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The Return of History and the End of Dreams (Paperback)

by Robert Kagan (Author)
3.6 out of 5 stars See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
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Product details

  • Paperback: 128 pages
  • Publisher: Atlantic Books (1 Mar 2009)
  • Language English
  • ISBN-10: 1843548127
  • ISBN-13: 978-1843548126
  • Product Dimensions: 19.2 x 12.8 x 1.6 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.6 out of 5 stars See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
  • Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 77,324 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Review
"'In this important, timely, and superblywritten book, Robert Kagan shows that the "end of history" was an illusion. Today's global challenges pose a stern test for the world's democracies. This book is a wake-up call and should be read by policymakers, politicians, pundits and all who want a guide to the dangerous waters of 21st century geopolitics.' Senator John McCain 'Robert Kagan is the reigning pundit of great power politics.' TLS 'Subtle and deep' Economist 'A book demanding to be read' Independent 'Essential reading' Spectator 'Kagan does big-picture thinking in a way that eludes his British counterparts'. Observer"

Senator John McCain
'Important, timely, and superbly-written... This book is a wake-up call and should be read by policymakers, politicians, pundits and all who want a guide to the dangerous waters of 21st-century geopolitics.' --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

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46 of 47 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars Very good challenge to "clash of civilizations" theory, 14 Jun 2008
By M. McManus - See all my reviews
(TOP 1000 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)      
This review is from: The Return of History and the End of Dreams (Hardcover)
Kagan argues that the world is not divided by religion or race as Samuel Huntingdon's 'clash of civilizations' theory suggests and the modern trouble with Islam/West seems to vindicate. Rather he argues the real division in modern geopolitics is between democracies and autocracies, with places like the USA, Europe and Japan on one side, and countries like China, Russia and Iran on the other. As he explicitly states in the book, "But in today's world, a nation's form of government, not its `civilization' or its geographic location, maybe the best predictor of its geopolitical alignment". For example, China and Japan may have a shared Asian culture, but one is a democracy and the other is an autocracy, therefore, Japan will have more in common with another democracy, even if it is not culturally similar, that it will with China.

He argues that the autocracies are dangerous, not just because of their oppressive internal policies, but because they typically are experiencing rapid economic growth. This allows them to fund a more powerful and threatening military with which to threaten democracies: Russia's booming oil wealth has seen it pick fights with the EU and send nuclear bombers on training runs on Western cities, and China makes increasingly murderous demands on Taiwain. Also their economic success in the absence of democracy could lead other countries to emulate their autocratic rule as a means of imitating their success, and there are the beginnings of this in places like Venezuela.

Kagan acknowledges that one autocracy can have friction with another autocracy: for example, Russia and China may distrust each other over their mutual ambitions in Siberia. He also acknowledges that democracies can have friction with each other: for example, the bitter exchanges between the US and France on the eve of the Iraq war. However, Kagan's key point is that when push comes to shove, a democracy will always side with a democracy in conflict with an autocracy, and an autocracy will always side with an autocracy in a conflict with a democracy.

Perhaps most controversially, Kagan accuse the UN of sheltering autocracies under the guise of sovereignty. Also, China and Russia are permanent Security Council members with the veto, and thus can protect other client autocracies like Sudan and Turkmenistan from UN action. To solve this, Kagan advocates setting up a "League of Democracies", where democratic countries can co-ordinate policies for dealing with autocracies that compliment the UN, but which in fact will probably be an alternative to it. He claims the autocracies have already set up a "League of Autocracies" under the guise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which in his eyes is nothing more a Warsaw Pact for the 21st century which needs to be countered.

The book is not without weaknesses. Firstly, Kagan's plan for a League of Democracies is unconvincing on two levels. Firstly, it is hard to see how such a structure could be set up without it being seen as an alternative to the UN rather than a compliment. Secondly, democratic countries often have rivalries and friction with each other, for example France and America have a mutual hostility, and bitter memories of their clashes before the Iraq war. Kagan seems to dismiss these as trivial rivalries, but it is hard to see how such clashes would be avoided within his League of Democracies. Kagan's dismissive claim that democracies will overcome these due to greater fears of the autocracies are, in my view, unconvincing.

All in all, the book is an interesting overview of a reality that undoubtedly puzzles some political thinkers, and is well worth a read.
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25 of 27 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars Worst of all possible worlds?, 18 Jul 2008
By Pieter "Toypom" (Johannesburg) - See all my reviews
(TOP 10 REVIEWER)   
This review is from: The Return of History and the End of Dreams (Hardcover)
This is a perceptive and far-sighted examination on the state of global politics as the decade approaches its end, in the form of an extended essay. A new axis of evil is rising in opposition to the West, one not guided by a shared ideology except in so far as hostility to the rule of law and democracy might be considered ideological. Kagan predicts that the future will see the return of nationalism, growing tensions and confrontation between the forces of democracy and autocracy. What matters is a nation's nature of government, he observes, not its culture, religion or geographic location; and this will determine its international alignment. While not dismissing the terrorist threat, he does not consider it a primary menace as history proves that modernity has never lost against the traditionalism represented by the Islamists. True, but terrorism might have unintended consequences in the formation of alliances and the development of state structures.

It is interesting to compare Kagan's analysis with Margaret Thatcher's Statecraft, published in 2002, in which she assessed the state of the world and possible future trajectories. In chapters 3 and 4 of her book Thatcher looks at Russia and the Asian Giants China (including Taiwan and Hong Kong) and India. Rogue states, religion and terrorism are discussed in chapter 6, with particular reference to North Korea, Islam, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Iran. Another must-read: The New Cold War by Edward Lucas, already confirms Kagan's view. Russia is pursuing policies that threaten its own citizens, neighboring states and the world at large. Lucas takes a hard look at the ruling elite which emerged almost entirely from the ranks of the old KGB. This dominant class harbors resentment against the West as a whole in an interesting parallel to the hostility of the Brussels Eurocracy towards the USA and Israel. The Russian government now openly competes with the West on the economic and political fronts.

