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Product Description
"Precision ... Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Horse Racing" thoroughly discusses the mathematical and statistical methods in handicapping and betting techniques. Differentiations, combinatorics, normal distribution, kernel smoothing and other mathematical and statistical tools are introduced. The jargons and equations are kept to a minimum so that it is easy to understand for most readers. More than 20 professional programs are freely available to download, which can allow readers to easily apply the methodology introduced in the book.
This book can be divided into three main parts: horse handicapping (Chapters 2-6), wagering (Chapters 7-9) and theories in practices (Chapters 10-11). Chapter 1 will explain why long term gains are possible in horse racing. About horse handicapping, we will start with analysing racing forms in Chapter 2. Other handicapping factors such as weight carried, jockeys, trainers and pedigrees will be discussed in Chapter 3. Some advanced statistical methods, such as chi-square test and kernel smoothing, will be introduced in Chapter 4 to further analyse those handicapping factors discussed in previous chapters. The following two chapters are about probability estimations. In Chapter 5, normal distribution and multinominal logistic regression are introduced in estimating winning probability of each race horse. In Chapter 6, we will talk about some methods in misconceptions in estimating placed probability.
Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. To hit exotic pools, those theories in combinatorics in Chapter 9 will definitely help the readers. The author will share his experiences in betting syndicate in Chapter 10, and tell you how to be a successful professional horseplayer in the last Chapter.
Some readers may find the mathematics in this book difficult, but the free program will take your pain away and do all the calculations. You can simply apply all the professional formulae by no more than a click, and pick your horses like an expert analyst.
As an awardee in Asian-Pacific Mathematics Olympiad, the author abandoned his career as an actuary and became a key member in a gambling syndicate. This book was reprinted in the 4th edition in Hong Kong, ranked #2 in the best-selling chart in the international Chinese weekly Yazhou Zhoukan, and now available worldwide.
This book can be divided into three main parts: horse handicapping (Chapters 2-6), wagering (Chapters 7-9) and theories in practices (Chapters 10-11). Chapter 1 will explain why long term gains are possible in horse racing. About horse handicapping, we will start with analysing racing forms in Chapter 2. Other handicapping factors such as weight carried, jockeys, trainers and pedigrees will be discussed in Chapter 3. Some advanced statistical methods, such as chi-square test and kernel smoothing, will be introduced in Chapter 4 to further analyse those handicapping factors discussed in previous chapters. The following two chapters are about probability estimations. In Chapter 5, normal distribution and multinominal logistic regression are introduced in estimating winning probability of each race horse. In Chapter 6, we will talk about some methods in misconceptions in estimating placed probability.
Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. To hit exotic pools, those theories in combinatorics in Chapter 9 will definitely help the readers. The author will share his experiences in betting syndicate in Chapter 10, and tell you how to be a successful professional horseplayer in the last Chapter.
Some readers may find the mathematics in this book difficult, but the free program will take your pain away and do all the calculations. You can simply apply all the professional formulae by no more than a click, and pick your horses like an expert analyst.
As an awardee in Asian-Pacific Mathematics Olympiad, the author abandoned his career as an actuary and became a key member in a gambling syndicate. This book was reprinted in the 4th edition in Hong Kong, ranked #2 in the best-selling chart in the international Chinese weekly Yazhou Zhoukan, and now available worldwide.
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9 reviews
16 of 16 people found the following review helpful
A new perspective with new insight.
26 April 2011
Format:Hardcover
I find this book is very helpful to give new perspective on assessing horse races. All the other books I have fail to describe why their selected example winners aren't just luck, this book shows why.
He uses plenty of examples to describe how you go about choosing your performance factors based on hard measured figures, then how to estimate the probability and find overlays. Importantly he shows how to identify which factors matter and those that don't. If you want to follow the maths, it can be heavy going, but the excel programs do the heavy lifting for you. There's enough layman explanations to keep you up to speed so you know what he is trying to show. There's also some interesting war stories about what it's like on the inside of a betting syndicate.
If you want to round out your betting knowledge but don't know excel this will be your best excuse to learn it! The book definitely covers material that I've never seen published elsewhere. This will be a reference along side my Automated Exchange betting and Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets.
I think this will help anyone trying to get to grips with the maths of gambling, its examples are from Hong Kong racing but the practical application of underlying principles can be applied to all sorts of markets.
He uses plenty of examples to describe how you go about choosing your performance factors based on hard measured figures, then how to estimate the probability and find overlays. Importantly he shows how to identify which factors matter and those that don't. If you want to follow the maths, it can be heavy going, but the excel programs do the heavy lifting for you. There's enough layman explanations to keep you up to speed so you know what he is trying to show. There's also some interesting war stories about what it's like on the inside of a betting syndicate.
If you want to round out your betting knowledge but don't know excel this will be your best excuse to learn it! The book definitely covers material that I've never seen published elsewhere. This will be a reference along side my Automated Exchange betting and Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets.
I think this will help anyone trying to get to grips with the maths of gambling, its examples are from Hong Kong racing but the practical application of underlying principles can be applied to all sorts of markets.
18 of 20 people found the following review helpful
A great addition to betting literature
14 May 2011
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
A very enjoyable read from someone that plays the horseracing game in one of the world's centre of thoroughbred racing. What I enjoyed most is CXWong's effort to put together many ideas from the past and the present, and from the Western world as well as the Oriental world, and put them together in a nice and easy package for the reader to easily understand the concepts behind betting professionally on horse racing; this is probably one of the best effort I have seen anywhere. The author excels in the mathematics field, yet he is able to communicate in an everyday's language so that the reader do not have to be a maths genius to understand. Some of the content like Harville Formula (Chapter 6) and Kelly's Criterion (Chapter 7) are probably only for serious players who have a strong foundation in mathematics, yet there are also enough materials (e.g. Handicapping Factors in Chapter 2 and 3, and character of successful professional horseplayer in Chapter 11) to satisfy any regular horseracing player. Hong Kong racing is famous for its exotic pools opportunities; CXWong has provide in depth analyses and recommendations into various plays available in betting into pools involving a single race as well as multiple races. Again I applaud his effort here as I believe he is the first person to make a serious attempt to indulge into this area; it will be very difficult to find such information elsewhere. The book is written in the context of Hong Kong racing, yet readers from anywhere in the world should find a lot of ideas and information applicable to racing and other games elsewhere in the world.
6 of 6 people found the following review helpful
This is a Hard Read
27 Dec 2011
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
This book is a hard read. First, it was originally written in Chinese and it is clear that the translator's first language is not English, because the grammar is incorrect in places. Next, it is written at above high school reading level and covers statistics formulas that can be difficult to understand at first (at least they were for me). However, I believe this can be a very valuable resource. If you already have an understanding of handicapping and are willing to do the work to learn the statistical formulas presented in the book, then I believe you can wager profitably at the racetrack.
If you are looking for a book to teach you handicapping skills, then this book is not for you. However, if you already have a good knowledge of handicapping and are looking for something to help your wagering become profitable, then perhaps you should give this book a look.
If you are looking for a book to teach you handicapping skills, then this book is not for you. However, if you already have a good knowledge of handicapping and are looking for something to help your wagering become profitable, then perhaps you should give this book a look.
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