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Future Savvy...will help you become a better consumer of forecasts, from economists, governments, think tanks and, yes, even journalists. --The Globe & Mail (Toronto)
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A book that will make fascinating reading for anyone involved in forecasting.
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
There is very little I can add to what the other reviewer had written about this very intriguing book by Adam Gordon on Future-Thinking. When I read it, I found that Adam Gordon's book has kept a remarkable balance between being a guide through a very complex matter and a pot of insights about unconventional views of the world.
For example: what we think about the future tells a lot about what we are in the present.
This principle can be extremely valuable when it comes to corporate strategy and board discussions about key investment decisions. By exploring decision bias, paradigm blindness (things we do not see because we do not want to see them) and the alike (well described in Adam's book) an organization can increase the quality of its decision making process by having people aware of the portion of the future they are equipped to see and therefore making them more open to different opinions and "bias systems".
That is probably why in the past the human race asked the fortune-tellers to be talked through its own future thinking, as a way to stay honest about expectations from the Future.
And certainly that is why we keep doing it.
For example: what we think about the future tells a lot about what we are in the present.
This principle can be extremely valuable when it comes to corporate strategy and board discussions about key investment decisions. By exploring decision bias, paradigm blindness (things we do not see because we do not want to see them) and the alike (well described in Adam's book) an organization can increase the quality of its decision making process by having people aware of the portion of the future they are equipped to see and therefore making them more open to different opinions and "bias systems".
That is probably why in the past the human race asked the fortune-tellers to be talked through its own future thinking, as a way to stay honest about expectations from the Future.
And certainly that is why we keep doing it.
2 of 3 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
Nowadays most large companies have a future department or a forecasting method that they use or buy in to give them guidance for future strategy and planning. The question is however which kind of forecasting suits which company, which method is the right one and what can it do for you. If you want to find out about the different types of forecasting Future Savvy by Adam Gordon is a good place to start.
Whether you work in forecasting, are studying it, or want to help understand the limitations of an outsourced forecast, this is a book to help you through a tricky subject. Gordon takes a no nonsense, systematic approach to explaining forecasting - first of all clearly defining the different approaches from so-called future-aligning to future-influencing methods, to that age-old battle of the pessimists vs the optimists.
Having cleared the key basics, he moves on to one of the eternal challenges and stumbling blocks in forecasting - that your forecast is only as good as your data (working with statistics at university our motto was "lies, damn lies and statistics" ). Gordon also tackles the tricky question of quality of data, how good is your data and what are the typical traps to be avoided. From improper use of data to out-of-date data, there are many ways to make mistakes and perpetuate misunderstandings. It makes however for somewhat depressing conclusions - as you begin to wonder if there are any statistics or data sources that can really ever be trusted. As Gordon points out, "all numbers lie a bit, and some lie a lot".
But data itself is not the only problem to be addressed. He warns, with ample examples, about the many bias traps that also play a role in forecasting - such as sponsored forecasts, insider forecasts and technophile bias. But as if that isn't enough to worry about, Gordon moves onto " Zeitgeist and Perception: How we can't escape our own mind". This addresses the powerful (often problematic) influence of the Zeitgeist on forecasting as well as partly what Bruce Sterling calls the Futurists Monkey Trap - the parts of prediction that are down to the forecasters own mindset, peccadillos and little personal hang-ups.
But there is hope for the future of forecasting - if you can't entirely fight against bias or bad data, better to understand it, identify the problem and then learn to work with it. And so the book takes us on to more optimistic proposals for forecasting with a chapter cheekily entitled, "How it's better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong." If you have limited time, then Chapter 11, entitled "questions to ask of any forecast" is a good summary of the issues and leaves us with the reminder that "good forecasting is as much about seeing what won't change in the future."
Whether you work in forecasting, are studying it, or want to help understand the limitations of an outsourced forecast, this is a book to help you through a tricky subject. Gordon takes a no nonsense, systematic approach to explaining forecasting - first of all clearly defining the different approaches from so-called future-aligning to future-influencing methods, to that age-old battle of the pessimists vs the optimists.
Having cleared the key basics, he moves on to one of the eternal challenges and stumbling blocks in forecasting - that your forecast is only as good as your data (working with statistics at university our motto was "lies, damn lies and statistics" ). Gordon also tackles the tricky question of quality of data, how good is your data and what are the typical traps to be avoided. From improper use of data to out-of-date data, there are many ways to make mistakes and perpetuate misunderstandings. It makes however for somewhat depressing conclusions - as you begin to wonder if there are any statistics or data sources that can really ever be trusted. As Gordon points out, "all numbers lie a bit, and some lie a lot".
But data itself is not the only problem to be addressed. He warns, with ample examples, about the many bias traps that also play a role in forecasting - such as sponsored forecasts, insider forecasts and technophile bias. But as if that isn't enough to worry about, Gordon moves onto " Zeitgeist and Perception: How we can't escape our own mind". This addresses the powerful (often problematic) influence of the Zeitgeist on forecasting as well as partly what Bruce Sterling calls the Futurists Monkey Trap - the parts of prediction that are down to the forecasters own mindset, peccadillos and little personal hang-ups.
But there is hope for the future of forecasting - if you can't entirely fight against bias or bad data, better to understand it, identify the problem and then learn to work with it. And so the book takes us on to more optimistic proposals for forecasting with a chapter cheekily entitled, "How it's better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong." If you have limited time, then Chapter 11, entitled "questions to ask of any forecast" is a good summary of the issues and leaves us with the reminder that "good forecasting is as much about seeing what won't change in the future."
2 of 3 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
I can thoroughly recommend this book to anyone involved in forecasting. It has much useful insight as well as explaining different types of forecast and the ways to use them. It offers pragmatic advice and appropriately cautions against excessively optimistic predictions. If all those compiling forecasts in the technology related industries read it we would have a much better set of material to make realistic assessments of what might happen.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
Dariusz Lis
Very good book. I really enjoyed reading it - sections on 'dentify Trends', `Make Better Decisions', `Manage Uncertainty' and `Profit from Change' are very helpful in understanding... Read more
Published on 1 Mar 2009 by Dariusz Lis
Future Savvy is savvy
Adam Gordon's new book, Future Savvy, expertly describes forecasting principles, pitfalls and practical applications in futures studies. Read more
Published on 27 Nov 2008 by Michael Jackson
Optical Quality of the Crystal Ball
I was surprised by FUTURE SAVVY. It had been sent to me as a non-expert for comment and I intended to browse through it only as a duty and a courtesy. Read more
Published on 21 Nov 2008 by J. A. Caine
A very useful and user-friendly book
Future Savvy is a VERY useful book; not only for the user / recipient of forecasts, but also for the forecasting practitioner (make better forecasts! Read more
Published on 18 Nov 2008 by Tanja Hichert
A Guide To Understanding The Future
We live in an age of numbers. It is often heard of management that `if we can't measure it, we can't control it', and so we attempt to measure everything. Read more
Published on 3 Nov 2008 by S. Aguilar-Millan
How to gain benefits and avoid losses with successful foresight
Adam Gordon explains how to "identify trends to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and profit from change. Read more
Published on 14 Oct 2008 by Robert Morris
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