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MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS(r) is a special version of Bob Clemen's best-selling text, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools(r) by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools(r). This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students to business and engineering.
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7 of 8 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
The textbook comes with an Excel Add-in package called Palisade Decision Tools Suite. It can be used with some limitations on capability for one year upon registration and then expires.
The book is written clearly and direct to the points. Influence Diagrams, Decision Trees, and Risk analysis are done along with the Palisade package. The theory is covered and even after the software expiration and a reader decides not to buy it, the book provides enough details to construct models in Excel or R (free statistical software/programming language), of course without fancy diagrams. A few of the figures show policy analysis but the demo package does not have this feature.
The book also serves as an introduction to probability and statistics (Ch9, 10) in the context of decision science with concrete examples. Each chapter ends with summary and references with helpful comments on each of them. Exercises are provided and selected answers are given in the back of the book. Overall, more decision tree examples are treated than influence diagram ones.
Another good book related to this one would be Practical Management Science by Winston and Albright. It provides nice Excel examples and also comes with Palisade Decision Tools Suite with the same restrictions as this book.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This book is divided into three equal-sized sections on modelling decisions, uncertainty and preferences. The decision section includes structuring with decision diagrams and decision trees and the process of developing sensitivity analysis and solving the decision problem. The book has been updated a few times, but its recommendations regarding software are inevitably out of date.
The uncertainty section is a good introduction to probability theory and the rules for manipulating probabilities. It describes how one might assess real-world probabilities of future events and continuous distributions, and overcome bias, but the description is thin. The book seems to rely instead on theoretical probability models and introduces the bionomial, Poisson, exponential, normal and beta distributions, material in my experience that is not entirely relevant to real-world decision problems. It also has a chapter on Monte Carlo simulation.
The preferences section is an academic and thorough discussion of utility theory and multi-attribute decision-making. However, it does not really do justice to the complex multi-dimensional trade-offs that occur in real situations.
For a university course I might use this book. For training businessmen, I prefer the much more practical Decision Analysis for the Professional.
The uncertainty section is a good introduction to probability theory and the rules for manipulating probabilities. It describes how one might assess real-world probabilities of future events and continuous distributions, and overcome bias, but the description is thin. The book seems to rely instead on theoretical probability models and introduces the bionomial, Poisson, exponential, normal and beta distributions, material in my experience that is not entirely relevant to real-world decision problems. It also has a chapter on Monte Carlo simulation.
The preferences section is an academic and thorough discussion of utility theory and multi-attribute decision-making. However, it does not really do justice to the complex multi-dimensional trade-offs that occur in real situations.
For a university course I might use this book. For training businessmen, I prefer the much more practical Decision Analysis for the Professional.
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
The book has the potential to look at decisions in a very different light. I am basing my dissertation on it.
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