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Product Description
Product Description
It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.
Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:
- What makes a good forecast?
- What period should a forecast cover?
- How frequently should it be updated?
- What information should it contain?
- What is the best way to produce a forecast?
- How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?
- How should a forecast be used?
- How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?
- How accurate does it need to be?
- How should you deal with risk and uncertainty
- What is the best way to organize a forecast process?
- Do you need multiple forecasts?
- What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?
Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.
Praise for Future Ready
"Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward"
—Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC
"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading–averse manager will love from page one"
—Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro
"A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement."
—Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting
"In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market."
—Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group
From the Author
The reason for this is that somewhat to my surprise, we find ourselves swimming with a strong tide of opinion within the academic forecasting community. For instance, the International Journal of Forecasting devoted half of their December 2009 issue to the topic of `decision making and planning under low levels of predictability' (it was edited by respected academic Spyros Makridakis and Nassim Taleb of `Black Swan' fame). Our analysis and prescriptions are very much in line with theirs, but with a stronger focus on practical application within organisations. Readers can therefore be confident that what we have to offer is new but also well grounded.
In summary, I am happy with what we have produced; I certainly would have welcomed this book when I was working in business. I am also absolutely confident that it can be improved on, and would welcome feedback from readers, either through the public forum of Amazon readers reviews or private correspondence.
- Steve Morlidge
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Customer Reviews
From a business point of view, there is something in this book for everyone - beginning with the visionary corporate "General" right down to the "Grunt" at the front line actually crunching the forecast numbers.
The logical structure of the chapters flows well from looking at `why' through important sections including purpose, time and risk, through to `how' and Morlidge and Player use helpful examples, tips and anecdotes which add to the clarity of his text. The sailing analogy, p.41, of adjusting course in response to the weather might be old (`borrowed' from Plato's The Republic) but it is still a great example!
The writing is objective throughout whilst retaining a style that is easy to follow. For me, the style, is similar Malcolm Gladwell in that he uses good, simple analogies to explain the major issues with forecasting. Those parts are great to read and easy to spot (you know this when you find yourself nodding in agreement) - particularly when dealing with the fear of habit over reason! Perhaps Gladwell's examples are more visual, and therefore easier to get across, but perhaps that is because the authors aim to help people improve rather than just tell a good story.
If there was ever a book to buy your boss in order to "re-educate" him/her with regard to forecasting techniques (particularly if they seem to suffer from "Shoot the Messenger Syndrome"), then this is for you.
Even better, if you just happen to be the boss, then you will get a lot more out of it than your number-crunching employees. Moreover, this work is a cheap education on a subject that is becoming increasingly critical to business survival and success in the 21st century. Reading it was one of the best investments I have made this year!
The authors cover with great clarity the rationale for forecasting, its challenges, definitions and offer useful advice in how to design the forecasting, target setting and budgeting processes of businesses and organisations in different sectors by providing actionable rules and tools.
Recommended for those looking to either re-design or improve their organisations' planning processes.
N.B. Some typos left unchecked but nothing major.
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