The Future Is Wild [Hardcover]

The 5 million years into the future fauna is believable. It is concievable that caviomorph rodents will evolve into armoured rattlebacks, that New World primates will come down to the grassland and that caracaras will become neo-phosrhacoids; that pigs will be able to survive an ice age, and that marmots and mustelids could grow larger after a mass extinction.

But I have some problems - the cryptile's means of finding food seems silly in particular. The gannetwhales, although likely to evolve in that they are huge seabirds (there were once giant penguins), appear to have two connected flippers instead of feet. Birds are remarkably conservative in most respects and no other flightless bird has done this. Also I dont know how the animals are supposed to move on land - birds have stiff backbones and their wrist movements prevent them from becoming quadropedal. That leaves only the feet for pushing the body as in divers etc and so a seabird needs to be able to push with the feet. The same problems apply to the squinks - pretty implausible especially if mammals are there to fill the role. I have less problems with the deathgleaners, but is a microbat really likely to switch from echolocation to sight, and compete with diurnal birds of prey if it did?

At 100 million years into the future it gets a little worse. The red algal reef habitat is very plausible and so are the diversified petrels of Antarctica. But while the warm climate may be suited to large arthropods, I doubt that they would eclipse the birds any more than birds are eclipsed today in tropical forests by goliath beetles. It is very, very unlikely that the mammals will be going extinct in 100 milion years time too. There is a four winged crane, which I doubt because having four wings requires musculature on the hind legs (for the feathers) which birds are unlikely to evolve.

Regarding the toraton, a giant tortoise, it mignt or mignt not be plausible. My first thoughts that it was impossible were based upon the absence of unequivocally ectothermic large land animals bigger than giant tortoises or komodo dragons, neither being very big or competitive against land mammals, despite large areas of tropical to subtropical swamp, forest and grasslands. But the toraton lives in a swamp, where the cooling water could help the evolution of giant ectotherms (like crocodiles). What I doubt is parental care in the tortoises. As for the brackish swamp octopuses - are there such things as brackish octopuses? They seem stenohaline (ie restricted to sea water). I dont know why, but they have not adapted to less salty habitats before.

By 200 million years into the future the squid and bony fish appear to pose problems. The squids in that they live on land! Some octopi forage briefly on land but it is surely improbable (not impossible) that squid would. Which is a shame because the terasquid are interesting animals. In any case, I think it improbable, to say the least, that squid could reach 8 tons on land without evolving a skeleton!

The fish have become fliers. This is probably based on a model for the evolution of insect flight from mayflies skimming the surface of the water. Actually hatchetfish (characins from south america) have reached this stage, and skim the surface by flapping their fins. But, did insect flight evolve this way - its unsure, and if not, then it would be unprecedented for flish to evolve. One matter that seemed silly is the contortion of the tail by 90 degrees, creating an aerodynamic structure like a bird's tail fan. But it is no stranger than the eyes of flatfish. On the other hand, I doubt that they would evolve to breathe air through a teleost's swim bladder or that they would roost and nest out of water (how would they nest?).

So its great, very thought provoking. It was very fun to read, but not all the things are easy to agree with, and it seems incmplete ie what is the large megafauna 100 million years into the future if mammals are nearly extinct? It is as though the authors have just thought of fantasy animals that are plausible (wether they actually are or not is not relevant) but not tried to fit them properly into a global view, except for 5 million years into the future. It tantalises but doesnt really deliver.

The future animals of millions of years seem convincing although I'm no expert biologist or zoologist. I can't see the total disappearance of mammals and reptiles, but then, I may be wrong. Even if they did become extinct, I imagine that mammals, reptiles, fish and birds could make a comeback. If individual species are always random, I feel that types are not. Mammals, reptiles, birds are too successful so there is no reason why they couldn't and would not evolve again.

What would be interesting is another book to complement this one - thousands of years into the future - what might happen to the human race? I doubt very much they all would evacuate this planet even if technology were available to travel in space and already colonised a few planets.

Also what might happen to descendents of domesticated animals - both pets and livestock? How would they evolve and then become extinct? The current wild dogs - wolves, dingoes and jackals - are on the verge of extinction, so perhaps descendants of domestic dogs will fill that void?

And then there are the animals which are, at present, held in captivity in European and North American zoos and wild life parks: rhino - woolly rhino; elephants - woolly mammoths; lions adapted for the ice age climate like the previous cave lions and will be larger than their African ancestors? I would have thought these would be a few possibilities and why not. Sabre tooth cats evolved again and again, why not elephants into mammoths?

This book is interesting but the story of the future is left unfinished unless we know what might happen to humans and the animals, we are familiar with today, in the more immediate future in tens of thousands of years or a few millennia. Maybe the scientists who produced The Future is Wild are working on it?