Prediction
and over one million other books are available for Amazon Kindle .
Learn more
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Did you know you can trade in your old books for an Amazon.co.uk Gift Card to spend on the things you want? Plus, get an extra £5 Gift Certificate when you trade in books worth £10 or more before June 30, 2012. Visit the Books Trade-In Store for more details. |
Frequently Bought Together
Product details
|
Product Description
Review
'In an extraordinary range of applications, from ancient history to tomorrow's headlines, Bueno de Mesquita demonstrates the power of the game-theoretic approach.' --Roger B. Myerson, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor, University of Chicago
'No one will fail to appreciate and learn from this well-written and always interesting account of his procedures.' --Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor Emeritus, Stanford University
'Organized thought applied to problems can illuminate and help solve them. This easy and enjoyable read is, in many ways, a how-to book for that very purpose.'
--George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State
`a fascinating new book' --The Times
`Mesquita offers zingily provocative contemporary policy ideas.' --The Guardian
"An interesting account of how one can approach apparently diverse situations."
--BBC Focus Magazine
'No one will fail to appreciate and learn from this well-written and always interesting account of his procedures.' --Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor Emeritus, Stanford University
'Organized thought applied to problems can illuminate and help solve them. This easy and enjoyable read is, in many ways, a how-to book for that very purpose.'
--George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State
`a fascinating new book' --The Times
`Mesquita offers zingily provocative contemporary policy ideas.' --The Guardian
"An interesting account of how one can approach apparently diverse situations."
--BBC Focus Magazine
Book Description
A dazzling, provocative and utterly engrossing account of how one man is able to predict the future.
Inside This Book
(Learn More)
Tags Customers Associate with This Product(What's this?)Click on a tag to find related items, discussions, and people.
|
What Other Items Do Customers Buy After Viewing This Item?
Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
9 of 9 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This is an interesting book to read.
The Author explains how he has used Game Theory to predict the outcome of events; in some cases, to change the outcome of events to favour his clients. The principle of Game Theory in his book is that people always remain human and self-interested no matter what their situation or nationality or religion. He emphasises that the process is entirely mathematical and logical and does not rely upon opinions other than in the assessment of the player's self-interests and their saliency to the outcome.
The results of the modelling are often counter-intuitive and run against the outcomes predicted by experts, yet they prove to be correct. He claims that his success rate is better than 90% (which is better than that achieved by experts).
The book is a good reading. It will not suit everyone but will appeal to anyone who wants to know about how to predict or influence outcomes. Businessmen should like this book.
Sadly the book has some weaknesses.
The first is that there is only a superficial explanation about how to make the predictions.
Second, there is nothing of any substance about the maths of Game Theory or how to apply it. Apart from some excellent advice on how to buy the new car you want (or anything else) at the lowest price, the book is short on practical advice (unless it is to hire the Author).
The third weakness is that he has had to disguise the identity of his clients. Although this is understandable, it makes the stories dull and stodgy to follow.
An excellent book, but don't expect to be better able to predict or influence outcomes after reading it, unless you plan to buy a car (superb advice) or hire the Author. Having said that, if you plan to buy a car, the saving will pay for the book.
The Author explains how he has used Game Theory to predict the outcome of events; in some cases, to change the outcome of events to favour his clients. The principle of Game Theory in his book is that people always remain human and self-interested no matter what their situation or nationality or religion. He emphasises that the process is entirely mathematical and logical and does not rely upon opinions other than in the assessment of the player's self-interests and their saliency to the outcome.
The results of the modelling are often counter-intuitive and run against the outcomes predicted by experts, yet they prove to be correct. He claims that his success rate is better than 90% (which is better than that achieved by experts).
The book is a good reading. It will not suit everyone but will appeal to anyone who wants to know about how to predict or influence outcomes. Businessmen should like this book.
Sadly the book has some weaknesses.
The first is that there is only a superficial explanation about how to make the predictions.
Second, there is nothing of any substance about the maths of Game Theory or how to apply it. Apart from some excellent advice on how to buy the new car you want (or anything else) at the lowest price, the book is short on practical advice (unless it is to hire the Author).
The third weakness is that he has had to disguise the identity of his clients. Although this is understandable, it makes the stories dull and stodgy to follow.
An excellent book, but don't expect to be better able to predict or influence outcomes after reading it, unless you plan to buy a car (superb advice) or hire the Author. Having said that, if you plan to buy a car, the saving will pay for the book.
8 of 9 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This book feels a little like watching Jaws and never seeing the shark. There are references to the brilliance of the game theory model used but without any real detail. For me, it rendered the book an exercise in self-congratulation ("see how I got it right even when everyone else said something else").
Even the parts of the puzzle that are explained seem to require a huge amount of intricate subject knowledge and rely on some circular logic. Basically you need to know - or be able to predict - the desire and influence level of every single party involved in the decision making process (unlikely) and the outcome needs to be stated as a straight line with extremes of opinion at either end (very restrictive). But surely being able to know what people want is part of the problem and need for prediction? How can anyone but the very closest of observers be in certain posession of those facts for all involved? In which case, one is left having to *predict* those desires and influence levels. And so we return to square one.
A better subtitle would have been "You too can predict outcomes when you know absolutely everything there is to know about every single party in the process and you have a black box like mine which I'm not going to tell you about".
Even the parts of the puzzle that are explained seem to require a huge amount of intricate subject knowledge and rely on some circular logic. Basically you need to know - or be able to predict - the desire and influence level of every single party involved in the decision making process (unlikely) and the outcome needs to be stated as a straight line with extremes of opinion at either end (very restrictive). But surely being able to know what people want is part of the problem and need for prediction? How can anyone but the very closest of observers be in certain posession of those facts for all involved? In which case, one is left having to *predict* those desires and influence levels. And so we return to square one.
A better subtitle would have been "You too can predict outcomes when you know absolutely everything there is to know about every single party in the process and you have a black box like mine which I'm not going to tell you about".
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
I've yet to come across a 10/10 book on Game Theory.
They all look to me half-baked, unfinished white papers of unfulfilled promises.
This one is a bit better, but still leaves a bit to be desired. Starts strong, sags in the middle then picks up again at the very end.
The fabled 'model' is not presented in any shape or form, just references to its brilliance - rather annoying...
They all look to me half-baked, unfinished white papers of unfulfilled promises.
This one is a bit better, but still leaves a bit to be desired. Starts strong, sags in the middle then picks up again at the very end.
The fabled 'model' is not presented in any shape or form, just references to its brilliance - rather annoying...
Most Recent Customer Reviews
Books
I personally have no idea what this is all about as I bought it as a gift. However the recipient of the gift was delighted with it.
Published 5 months ago by Mrs. M. Finn
Insight into how big decisions are made and can be influenced
I had been looking for ways to influence people when I heard Bruce Bueno de Mesquita talking about his game theory on the radio, and decided to go to a lecture he was giving, when... Read more
Published on 31 Dec 2009 by Hobgoblin Son
Customer Discussions
|
This product's forum
Active discussions in related forums
Search Customer Discussions
|
Related forums
|
Listmania!
Look for similar items by category
Look for similar items by subject
Feedback
- Would you like to update product info or give feedback on images?
- I am the Author, and I want to comment on my book.
- I am the Publisher, and I want to comment on this book.
|
