the North Atlantic Current is flooded by fresh water runoff from North America and Greenland, northern Europe may be facing a cold snap. The cooling will be brief, however, as dry conditions will move into Europe from Africa. The moving warm air will be accompanied by the Mediterranean population fleeing dried-out farms and depleted fisheries. While there remains doubt about how long it might take to shut down the Gulf Stream, the drought conditions are inevitable if the rate of heating continues unabated. Millions of people will be displaced, but whether they will find refuge is problematic. As Lynas points out, the forces and numbers involved here are so staggering that it's difficult for all of us to conceive of them in our minds. Katrina emptied an entire city, but those people were absorbed into other areas. The idea of whole nations on the move is beyond imagining. Yet that is the very prospect we, and our children will be facing.
The point of this book is that during the ensuing decades, we are all, every culture, religion, social group and government, facing a planetary disruption of unpredictable severity. That's a difficult concept to grasp, but the challenge is there and clearly present. Attempts to deny it may give us superficial comfort, but, as Lynas points out, similar crises have occurred in the past. Our civilisations weren't there to experience them and we have few precedents to draw on for planning corrective action. He describes those ancient events with clarity and concern, but leaves to the reader how the conditions might affect their daily lives. It's not an easy task, but obviously must be undertaken.
If there's a serious flaw in this book - and there isn't - the major one is the failure to assess cascade effects through time. Explaining conditions by steps of temperature is a useful and needed exercise. What's lacking is some effort to deal with the population displacement and the results of that movement. While it would necessarily be in the realm of speculation, the questions should have been raised, or where they are noted, been offered with greater clarity. Lynas' own use of language, however, is severe enough. Tackling the social questions more thoroughly might exhaust his lexicon. The human issue is, to us, the big one, but the next step in his analysis might also have prompted some actions we might consider. Several recent books, most notably George Monbiot's "Heat" address this question squarely. Perhaps it's best for readers to seriously consider investing in both. But you must also consider how many copies to purchase. Both these books need to be widely read and acted on. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]
|
|
|
39 of 47 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Shocking!, 16 April 2007
The premise for the book is immediately appealing- the amount of current research out there to grasp can be daunting (in number and complexity) to say the least but Lynas has done all the hard work and compiled a sort of global overview of what we can expect in the near future- degree by frightening degree. There are a few things that make this book 5 stars to me- firstly, it's written the way science literature should be- every statement backed up with a source. So just when you think he's laying on the rhetoric a little heavy, i.e. global methane fireballs, it's backed up in the substantial (to say the VERY least) list of references. Secondly, his style is never dreamily optimistic, nor is it tiringly depressing- it's written with kind of a straightforward urgency that is very inspiring. Lastly, while being a palaeoclimate student, i get bogged down in relentless detailed science, which he managed to tactfully sidestep here while pointing in the right direction for further detailed reading. Also, maybe it's just me, but the 6th chapter seems like a tactful stab at the IPCC's prediction of a possible 6 degree increase in ave temp as the chapter is nothing short of apocalyptic hell on earth. Sort of like them saying: "mmm, climate is changing- we can expect anything from higher sea levels and economic strain to a fiery hellish mass extinction." Best book i've read in a long time, and probably one i'll revisit many times in the future.
|
|
|
12 of 14 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars
A worthwhile read - shame the only picture is the naff cover design., 16 Jun 2008
In some ways this is just another popular book about climate change, which perhaps is why the publishers opted for the (IMO unnecessary) "look-at-me" cover. But, then, only the inept judge books by their covers.
Lynas approaches climate change by describing things that may happen when average global temperatures rise by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 degrees respectively and provides successive chapters for these scenarios. This presentation sequence is, IMO, very effective.
Writing for the non-specialist audience, he takes a broad-brush approach choosing, rightly IMO, not to burden the reader with details but giving a 50-page Notes section at the end listing references to details referred to in the text. On the downside, there are no diagrams - not even line graphics. For me this detracted from the presentation, which I found otherwise very engaging.
So much, then, for how he says things. I would, however, have some criticisms of what he says. First of all, though he claims that anthropogenic carbon emissions are causing global warming, whether they are it's sole cause is a matter open to legitimate debate. (No - I'm not a warming-skeptic, just a little obsessional about the science.) Given the reaction from scientifically illiterate skeptics, I do worry that people who write about global warming, particularly in the popular science genre, simply don't give a balanced view.
There is substantial scientific evidence that global temperature variations and CO2 levels have varied widely in the pre-human past. It is possible that all human CO2 emissions are doing are adding a little more feedback to what is otherwise a natural process. This is not an argument for not moderating such emissions, but it should alert us to be very careful about deciding what we do about climate change. It may be that even substantial emission reductions can change outcomes only to a limited extent. In that case carbon sequestration and measures to raise Earth's albedo might be better investments than the current green orthodoxy.
Still, I hope this goes to a second edition and that if it does, they'll:
(a) drop the naff cover design and put some pictures and diagrams - and above all MAPS - inside,
and
(b)be more balanced about the causes of global warming.
I'd recommend this book as an introduction to climate change for any lay reader who hasn't yet read anything about it (if that's possible). On the other hand I'd encourage anyone who does read it to look at other material on offer. Climate change is a complex subject and, with the best will in the world, nobody can do it justice in the popular science genre.
|
|
|
Most Recent Customer Reviews
|
by George Monbiot
by Mark Lynas
by Mark Lynas
by James Lovelock
