- Paperback: 230 pages
- Publisher: Abacus; New edition edition (2 Mar 2000)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 0349112479
- ISBN-13: 978-0349112473
- Product Dimensions: 19.6 x 12.2 x 1.6 cm
- Average Customer Review: 3.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 2,044,351 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Product Description
Amazon.co.uk Review
In a universe infinitely large, what is the probability of intelligent life on another planet? Sounds like a trick question, but for anyone versed in cosmology and statistics, the answer is 1; that is, there must be life on at least one other planet in the universe. This is Amir Aczel's theorem. But, as physicist Enrico Fermi once asked, if that's true, where is everyone? Aczel tackles that paradox after he goes through the statistical calculations for the probability of intelligent life, considering factors such as how many stars are in a galaxy, how many of those stars might be hospitable, how many might have planets, and how many planets might have environments suitable to support life as we know it (or as we don't).
Aczel also provides an overview of the relevant developments in astronomy and biology, laying the groundwork to show that the universe's chemistry must add up to life. Whether life was spread through the universe by chunks of debris like ALH84001--the enigmatic meteorite from Mars that contained tantalising hints of the possibility of life--or arose independently, Aczel is sure it is out there. After teasing readers with scientific history, Probability 1 delivers on its promise to prove Aczel's conjecture through a clearly explained application of known statistical theory to the chaos of the universe.--Therese Littleton, Amazon.com --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
Review
'The argument is wholly convincing and Aczel presents it in absorbing style, taking us through science and mathematics with commendable lucidity.' FINANCIAL TIMES In a universe infinitely large, what is the probability of intelligent life on another planet? Sounds like a trick question, but for anyone versed in cosmology and statistics, the answer is 1; that is, there must be life on at least one other planet in the universe. This is Amir Aczel's theorem. But, as physicist Enrico Fermi once asked, if that's true, where is everyone? Aczel tackles that paradox after he goes through the statistical calculations for the probability of intelligent life, considering factors such as how many stars are in a galaxy, how many of those stars might be hospitable, how many might have planets, and how many planets might have environments suitable to support life as we know it (or as we don't). Aczel also provides an overview of the relevant developments in astronomy and biology, laying the groundwork to show that the universe's chemistry must add up to life. Whether life was spread through the universe by chunks of debris like ALH84001--the enigmatic meteorite from Mars that contained tantalising hints of the possibility of life--or arose independently, Aczel is sure it is out there. After teasing readers with scientific history, Probability 1 delivers on its promise to prove Aczel's conjecture through a clearly explained application of known statistical theory to the chaos of the universe.' - Therese Littleton, AMAZON.COM
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Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
While I agree with the premise that Prof. Aczel is trying to get across, his arguments do it no favours. The issues are often clouded in an attempt to make the argument accessable. In short: if you know anything at all about science, this book has nothing to teach you. If you don't know anything, you could read far better introductions.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
In this book we are confronted with the real prospect that, not only are we not alone in the universe, but that the galaxy and indeed the universe is teeming with life.
In a book that is hard to put down once one has begun reading, Amir Aczel vividly tells us of our own insignificance in the cosmos, and that life in probable if not inevitable on other worlds
A must read.
Format:Paperback
I enjoyed Amir Aczel's book in as much as it was a fairly well-written review of our current knowledge of the potential for intelligent extra-terrestrial life. However, Aczel is a professor of statistics, and perhaps in an effort to make his book stand out from the crowd, he ends with an unconvincing statistical argument that intelligent life must exist elsewhere. His argument boils down to this - we exist, therefore there is a chance of intelligent life evolving. Since there are so many stars in the known universe, it doesn't matter how small that chance is, because with so many stars there simply must be other intelligent lifeforms. Hmmm. Read the book, and judge for yourself!
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