Freedom of expression and the rule of law exist in name only; the state controls all the economic activity, political institutions and media that matter. Putin's term "managed" or "sovereign" democracy really means a malignant form of Czarism. Despite Russia's demographic implosion, pervasive corruption and widespread lawlessness, a new cold war is being waged. Not only has the country displayed thuggish behavior against Ukraine, Moldova, Estonia, Georgia and the UK in the Litvinenko case, it is supplying arms to rogue states Iran and Syria and their terrorist proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. Anna Politkovskaya's A Russian Diary: A Journalist's Final Account of Life, Corruption, and Death in Putin's Russia exposes the mentality and incompetence of the ruling class.

The geopolitical implications are staggering, as the Putin gang eagerly befriends all enemies of the West. Evidence is accumulating that Russia seeks an alliance with the Islamic world and a partial restoration of the Soviet Empire through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) of which China is a member. The Kremlin ignores the long-term threat from China despite the particularly drastic demographic and infrastructural implosion in Russia's Far East. Whatever other evils follow from Russia's abandonment of Western values, it is sure to become a more barbaric society for its citizens and a considerably more dangerous international player. One may confidently expect it to supply Iran with nuclear weapons technology and to support every loathsome thugocracy that defiles the planet.

Russia is pursuing an energy policy aimed at strangling the liberal democracies by e.g. establishing a gas cartel. An expanded SCO that includes Iran, other Middle Eastern and African states like Libya and Sudan, plus Venezuela is a real possibility. Kagan correctly identifies it as a revived Warsaw Pact. The SCO will lock the Turkic speaking states of Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (plus Persian Tajikistan) firmly in the bear's embrace. The future role of Turkey will be crucial; it remains to be seen how its current pro-religious government will adapt its foreign policy as reaction to the country's certain exclusion from the European inner core. Economic ties to Europe are of course assured but the country might significantly upgrade relations with the Central Asian states and the SCO.

Kagan foresees closer future ties between the USA, India and Japan, rather than a larger role for NATO. Echoing the idea expressed in The UN and Beyond: United Democratic Nations (edited by Anne Bayefsky), Kagan proposes the same type of international organization consisting of democratic states co-coordinating their policies. Perhaps he underestimates the ambition of the Brussels Eurocracy and its resentment of the US. The likelihood of all 27 states uniting is slim, but prospects for closer union of a core group including Germany, France, the Benelux countries, Italy, Spain and a few others are bright. Such a restructuring could be triggered by many factors like the refusal of current member states to relinquish further sovereignty, economic problems or security concerns. While retaining nominal autonomy, the other countries of Europe will undoubtedly accept the Superstate's foreign policy. The loss of the UK will diminish the Anglosphere whilst an alliance with India and Japan might formidably enhance its influence and assure its strategic advantage of continued dominance over three of the world's oceans.

One fact is certain: the USA follows the siren calls of isolationism at its great peril. And the paranoids that tried to demonize the "Hyperpower" will look back on the period of American "hegemony" with affection and nostalgia once the dynamics of the new multipolar world become clear. What distinguishes Kagan's conclusions from the discredited popular notions of the 90s - Fukuyama's fatuous futurology and Huntington's culturally based theory - is that elements of it have already begun to unfold. How comfortable the decade of the Clintons now seems in comparison to contemporary trends. Kagan's book is alarming and unsettling but a much needed tonic for identifying, and preparing for, the coming challenges.
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31 of 35 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Insightful, pithy, brilliant., 30 April 2008
By P. Schneider-sikorsky (UK) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   
This review is from: The Return of History and the End of Dreams (Hardcover)
Any Bob Kagan fan will be receptive to and familiar with many of the arguments and analyses set forth in this essay, but to have these beautifully articulated in a mere 100 pages is a veritable treat. This should be required reading for every western politician.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

2.0 out of 5 stars Pre-school Politics
The main selling point of this book is that it manages to simplify a nuanced and complex issue into black and white- the neocon way of dealing with foreign affairs. Read more
Published 28 days ago by Mr. R. G. P. Amos

4.0 out of 5 stars Forceful, sobering, but is it the whole picture?
Robert Kagan blows up Francis Fukuyama's reasoning in "The End of History and the Last Man". He forcefully argues for a sort of new "Cold War", based on the spiritedness and... Read more
Published 1 month ago by Thierry de Preux

3.0 out of 5 stars Good but basic
The book is a whistlestop tour of modern international politics. I feel it is a good basic introduction to the subject but lacks any real depth. Read more
Published 2 months ago by Mr X

5.0 out of 5 stars Facing reality
It is a sobering book. Indeed, there are no universal values that guide the activities of democratic countries and autocratic regional powers like China, Russia and Iran. Read more
Published 6 months ago by Heino Viik

4.0 out of 5 stars Good book; flawed conclusions


The fall of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union led to many optimistic pronouncements on global politics: we had the peace dividend, the... Read more
Published 11 months ago by Steve Keen

4.0 out of 5 stars Baby it's a Wild World
This far-sighted examination of global politics identifies a new axis of evil rising in opposition to the West, based on rejection of democracy and the rule of law. Read more
Published 12 months ago by Pieter

1.0 out of 5 stars Poorly-written, historically weak, and worst of all, yet more warmongering!
Robert Kagan worked in the US State Department from 1984 to 1998, and was a co-founder of the Project for the New American Century (PNAC). Read more
Published 13 months ago by William Podmore

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