on 17 May 2011
This is well-written, thought provoking. Best of all, it gives lots and lots of practical examples of where something was 'obviously' going to happen and then did, to the complete surprise of those to whom it happened. I'd have liked to have seen a bit more acknowledgement and discussion around how to distinguish between 'obvious' things that actually don't happen and those that do. For example, there's a fab illustration of how it was utterly predictable that terrorists would hijack a plane and fly it into a building based on previous cases. But lots of other things seem utterly predictable, with 100% hindsight. Nevertheless, a great book that I've used quite a lot in essays on resilience issues.