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Next 100 Years, The [Hardcover]

George Friedman
3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (37 customer reviews)

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Book Description

3 July 2009
This book is a New York Times Bestseller. 'Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-terms shifts taking place in full view of the world' - George Friedman. In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future - offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. "The Next 100 Years" draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era - with changes in store, including: The US-jihadist war will conclude, replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia; China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power; a new global war will unfold between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly; and the United States will experience a golden age in the second half of the century.


Product details

  • Hardcover: 258 pages
  • Publisher: ALLISON & BUSBY (3 July 2009)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0749007621
  • ISBN-13: 978-0749007621
  • Product Dimensions: 23.6 x 15.6 x 3 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (37 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 466,756 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Review

'Fascinating because of its dismissal of the conventional wisdom' New York Post 'Mr Friedman's work warrants the investment of an evening of careful reading' Washington Times

About the Author

GEORGE FRIEDMAN is the founder and CEO of STRATFOR, the world’s leading private intelligence and forecasting company. He is frequently called upon as a media expert and is the author of four books, including most recently America’s Secret War, and numerous articles on national security, information warfare, computer security, and the intelligence business. He lives in Austin, Texas.

--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews
13 of 14 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars The Audacity of Hope 30 Mar 2010
By Ed Foye
Format:Paperback|Verified Purchase
It's not unsurprising that this book was a bestseller in the United States. This book postulates the shape of the 21st century and just what might happen. In 13 chapters, the author presents his opinion that this is the age of America. The war on terrorism: a counterfuge to stop the emergence of an Islamic superpower. The growth of China: a myth that will all fall apart very soon due to the inherent divisions and instability of the country. A United States of Europe: another myth- instead Poland will become a strong regional power whilst Germany fragments. Turkey: a potential powerhouse that will try to and fail to take over Europe and be severely punished as a result.

The thoughts of Friedman are probably wrong. Certainly they present a rosy view of the future for Americans- and who doesn't want to believe it. Yet for all its shortcomings, this book is no modern Nostradamus. Instead the text is easy to read and very entertaining and even if his predictions are far from accurate they at least will give the reader food for thought.
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49 of 56 people found the following review helpful
1.0 out of 5 stars Big disappointment! 6 Jan 2010
Format:Paperback
Friedman totally misses the point by contradicting his own opening statements about "identifying long-term underlying trends". He bases the whole book on misguided assumptions and geo-politics. Alvin Toffler pointed out 20 years ago that geo-politics is on the way out...
The real "long-term underlying trends" are not about "dominating sea-trade"! And they are not about waging wars. Friedman thinks that "unconventional wars" are about shooting it out in spaceships. That is "Flash Gordon thinking", not forecasting...
Unconventional wars are actually about guerilla warfare, terrorism, inciting civil unrest, hacking computers. Looking into the next 100 years, the real questions are about how will countries try to exert influence over one another? How will economic disputes be resolved? Will missile threats be replaced by cyber-threats? Or by an attack on a country's currency? What about biological threats, like spreading H1N1 virus?
Friedman assumes that history will repeat itself in the same way. Big mistake. History sometimes repeats itself (not as often as people are led to think), but always in a different shape or form. Japan will not go to war against the US. Poland will not spark another war in Europe. Turkey will not try to re-enact the Otoman Empire. These are all ridiculous forecasts based on 19th Century assumptions.
A forecast of the next 100 years should challenge us to think about what kind of political issues will be relevant. For instance:
1. Will we move from a "bi-polar" world (20th Century US capitalism versus Russian communism) towards a truly multi-lateral world in which five blocks will have almost equal economic power, without clear dominance of one over the others? (US, Europe, China, India, South America?).
2.
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7 of 8 people found the following review helpful
By Donald Mitchell HALL OF FAME TOP 500 REVIEWER VINE VOICE
Format:Hardcover
No one can forecast what the weather will be next week in most parts of the world, why would anyone think that forecasting what nations will do in detail over 70 years is possible? George Friedman doesn't think it's possible either, but the exercise presents the opportunity to identify sources of potential future conflicts and alliances on the geopolitical stage. Thinking about those issues is well worth considering. An ounce of prevention may just help avoid tons of regret in some cases.

George Friedman believes that considerations of potential military defense and offense, access to needed raw materials and markets, demographics, political strengths and weaknesses, technology, and national economic interests can be combined to imagine how future leaders will see their situations and how well they will be able to handle old and new challenges vis-à-vis their neighbors and competitors. From those sources, he identifies factors that will probably be important which include:

1. Increasing importance of having access to shipping via the oceans due to ever-expanding global trade.

2. Continued U.S. dominance of the oceans.

3. Political and social weaknesses in China and Russia that will cause those nations to weaken and fragment.

4. Decline in population size in developed countries requiring pro-immigration strategies to stay competitive.

5. Emergence of space-based warfare and energy generation to shift the basis of national competition.

6. Robotics replacing less-skilled workers throughout the world creating a wave of unemployment.

7. Aggressive geographical expansions of influence by nations which are bounded by weak countries.

8.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent book - could not put it down! 23 May 2011
Format:Paperback
I bought this book with some trepidation based on some of the other reviews. The main criticsm seems to be that the book is too American-centric. However, the author makes clear from the beginning why this is so, and how it will influence the remainder of this century.

"The Next 100 Years" then proceeds to consider current facts and trends in geography, demography and culture, and extrapolates these quite reasonably until about 2040. From this point, things become much more foggy: the author predicts a war between America and a Turkish-Japanese alliance, at which point the book's narrative style tends more to storytelling of this scenario - As the author states, it is very difficult to make precise predictions at this point.

Disagree if you will, but I consider the basic application here of geography, demography and culture t ohow events will play out turns this book into a cracking read.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
great book
Published 2 months ago by vilko
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
This was recommended to me by an economist friend and it did not disappoint.
Published 3 months ago by Susan
5.0 out of 5 stars exciting
For myself and another as a present.
Both parties just loved it.
IF you ever look at the world of today and wonder - then this book is for you
Published 8 months ago by Thomas Millett
5.0 out of 5 stars Highly recommended
Fascinating, informative, well constructed and argued. Of course, no-one knows precisely what will happen in the future but this all rings true. Read more
Published 8 months ago by P. Borrington
3.0 out of 5 stars Next 100 years, The Forecast for the 21st Century
Good service from Amazon.

Book review: entertaining writing, but somewhat a talk up for Americans - what the author did not seem to forecast was/is the rise of China... Read more
Published 9 months ago by DP Lonchay
4.0 out of 5 stars Perhaps.
As of 2009 - 2010, the underlying arguments to this book are predicated on a reasonable interpretation of historical precedent, technological trends and the expectation that the... Read more
Published 10 months ago by S Smyth
2.0 out of 5 stars Don't bother
A fairly interesting read for the first few chapters but unfortunately it then becomes little more than a piece of US banner waving until it finally spins completely out of control... Read more
Published 12 months ago by cliffy
3.0 out of 5 stars interesting - some good insights - some way off base
I like the book - but Freidman misses the importance of the Renaissance in Europe and its role in driving the global domination of European powers from that period on. Read more
Published 13 months ago by Glenn Howard
2.0 out of 5 stars interesting concepts
So one more hundred years of American domination, surprised China will not rise to power or even India, time to buy into Turkey
Published 13 months ago by Paul Byrnes
3.0 out of 5 stars Thee Next Hundred Years
Its rather heavy going and towards the end develops into a Star Wars scenario which in the time scale, is fanciful
However the early pars makes sense though as it was... Read more
Published 14 months ago by Judge TW Lambet
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