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A rattling good detective story and a detailed and brilliant piece of science writing. --Matt Ridley, The Spectator
....one of the best science books in years....deserves to win prizes --Prospect Magazine
In addition, we can now read in shocking detail the truth of the outrageous efforts made to ensure that the same 2007 report was able to keep on board IPCC's most shameless stunt of all - the notorious 'hockey stick' graph......For a full account see Andrew Montford's The Hockey Stick Illusion. --Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph
....one of the best science books in years....deserves to win prizes --Prospect Magazine
In addition, we can now read in shocking detail the truth of the outrageous efforts made to ensure that the same 2007 report was able to keep on board IPCC's most shameless stunt of all - the notorious 'hockey stick' graph......For a full account see Andrew Montford's The Hockey Stick Illusion. --Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph
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Part scientific history and part detective story, The Hockey Stick Illusion tells the extraordinary tale of the iconic global warming graph (created by the US climatologist Michael Mann), the global panic about climate change that it has helped to feed, and the tireless efforts of a lone amateur researcher, Steve McIntyre, that have comprehensively discredited it. From the earliest attempts to reproduce the Hockey Stick graph, to the explosive publication of McIntyre's work and the launch of a congressional inquiry, The Hockey Stick Illusion is a remarkable tale of scientific misconduct and amateur sleuthing. It explains the complex science of this most controversial of scientific findings in layperson's language and lays bare the remarkable extent to which climatologists have been willing to break their own rules in order to defend climate science's most famous finding. Already acclaimed by experts in the field, The Hockey Stick Illusion is an indispensable guide for anyone wanting to assess the credibility of global warming science.
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
109 of 128 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
This is a superb review of the story of the hockeystick, the temperature reconstruction which was supposed to show that late 20th century temperatures were unprecedented for at least 1,000 years and which was highlighted in the third IPCC report in 2001. What Montford does in this book is take us through Steven McIntyre's attempt to reproduce the original result of Michael Mann and the controversy that followed. His account is very well written and it reads like a detective story. The technical details of the debate are clearly explained even though there is no heavy mathematics or statistics. He tells the story chronologically and gives a good feel of what people on both sides of the debate actually said at the time (and there are plenty of references as well as judicious quotes form all sides. I have been following this debate for the past five years or so. To my mind this gives as clear an account of the debate as we are likely to see. What is now clear is that the Mann conclusions, far from being based on coherent evidence across a geographical widespread range of proxies all showing similar patterns across the Northern hemisphere, were based on a tiny subset of proxies, bristlecone and foxtail pines, from California whose anomalous 20th century growth was almost certainly not caused by high temperature. The apparently broad evidence was an illusion created by an eccentric implementation of a standard statistical technique called principal components analysis. Mann's version of this (which appears to be his own creation) effectively mined his hundred plus proxies for any which had hockeystick shapes and then gave them huge weight in the analysis. What is worrying about all this is not so much the fact that a paper is wrong. It is the failure to admit this when it is perfectly clear that it is wrong. Montford documents the evasions of debate and the consistent misrepresentation of what McIntyre and McKitrick actually said, as well as multiple refusals of access to data and clear descriptions of what had actually been done. By the time of the 2006 Wegman report it was clear that the hockeystick was broken, but it seems too much had been invested in it for people in paleoclimate to admit outright that it was just wrong. Montford tells this story too and documents the shenanigans surrounding the fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. But rather than me attempting to condense the book into a paragraph I urge people to buy and read this excellent account. Note that it was largely written before the emails from CRU became public, though there is a final chapter dealing quickly with them. What is remarkable is how much of the story was already known to people who had been following the debate, but also the lengths people were prepared to go to try and stifle proper debate. For me the cover-up of the story has been a bigger influence in turning me sceptical than the mere fact of the hockey stick being wrong.
30 of 35 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
I will start this review by saying what this book is *not*. It is *not* primarily about "Climategate" ie the e-mails published last November. Despite the book's subtitle, only towards the last 10% or so of the book does it even get into the issue of Climategate's e-mails - apparently an update to a book that was essentially ready by the time the e-mails became public.
What this book is: a prime example of journalism, and historical narrative, when applied to a very specific scientific issue. I firmly believe this book will be studied by historians for generations to come when they try to understand the bizarre episode of the hockey stick graph. I think the book works at three levels: (1) it is a highly technical, and fully referenced - yet still easily accessible - explanation of the scientific (or would-be scientific) background of the hockey stick and its successors, and of why it was ultimately an illusion (not to say: outright fraud); (2) it is a historical narrative very clearly explaining the sequence of events and their connections; and (3) at another level, it is the history of how one retired mining consultant, Steve McIntyre, with few resources apart from his brain, his free time, and his computer managed to take on an entire "scientific" establishment (more accurately, scientific-political) and emerge vindicated despite all attempts to ignore or even ridicule or villify him.
The only criticism I will make of this book (not enough to make me give it less than 5 stars) is that it could have been edited better. For instance, US Representative Joe Barton is referred to as "Senator" at least once, and references to "see page xy" are occasionally incorrect. Such errors are, however, very rare and in no way prevent the reader from following the book's arguments.
