The simultaneous onset of climate change and the peaking of global oil supply represent unprecedented challenges for human civilisation. Global oil peak has the potential to shake if not destroy the foundations of the global industrial economy and culture. Climate change has the potential to rearrange the biosphere more radically than the last ice age. Each limits the effective options for responses to the other. The strategies for mitigating the adverse effects and/or adapting to the consequences of climate change have mostly been considered and discussed in isolation from those relevant to peak oil.While awareness of peak oil, or at least the energy crisis, is increasing, understanding of how these two problems might interact to generate quite different futures is still at an early state. Future Scenarios presents an integrated approach to understanding the potential interaction between climate change and peak oil using a scenario planning model. In the process it introduces permaculture as a design system specifically evolved over the last 30 years to creatively respond to futures that involve progressively less and less available energy.
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David Holmgren is the most important futurist in the world right now. --Adam Grubb, Energy Bulletin
From the Back Cover
Human civilisation today faces two unprecedented challenges: the threat of climate change and the peaking of global oil supply. Energy supply has been one of the strongest factors in determining human history, and there are strong signs that we are now in the early stages of an energy transition that will shake our economy to its core. At the same time, the accelerating evidence of climate change ahs made this environmental crisis a top international priority.
Rarely are these two issues considered in combination, but each affects the way we can respond to the other. The possibilities for our future range from `techno-explosion' to civilisation collapse - but another possibility is energy descent, where available energy and organisational complexity progressively decline. Many sustainability strategists believe that energy descent may be inevitable.
There is a desperate need to recast energy descent as a positive process that can free people from the dysfunctions of growth economics. Future Scenarios uses a planning model incorporating the spectrums of climate change and peak oil to generate four `energy descent' scenarios - `brown tech', `green tech', `lifeboats' and `Earth steward' - representing various pathways. It uses the principles of permaculture - a design system founded on reduced resource availability - to show how we can deal with energy descent in the most graceful way possible.
Rarely are these two issues considered in combination, but each affects the way we can respond to the other. The possibilities for our future range from `techno-explosion' to civilisation collapse - but another possibility is energy descent, where available energy and organisational complexity progressively decline. Many sustainability strategists believe that energy descent may be inevitable.
There is a desperate need to recast energy descent as a positive process that can free people from the dysfunctions of growth economics. Future Scenarios uses a planning model incorporating the spectrums of climate change and peak oil to generate four `energy descent' scenarios - `brown tech', `green tech', `lifeboats' and `Earth steward' - representing various pathways. It uses the principles of permaculture - a design system founded on reduced resource availability - to show how we can deal with energy descent in the most graceful way possible.
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