There can be few everyday financial issues more important than the price of houses. Whether we own one and worry about its value or aspire to own one and are frustrated by their high prices, nobody can avoid the issue. In the UK, while prices have fluctuated during our lifetimes, overall they have risen steadily and sometimes spectacularly. The accepted wisdom is that houses are a safe and excellent investment for the long term. But are they really as good an investment as we believe? Might the future be different from the past? Are houses really so safe? This book looks at house prices over the long term in several countries -- including the UK, the US, France, Holland, Norway, Germany and Australia -- to find out what has happened to house prices and why. The author illustrates his findings with authoritative data on trends and provides intriguing details including a century-long index of UK house prices, an analysis of the value of the White House and a fascinating four-hundred-year story of houses in Amsterdam. - To what extent are we right to view our houses as an investment as well as a home? - If prices can rise for decades and then fall for more than a whole generation, then what does the future hold? - If prices rise further, will houses become unaffordable for many young people? How will that affect our society? - If they crash, will that endanger our banks once more? - Are politicians, policymakers and regulators prepared for the true range of possibilities? Anybody who owns a house, wants to own a house or follows the prices and economics of housing will find this book an accessible, fascinating and door-opening read. Neil Monnery studied at Oxford and Harvard Business School. He worked for many years at The Boston Consulting Group as a Director and Senior Vice President and is now active in business, investing and research.
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Anybody interested in the housing market and in trying to preserve their wealth in these uncertain times should take a look at a fascinating new book: Safe as Houses: A Historical Analysis of Property Prices is full of useful facts. --Allister Heath, Editor, City A.M.
This easy-to-read book shows that in the long run house price indices grow just slightly faster than consumer prices. The very high house price growth rates many countries have been experiencing for the last decade or so are not at all representative of longer trends. This provides food for thought for anybody anywhere in the world, who is interested in trying to foresee house prices and to devise investment strategies. --Jacques Friggit, French Ministry of Housing
A must read if you are remotely interested in the history of house prices. -- Merryn Somerset Webb, Money Week
This is a fascinating and and accessibly written book with many surprising facts and an underlying wit. --John Pitt, New Classics
Many people think that owning a house is a certain moneymaker, but this is not the historical experience. In his recent book Safe as Houses? A Historical Analysis of Property Prices, Neil Monnery presents data from an array of nations going back (in some cases) several centuries. What he discovers is that real house prices have generally been flat over time, or have increased by at most 1% a year. Rather like gold, then, house prices have been a good store of value rather than an automatic route to riches. --The Economist
For a while, I thought [property] was a cracking investment. Now I'm not sure. What has changed my mind is Safe as Houses?, by Neil Monnery. Mr Monnery is no explicit housing bear and offers no outlandishly bearish forecasts. But for those of us who find history the most powerful guide to the present, he provides a wealth of data that show, in impressive detail, how unusual the past 50 years - and particularly the past 15 - have been. ----Stephen Wilmot, Investors Chronicle
Many people think that owning a house is a certain moneymaker, but this is not the historical experience. In his recent book Safe as Houses? A Historical Analysis of Property Prices, Neil Monnery presents data from an array of nations going back (in some cases) several centuries. What he discovers is that real house prices have generally been flat over time, or have increased by at most 1% a year. Rather like gold, then, house prices have been a good store of value rather than an automatic route to riches. --The Economist
For a while, I thought [property] was a cracking investment. Now I'm not sure. What has changed my mind is Safe as Houses?, by Neil Monnery. Mr Monnery is no explicit housing bear and offers no outlandishly bearish forecasts. But for those of us who find history the most powerful guide to the present, he provides a wealth of data that show, in impressive detail, how unusual the past 50 years - and particularly the past 15 - have been. --Stephen Wilmot, Investors Chronicle
This easy-to-read book shows that in the long run house price indices grow just slightly faster than consumer prices. The very high house price growth rates many countries have been experiencing for the last decade or so are not at all representative of longer trends. This provides food for thought for anybody anywhere in the world, who is interested in trying to foresee house prices and to devise investment strategies. --Jacques Friggit, French Ministry of Housing
A must read if you are remotely interested in the history of house prices. -- Merryn Somerset Webb, Money Week
This is a fascinating and and accessibly written book with many surprising facts and an underlying wit. --John Pitt, New Classics
Many people think that owning a house is a certain moneymaker, but this is not the historical experience. In his recent book Safe as Houses? A Historical Analysis of Property Prices, Neil Monnery presents data from an array of nations going back (in some cases) several centuries. What he discovers is that real house prices have generally been flat over time, or have increased by at most 1% a year. Rather like gold, then, house prices have been a good store of value rather than an automatic route to riches. --The Economist
For a while, I thought [property] was a cracking investment. Now I'm not sure. What has changed my mind is Safe as Houses?, by Neil Monnery. Mr Monnery is no explicit housing bear and offers no outlandishly bearish forecasts. But for those of us who find history the most powerful guide to the present, he provides a wealth of data that show, in impressive detail, how unusual the past 50 years - and particularly the past 15 - have been. ----Stephen Wilmot, Investors Chronicle
Many people think that owning a house is a certain moneymaker, but this is not the historical experience. In his recent book Safe as Houses? A Historical Analysis of Property Prices, Neil Monnery presents data from an array of nations going back (in some cases) several centuries. What he discovers is that real house prices have generally been flat over time, or have increased by at most 1% a year. Rather like gold, then, house prices have been a good store of value rather than an automatic route to riches. --The Economist
For a while, I thought [property] was a cracking investment. Now I'm not sure. What has changed my mind is Safe as Houses?, by Neil Monnery. Mr Monnery is no explicit housing bear and offers no outlandishly bearish forecasts. But for those of us who find history the most powerful guide to the present, he provides a wealth of data that show, in impressive detail, how unusual the past 50 years - and particularly the past 15 - have been. --Stephen Wilmot, Investors Chronicle
About the Author
Neil Monnery studied at Oxford and Harvard Business School. He worked for many years at The Boston Consulting Group as a Director and Senior Vice President and is now active in business, investing and research.