What this book is: a prime example of journalism, and historical narrative, when applied to a very specific scientific issue. I firmly believe this book will be studied by historians for generations to come when they try to understand the bizarre episode of the hockey stick graph. I think the book works at three levels: (1) it is a highly technical, and fully referenced - yet still easily accessible - explanation of the scientific (or would-be scientific) background of the hockey stick and its successors, and of why it was ultimately an illusion (not to say: outright fraud); (2) it is a historical narrative very clearly explaining the sequence of events and their connections; and (3) at another level, it is the history of how one retired mining consultant, Steve McIntyre, with few resources apart from his brain, his free time, and his computer managed to take on an entire "scientific" establishment (more accurately, scientific-political) and emerge vindicated despite all attempts to ignore or even ridicule or villify him.
The only criticism I will make of this book (not enough to make me give it less than 5 stars) is that it could have been edited better. For instance, US Representative Joe Barton is referred to as "Senator" at least once, and references to "see page xy" are occasionally incorrect. Such errors are, however, very rare and in no way prevent the reader from following the book's arguments.
56 of 66 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
You may have seen a few articles about Mr Mann's 'Hockey Stick' graph and the way it underpinned IPCC Reports
and Al Gore's climate propaganda and David Attenborough's climate documentary, Dr Iain Stewarts climate
documentary, our MET office and wonder how this brilliant man became so famous just a year after getting his PhD.
This book tells you how he did it. Considering the amount of worldwide panic he has created and the money
that has been wasted on him and his friend Mr Jones at CRU this book should be treated as EVIDENCE.
This is a dissection of Mann's working methods and the way he has manipulated previously highly
thought of journals and ruined the careers of excellent diligent scientists around the world.
His refusal to be open and honest in his dealings with the scientific community will make your blood boil.
The planet may well be warming.. a bit. It would be surprising if we did not have something to do with it
but hardly enough to cause panic and Carbon Taxation worldwide.
You will have to decide if he did it for money, fame or for deeper reasons associated with UN/IMF/World Bank
ambitions to create a World Government based on Carbon Trading.
It is technical in places, it has to be, but it's worth lighting up a few braincells to get the full picture.
My only disappointment is that the story, as yet, is not over.
and Al Gore's climate propaganda and David Attenborough's climate documentary, Dr Iain Stewarts climate
documentary, our MET office and wonder how this brilliant man became so famous just a year after getting his PhD.
This book tells you how he did it. Considering the amount of worldwide panic he has created and the money
that has been wasted on him and his friend Mr Jones at CRU this book should be treated as EVIDENCE.
This is a dissection of Mann's working methods and the way he has manipulated previously highly
thought of journals and ruined the careers of excellent diligent scientists around the world.
His refusal to be open and honest in his dealings with the scientific community will make your blood boil.
The planet may well be warming.. a bit. It would be surprising if we did not have something to do with it
but hardly enough to cause panic and Carbon Taxation worldwide.
You will have to decide if he did it for money, fame or for deeper reasons associated with UN/IMF/World Bank
ambitions to create a World Government based on Carbon Trading.
It is technical in places, it has to be, but it's worth lighting up a few braincells to get the full picture.
My only disappointment is that the story, as yet, is not over.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
Quite shocking expose on the CAGW scam.
For a period of time I have been somewhat sceptical of all the predictions about the "catastrophe" about to befall the planet, particularly when they fail spectacularly to come to... Read more
Published 1 month ago by J. Billot
Sophistry takes on science
This book has become something of a cult classic amongst those seeking to deny anthropogenic global warming. Read more
Published 1 month ago by Hengist McStone
Compelling analysis of crucial events.
Montford writes lucidly and rationally about how a group of influential climatologists manipulated data to create the illusion of rapid global warming. Read more
Published 2 months ago by Terence
frolly
At almost 500 pages, this book is tediously long for the subject covered, which is a expose on Michael Mann's infamous hockey stick. Read more
Published 4 months ago by frolly
Who would have thought?
This book is a page-turner. Who would have thought a book about the statistics of tree ring time series would be so enthralling. Mr. Read more
Published 10 months ago by R. Schneider
Simply the Truth is Astounding
I have only read the fist 2 Chapters and it is just astounding how they corrupted the data and gave the wrong answer! Read more
Published 13 months ago by Mr. Stephen A. Eades
....thank you it all makes sense now
A really well explained chronology of the undoing of 'The Hockey Stick' - an incredible story of a small band of people who were not will to be bullied into accepting that the... Read more
Published 13 months ago by Mollymawk
Essential reading for the Enquiring Mind
I bought this book fearing I would not be able to understand the science. However, this is easier than one might think and in any event plays second fiddle to the extraordinary... Read more
Published 13 months ago by Jack Savage
Lies,damn lies and statistics!
This book provides ample evidence of the fact that Global Warming is nothing but an enormous con trick. Read more
Published 15 months ago by Gary Aronsson
A Devastating Expose of Scientific Incompetence - a "must read"
Montford's book is that nowadays rare beast: a book about science for the layman that is neither patronising nor assumes the readership is composed of drooling morons terrified of... Read more
Published 16 months ago by fracture
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