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Models of the world are often used to anticipate "real life". Read the first page
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Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index
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The examples and case studies read like a patched-together compilation of other people's writings. There are huge differences in style, voice, and detail which make the examples difficult to compare and contrast. Actually, it makes them difficult to read. The balance of the book would really have benefitted from a re-write and some further research into the examples and case studies.
If you are interested in developing and using scenarios check out the Van Der Heijden book - "Scenarios - the Art of Strategic Conversation." Also, "the Art of the Long View" by Peter Scwartz is a great introduction to developing and using scenarios.
The attractively illustrated, deep resources span:
++ Part 1 (a standalone "book")- history and background of scenario planning (SP); current state of the art; ICL use of SP in projects; examples of SP (including 2 day workshop at world-class Manufacturing Systems Integration Research Institute at Loughborough University, UK); and learning.
++ Part 2- describes various approaches - BASICS, CSM, STRAT*X, Copenhagen Institute, EC,, French School, Futures Group, Global Business Network, NCI, and SRI.
++Part 3- case studies for range of approaches used across sectors- British Airways, Cable & Wireless, ECRC, Electrolux, UK National Health Service, KNRONE, Shell and United Distillers.
++ Part 4- scenarios- ICL, the Internet, Telecoms industry, Shell, Hemingford, and 21st Century Organizations.
Despite covering a very broad and deep content, the structure, style, and excellent use of sidebars/charts/lists/ and "glue" (or linking text) make this a very approachable working book & reference source for the scenario planning. The emphasis is on practicality, rather than theory, as befitting an author with significant practical experience. The only complaint, is that sometimes too much detail is given (reading a bit like a lab-report- the author's a physicist, after all!).
Overall, a great practical text which goes very well with the high quality and more abstract view (less case studies, more emphasis on process) in Kee Van Der Heijden's "Scenario's- The Art of Strategic Conversation" (Wiley, 1997, ISBN 0471966398).
Hardly anyone these days has the time to read a 400-page book. Fortunately, Ringland has structured Scenario Planning to make it easy to pick out just what the reader needs. The variety of approaches explained and the range of case studies and examples is like a large menu from which the reader can choose just the tidbits desired. A well-balanced reading of selected chapters will provide all the essential elements needed to understand scenario planning. On the other hand, the book's main shortcoming arises from its breadth. No one approach is explained in sufficient detail to create a systematic and thorough understanding of any particular method. Such detail can make for tedious reading and may be unnecessary. But if you want to drill down to minute details, skimming Ringland's book will be a great warm-up before tackling Van der Heijen's book.
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