The Very Short Introduction series by Oxford University Press has a good reputation for presenting challenging subjects in an easily accessible manner. "Global Catastrophes" by Bill McGuire is one of its very best examples. Originally published in 2002 as "A Guide to the End of the World", it has since been updated to include events as recent as 2005, with a new preface as well as a fully revised text and bibliography.
The book deals exclusively with environmental phenomena rather than man-made, technological disasters. In each chapter McGuire explores the evidence for - as well as the likely effects of - different catastrophes that could, in the near future, put an end to human civilisation, namely global warming, a new ice age, supervolanoes and other tectonic hazards, and lastly asteroidal impact. His mastery of the material is clear, and at every stage he is careful to back up his arguments with facts and figures drawn from scientific studies and computer models. At the same time his style is conversational and makes on the whole for easy reading, although occasionally the analogies he chooses tend to confuse rather than illuminate.
The opening chapter on global warming is the book's tour de force - as well as probably the most relevant for the reader today - providing a succinct summary of the main issues and sources of contention. McGuire pulls no punches, making it clear just how unprecedented is the effect that human industrial activity is having on the global climate, and how our planet is hotter now than it has been for 90% of its history. For any sceptics of climate change, or of its future implications for our civilisation, this will be a potent wake-up call. In complete contrast, the next chapter explores the counter-intuitive (yet nevertheless scientifically plausible) theory that rising global temperatures could in fact trigger a rapid freeze and a return to Ice Age conditions. But regardless of whether we are set for global warming or global cooling, McGuire demonstrates why this is an especially bad period in geological time for us to be experimenting with our atmosphere and climate.
The third chapter - on supervolcanoes and other tectonic events - is similarly well-argued, as one might expect from a Professor of Vulcanology at University College London. One disappointment, however, is the short treatment afforded to the topic of flood basalt eruptions, in particular the Deccan Trap event, which is now thought to have been a contributing factor in the decline and extinction of the dinosaurs. A significant amount of research is now being conducted into these events, which could have been explored further. Finally, McGuire's discussion of potential extinction-level asteroidal impact is both balanced and considered, stressing the catastrophic effect this would have while also underlining the unlikelihood of such an event occurring in the near future.
The book includes 20 images and diagrams, serving to illustrate and reinforce McGuire's points, as well as 2 appendices, summarising the relative frequency of the various threats and plotting the most significant on a geological timescale. The bibliography is thorough, divided according to the relevant chapters, and runs to no less than 65 titles, making this book an excellent platform for exploring the subject further.
All in all, "Global Catastrophes: A Very Short Introduction" is an excellent overview of what is a difficult, unsettling and sometimes contentious subject, and a book that I can highly recommend.