- Hardcover: 320 pages
- Publisher: John Wiley & Sons (27 Sep 1996)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 0471966398
- ISBN-13: 978-0471966395
- Product Dimensions: 23.7 x 15.9 x 2.4 cm
- Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 732,082 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- See Complete Table of Contents
Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation
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More About the Author
Product Description
Product Description
"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent fututes. It ensures not that you are always right about the future but––better––that you are almost never wrong about the future."––Stewart Brand This groundbreaking book from University of Strathclyde professor Kees van der Heijden shows how to use scenarios––a powerful new approach to strategic planning––to pilot your company profitably through unknown territory. When initially developed, scenario planning helped companies understand external change––change in markets, the competitive arena, technology, demographics, etc. In this book, van der Heijden goes one giant step further. After tackling external forces, he shows you how to apply the logic of scenario planning to internal forces.
∗A dynamic scenario–based approach to the strategic planning and organizational learning from an internationally respected authority ∗Arms managers with tools, concepts, and techniques they need to profitable pilot their organizations into an uncertain future
∗A dynamic scenario–based approach to the strategic planning and organizational learning from an internationally respected authority ∗Arms managers with tools, concepts, and techniques they need to profitable pilot their organizations into an uncertain future
From the Inside Flap
Scenarios Scenarios deals with how managers can set out and negotiate a successful course into the future for the organization in the face of significant uncertainty. Uncertainties about the future are often felt to be uncomfortable and thus "swept under the table" by collapsing them into a single–line forecast. This is tantamount to abdication of managerial responsibility. At worst it means a wild jump in the dark. Facing up to uncertainty changes the perspective on the future completely. The secret of success moves from "finding the best strategy" to "finding the best process". Thinking about scenarios – the different plausible future environments that can be imagined – is the key to thinking the process through and to keep thinking about it as the plans for the future unfold. Scenario planning is dynamic. The focus of attention needs to be on the ongoing "strategic conversation", penetrating both the formal and informal exchange of views through which the strategic understanding develops – and actions result. deals first with the principles of organizational learning and then moves on to describe practical and down–to–earth ways in which the organization can develop its skill in conducting an ongoing scenario–based strategy process. The methods described are based on many years of practical experience of managers in both large and small organizations; and they are grounded in solid logic.
Inside This Book
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First Sentence
Scenario planning has a long history emerging from its use by the military in war games. Read the first page
Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
Scenario planning has a long history emerging from its use by the military in war games. Read the first page
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Concordance
Browse Sample PagesConcordance
Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
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Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
Many business books provide just enough information to whet executives' appetites for more advice accompanied by high consulting fees. Author Kees van der Heijden has written an exception. His comprehensive volume puts scenario building in historical context, explains its relationship to forecasting and tells you how to introduce scenario planning to your organization. Once you understand your corporate identity and your fundamental "Business Idea," he says, you can establish and enact informative scenarios that will prepare your company for several different versions of what lies ahead. In that way, scenario planning generates better decision making. We strongly recommend this book to top managers, strategists and planners, especially those who sense they're making decisions on the fly without having a structure for thinking deeply about future implications.
10 of 13 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This is an interesting and thought provoking book by a strategist and planner of many years experience. van der Heijden develops a useful way for managers to think about their business and its possible futures.
Many interesting concepts are considered to improve the "fitness" of the organisation. At times it can be challenging but developing a "learning organisation" should not be considered an easy exercise
Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta)
Amazon.com:
12 reviews
26 of 27 people found the following review helpful
Strategic Processes MasterGuide
24 Nov 2000
Format:Hardcover
Aimed at business strategists or consultants, this book provides many deep, usable tools, and approaches assisting the development of more robust projects and organizations across a range of futures.
The well referenced attractive chapters span:
++ The context- history in Shell, and three paradigms (rationalist/ evolutionist, and processualist).
++ The principles of scenario planning- the business idea, uncertainty, scenarios, and scenarios planning in organizations.
++ The practice of scenario planning- practitioner's art, articulating the business idea, competitive positioning, scenario development, and option planning.
++ Institutionalizing scenario planning- the management of change, planning processes, and guiding the strategic conversation.
Strengths include: the credibility and rigor of content (the author has 35 years experience in this field!); the attractive style and presentation; the sets of checklist & guidance for those embarking on scenario planning exercises; and extremely relevant tools for senior managers (and whole organizations) to avoid "analysis-paralysis" number-crunching or Las Vegas gambling on guesswork and charisma. The main weakness (to this reviewer) was a need for more case studies, and perhaps more occasional humor/lightheartedness.
Overall, a great text which goes very well with the high quality Gill Ringland's "Scenario Planning- Managing for the Future" (Wiley, 1998, ISBN 047197790X).
20 of 20 people found the following review helpful
Packed with Knowledge!
14 July 2005
Format:Hardcover
Many business books provide just enough information to whet executives' appetites for more advice accompanied by high consulting fees. Author Kees van der Heijden has written an exception. His comprehensive volume puts scenario building in historical context, explains its relationship to forecasting and tells you how to introduce scenario planning to your organization. Once you understand your corporate identity and your fundamental "Business Idea," he says, you can establish and enact informative scenarios that will prepare your company for several different versions of what lies ahead. In that way, scenario planning generates better decision making. We strongly recommend this book to top managers, strategists and planners, especially those who sense they're making decisions on the fly without having a structure for thinking deeply about future implications.
19 of 19 people found the following review helpful
A Life-Time's Experience in Scenarios and Corporate Strategy
14 July 1997
Format:Hardcover
What makes this book such high-value reading is not just the quality of the author's argument; it is the way in which he lets us participate in his wealth of experience gained over many years of conducting practical scenario work. Readers with a
professional background in corporate strategic planning will profit from this thoughtful exposition of accrued processual knowledge. Newcomers are offered a unique opportunity to make a direct shortcut to the results of a life-time's professional learning in this highly complex field of practice. This is not to say, of course, it could replace personal experience to be made
by each individual alone; however, Kees van der Heijden offers a clearly structured guide to the Whys and Hows of organizational learning based on the scenario approach to planning. (read more about this great book at http://www.unisg.ch/~sgzz/links/stp/futres/bookrev.htm)
professional background in corporate strategic planning will profit from this thoughtful exposition of accrued processual knowledge. Newcomers are offered a unique opportunity to make a direct shortcut to the results of a life-time's professional learning in this highly complex field of practice. This is not to say, of course, it could replace personal experience to be made
by each individual alone; however, Kees van der Heijden offers a clearly structured guide to the Whys and Hows of organizational learning based on the scenario approach to planning. (read more about this great book at http://www.unisg.ch/~sgzz/links/stp/futres/bookrev.htm)
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