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... is both exciting and timely. It provides detailed insight on how the addiction to land speculation became the foundation of the United States of America
--Prosper Australia, January 2009
--Prosper Australia, January 2009
Review
It provides detailed insight on how the addiction to land speculation became the foundation of the United States of America.
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This is a superbly written, logically structured study of the property market. Most of the data relate to the US, but there are many lessons to draw for people in other geographies. The author's approach is to tell it like it is - he's an Aussie and it shows.His ideas are clear, the writing crisp and the book free from philosophical dogma.
His analysis of property market booms and busts over the last 210 years shows how we fall into the same traps over and over again. What is so damning for those involved in our current economic malaise is the sheer weight of evidence Mr Anderson has collected to show that property cycles run in approx. 18 year cycles.
It would be enjoyable to read a comment about a land boom - "The previous increase of bank issues had prompted speculation, the contraction caused a serious fall in the prices of commodities and real estate," if it wasn't for the fact that the commentator (William Peter Harrison) was talking not about our latest alledgedly unprecedented and totally unpredictable crash but one that occured in 1819. Mr Anderson also points out that the first time the US depended on foreign loans was way back in 1790 when the first Secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, aggressively borrowed foreign funds to finance development.
They are so predictable you can almost set your watch by them. As it is, it leaves you feeling sick that we could have avoided what is surely going to be one of the biggest recessions in living memory.
Mr Anderson is most helpful when he stresses that each cycle, whilst following a predictable path, is slightly different. So offers many signs to look out for so that you can work out for yourself where we are in the property cycle (he uses a clock face to map out the different stages).
This book won't get you out of the current property crash but it will make you much more able to see when it turns and when it is safe to reinvest. It gives you a stunning historical perspective with which to immunise yourself from political and economic commentators who clearly fail to grasp the real reasons for the mess we are in.
Overall a fantastic book and well worth the price.
His analysis of property market booms and busts over the last 210 years shows how we fall into the same traps over and over again. What is so damning for those involved in our current economic malaise is the sheer weight of evidence Mr Anderson has collected to show that property cycles run in approx. 18 year cycles.
It would be enjoyable to read a comment about a land boom - "The previous increase of bank issues had prompted speculation, the contraction caused a serious fall in the prices of commodities and real estate," if it wasn't for the fact that the commentator (William Peter Harrison) was talking not about our latest alledgedly unprecedented and totally unpredictable crash but one that occured in 1819. Mr Anderson also points out that the first time the US depended on foreign loans was way back in 1790 when the first Secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, aggressively borrowed foreign funds to finance development.
They are so predictable you can almost set your watch by them. As it is, it leaves you feeling sick that we could have avoided what is surely going to be one of the biggest recessions in living memory.
Mr Anderson is most helpful when he stresses that each cycle, whilst following a predictable path, is slightly different. So offers many signs to look out for so that you can work out for yourself where we are in the property cycle (he uses a clock face to map out the different stages).
This book won't get you out of the current property crash but it will make you much more able to see when it turns and when it is safe to reinvest. It gives you a stunning historical perspective with which to immunise yourself from political and economic commentators who clearly fail to grasp the real reasons for the mess we are in.
Overall a fantastic book and well worth the price.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
I agree wholeheartedly with the 3 reviews above. The historical account showing the cycle operating in prior centuries is interesting, the parallels with the 2008 crisis are clear. I have always been interested in property, now having seen 3 booms in my lifetime it was great to read a well reasoned and supported account of what drives the booms. Congratulations to Mr Anderson, a great piece of work.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This thoroughly researched yet accessible book really hammers home the singular regularity and robustness of the property or real estate cycle, through some 200 odd years of the US to near the present day. Through the early days when there was a vast expanse of land still to be taken over; across different policies, governments, and financial and regulatory regimes; not to mention other external economic and world events, the sheer weight of evidence compiled over many cycles is impressive. By concentrating in depth solely on the US story the author may have picked the cleanest case to describe.
I've just finished a second reading of the main historical section. Although the writing is lively and the message clear enough first time around, there is a lot of material and it took me a certain amount of thinking time to mull over and take on a wholly new perspective.
Despite the existence of the cycle there is room for much variety in the basic drama. Each time around has its' own flavour, e.g. the location and type of property speculation is most focused upon, the magnitude of the boom and bust, and how credit is organised and delivered. The existence of non-real estate related busts obscures matters further. It's easy for observers, including 'experts', let alone politicians, to misinterpret the reasons for and inevitability of each bust, but the cycle rolls on and the author nails it down.
Descriptions of the scandals and frauds coming out of the woodwork in each bust are included. One point I found unexpected was how self deception (as well as ordinary deception) and groupthink are integral to the cycle.
This book has been instrumental in changing my own thinking, perhaps typical of someone coming from a hard science background, where markets are constantly teetering on the knife edge of efficiency unless perturbed by a sufficient force, to a more flexible behavioural view, though with its own regularities. Highly recommended for the thoughtful, and the just interested.
I've just finished a second reading of the main historical section. Although the writing is lively and the message clear enough first time around, there is a lot of material and it took me a certain amount of thinking time to mull over and take on a wholly new perspective.
Despite the existence of the cycle there is room for much variety in the basic drama. Each time around has its' own flavour, e.g. the location and type of property speculation is most focused upon, the magnitude of the boom and bust, and how credit is organised and delivered. The existence of non-real estate related busts obscures matters further. It's easy for observers, including 'experts', let alone politicians, to misinterpret the reasons for and inevitability of each bust, but the cycle rolls on and the author nails it down.
Descriptions of the scandals and frauds coming out of the woodwork in each bust are included. One point I found unexpected was how self deception (as well as ordinary deception) and groupthink are integral to the cycle.
This book has been instrumental in changing my own thinking, perhaps typical of someone coming from a hard science background, where markets are constantly teetering on the knife edge of efficiency unless perturbed by a sufficient force, to a more flexible behavioural view, though with its own regularities. Highly recommended for the thoughtful, and the just interested.
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