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"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager′s toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today′s leading practitioners in the field." –Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario–based planning as comprehensively as this one." –David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning–the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." –David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." –Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind–stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." –George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
From the Inside Flap
Being able to anticipate and shape the future is the goal of every leader. "Fortune favors the prepared mind," wisely advised Louis Pasteur more than 100 years ago. So, how well do modern institutions prepare? In recent decades, leaders have often been caught unaware by momentous events–oil shortages and gluts, the collapse of the Soviet empire, and technology that quickly transformed whole industries. The age–old question is, how can organizations learn to anticipate and find opportunity in such sudden crises? The future will always be unpredictable, but with the right techniques it can be imagined and managed. Leading companies and governmental units have learned a way to think smarter about the future. The authors of Learning from the Future reveal how these innovative organizations harness imagination and strategic management techniques to create scenarios that simulate future opportunities and threats. Using these scenarios to test current decisions and get a jump start on building new capabilities for the future is a rich learning experience. This book makes preparing for unpredictable futures a practical part of every manager′s job. It shows how scenario learning readies companies for industry and market evolutions and customers′ new needs. Scenario learning envisions how industry segments may gain or lose profit potential, how certain technologies could dominate a market or fail to be accepted, how new trends could propel mass markets, what circumstances could derail a merger. This new foresight methodology is a critical source of business advantage. To help readers construct truly useful scenarios and learn from them, this book offers the latest insights of 25 internationally known scenario developers. Their case studies explore rapid technology innovation, regulatory destabilization, actions by new or traditional competitors, and investment opportunities. The authors′ previous book, The Portable MBA in Strategy, brought you the brightest and best ideas for winning in the marketplace of today and tomorrow. Now, by combining these proven methods of strategic management with scenario thinking, Liam Fahey and Robert M. Randall take you on a fast forward expedition–Learning from the Future.
Inside This Book
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First Sentence
It's time that organizations reexamine how they anticipate and prepare for the future. Read the first page
Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
It's time that organizations reexamine how they anticipate and prepare for the future. Read the first page
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Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
Many, if not most, corporations try to utilize scenario planning in their strategy process. All too frequently, these efforts become routine: what if we increase (decrease) marketing budgets by 10%? What if raw material prices go up (down)? It's all pretty warm beer given the pace of business change every company faces.
This book shows how to do it right. The editors have shaped the contributions of 24 experts iinto a thorough, rigorous book covering all the vital aspects of scenarios. The reader will find clear discussions of what scenarios should be and how organizations can use them to "learn from the future." There are chapters on tools and techniques (like simulation models), advice on implementation, and case studies from both the private and public sector. The last chapter, "Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning" is especially valuable.
Forewarned is forearmed. Any manager who does not want to go into the future blind and defenseless must read this book.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This impressive work shows how to harness imagination and strategic management techniques to create scenarios that simulate future opportunities and threats. Shows how to use scenario building, drawing on case studies and insights of 26 expert scenario developers. Presents a new system of scenario learning, bringing together strategic management, scenario technology, teamwork, creativity, and decision-making skills. This is a meaty and informative book.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
Learning from the Future has completely changed my approach to conducting strategy and planning in my company. It has opened up endless possibilities for improving the quality of our strategy and planning processes and has given us some very powerful methods (and thinking tools) to create effective strategies and strategy management methodologies. I highly recommend this work to anyone who really wants to strengthen their ability to develop robust, well thought-out strategies for growing their business. The integration of scenarios with strategy is an unbeatable combination. I know of no other technology like it. A must for consultants.
Mike Martinez; Strategy and Planning Mgr.; Hewlett Packard Co.
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