Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway [Paperback]

"We can only hope that this brilliant book will shock the human race, and particularly the chattering expert class, into a condition of humility" --John Mueller, author of Overblown and Political Scientist, Ohio State University

"Must reading for anyone who cares about the future." --Paul Slovic, Professor of Psychology, University of Oregon

"A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose"
-- Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgement and Mitchell Professor of Organizational Behavior, Hass School of Business, University of California

Future Babble is genuinely arresting...required reading for journalists, politicians, academics and anyone who listens to them. -- Steven Pinker

'It is a tour de force, absolutely outstanding'
--Matt Ridley

This book should be required reading for America's intelligence agencies
--Dylan Evans, The Guardian

Hugely enjoyable
--Financial Times

Bestselling author of Risk, Dan Gardner returns with a fascinating and accessible book that uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, exploring the psychology of our obsession with the future

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future-everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

'Gardner displays the best virtues of his profession: compelling storytelling backed up by hard facts gleaned from specialist research' Guardian

In 2007, experts said it would be smooth sailing in 2008; then came the global financial hurricane. In 2008, as oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later, it plunged to $30. This is how it always goes. In the 1960s, experts said the Soviet economy would be bigger than the American economy by 1997; in 1997, the Soviet Union did not exist. In 1911, experts declared there would be no more major wars; we all know how that turned out.

Let's face it: experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask

them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

Dan Gardner is the bestselling author of Risk as well as a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen. Trained in history and law, Gardner worked in politics as a senior policy adviser before turning to journalism. His writing has received numerous awards, including the National Newspaper Award and Amnesty International's Media Award. He lives in Ottawa with his wife and two children.