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Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful
By Rob
Format:Paperback
This is the book we all should read. As Mr Monnery points out early on, most of us have most of our personal wealth built up in the home we live in. But, reading between the lines of the author's cautions about the difficulties of making accurate projections on house price movements, it is clear from his deep, broad and careful analysis of house prices through the ages, that we are on the cusp of something unpleasant for our generation of home owners.
Despite the feeling that bad news is coming for home owners in the UK, the book is, however, a surprisingly pleasant read with each page offering up another insight, some additional data, a sharp and often novel interpretation of facts, and a ready supply of 'dinner party factoids' for when, or if, the topic of house prices ever becomes the central theme of conversations around meals shared with friends and strangers alike over a glass of Malbec. I don't miss those conversations but having had to sit through many, this book would have been a gold mine to help sort out the speculative from the substantive and the real facts.
The style is taken from the Economist Style Guide; short punchy sentences, avoidance of three and four syllable words when one or two syllables will do the job, and a nice balance between being didactic but not condescending. For those like me, who believe that "numbers are our friends" and cut through hype, this book is packed full of both raw data and analysis, leading to a number of moments when you draw in your breath and go "eeeeek".
From a personal point of view, I would implore Mr Monnery to add in his second edition a chapter on London. It has to be different here. Doesn't it?
Despite the feeling that bad news is coming for home owners in the UK, the book is, however, a surprisingly pleasant read with each page offering up another insight, some additional data, a sharp and often novel interpretation of facts, and a ready supply of 'dinner party factoids' for when, or if, the topic of house prices ever becomes the central theme of conversations around meals shared with friends and strangers alike over a glass of Malbec. I don't miss those conversations but having had to sit through many, this book would have been a gold mine to help sort out the speculative from the substantive and the real facts.
The style is taken from the Economist Style Guide; short punchy sentences, avoidance of three and four syllable words when one or two syllables will do the job, and a nice balance between being didactic but not condescending. For those like me, who believe that "numbers are our friends" and cut through hype, this book is packed full of both raw data and analysis, leading to a number of moments when you draw in your breath and go "eeeeek".
From a personal point of view, I would implore Mr Monnery to add in his second edition a chapter on London. It has to be different here. Doesn't it?
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
It is unusual for someone who has obviously spent a long time carefully researching his subject and collecting masses of data to be able to spin an interesting narrative. But Neil Monnery does just that in this book. His Chapter 2 on American Dreams and nightmares is particularly good, weaving together interesting data, economics, economic history and politics.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase
This book is a very interesting and fairly comprehensive study of real house price trends across time in a number of markets across the world. It's fascinating looking at how prices have trended in parts of Amsterdam since 1690, compared with the normal housing data you see that rarely extends back more than 20 years, a relatively short sample period for a market like property.
The book is good as it doesn't seek to push a particular view, or try and make any hero call on the market, it simply presents the data in an interesting way. Recommended reading for anyone looking to buy or already in the market.
The book is good as it doesn't seek to push a particular view, or try and make any hero call on the market, it simply presents the data in an interesting way. Recommended reading for anyone looking to buy or already in the market.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars
Fasten your seat belt!
If you think it is going to be safe to get back into the property waters any time soon fifty pages into this book and you will change your mind. Read more
Published 10 months ago by Guy Cornwall
5.0 out of 5 stars
Excellent analysis
A great analysis of the fundentals of property prices, hundreds of years of history across a dozen countries. Read more
Published 12 months ago by Gary Frost
3.0 out of 5 stars
More to add
Neil Monnery has tried, and I believe successfully, to write a readable and relatively informative book on a highly complex subject. Read more
Published 12 months ago by Nrhlangman
3.0 out of 5 stars
Amazing history lesson and good data but analysis is lacking depth
Firstly this book fulfils the brief in the title; the author has managed to compile some amazing long term data sets and gives a robust historical account of each. Read more
Published 16 months ago by Rob
5.0 out of 5 stars
Fascinating
An extremely interesting read that presents the hard facts on house prices whilst simultaneously being written in an engaging and entertaining fashion. Read more
Published 19 months ago by bennosmith
2.0 out of 5 stars
Havent got far
Book is not captivating enough. Basically discusses history and I have not picked it up after the 2nd chapter. Read more
Published 19 months ago by Mohammed
5.0 out of 5 stars
An excellent book which uses the facts as analysis rather than...
Having baby boomer parents, a brother with a buy to let property and myself having had to move back in with my parents at 29 years of age to enable me to save more, the subject of... Read more
Published 19 months ago by Coley
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