- Hardcover: 272 pages
- Publisher: Basic Books (21 April 2011)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 0465021026
- ISBN-13: 978-0465021024
- Product Dimensions: 20 x 20.1 x 2.4 cm
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 1,021,004 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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More About the Author
Product Description
Review
Scott M. Cooper, MIT Research Affiliate, co-author of "Coolhunting""
""With this third book in his trilogy of exploration into how to address some of society's most complex and vexing problems, Len Fisher challenges us to rethink how science and mathematics is used in what might be called 'crisis prediction and management.' This book is getting me to rethink some of my own work."
Simon A. Levin, Moffett Professor of Biology, Princeton University; author of"Fragile Dominion""
""Fisher is a master story-teller, making difficult scientific concepts seem simple through elegant exposition. "Crashes, Crises, and Calamities" addresses the challenge of disaster prediction in socio-economic, ecological, and physical systems by a brilliant and engaging integration of diverse scientific perspectives."
Ian Stewart, author of "Professor Stewart's Cabinet of Mathematical Curiosities""
""Len Fisher is a natural storyteller, and his tales about the mathematics of crashes, crises, and c
Product Description
Why do certain civilizations, societies, and ecosystems collapse? How does the domino effect relate to the credit crunch? When can mathematics help explain marriage? And how on earth do toads predict earthquakes? The future is uncertain. But science can help foretell what lies ahead. Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, Crashes, Crises, and Calamities offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories. In accessible prose, Len Fisher demonstrates how we can foresee and manage events that might otherwise catch us by surprise. At the cutting edge of science, Fisher helps us find ways to act before a full-fledged catastrophe is upon us. Crashes, Crises, and Calamities is a witty and informative exploration of the chaos, complexity, and patterns of our daily lives.
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4 reviews
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful
How math can help us avoid disasters
7 May 2011
Format:Kindle Edition
Crashes, Crises, and Calamities is a account for the general reader of how mathematics might be used to predict disasters both natural and societal. The presentation relies on words and graphs to make its point (I both listened to the audio edition and bought the Kindle edition)with only a few equations, none of which require more than algebra. Fisher's point is that the same techinques, such as catastrophy and chaos theory, are applicable to predicting a wide variety of disasters.
Fisher's presentation is well done, with entertaining diversions into other methods of prediction, such as consulting oracles. The book is not for those who want a rigorous introduction to the mathematics, but the extensive notes should be helpful for those interested in the details. My main criticism is that business forcast economists, who would seem (next to weather forcasters) our closest modern parallel to soothsayers, were oddly absent from the discussion. Are they so bad they have nothing to contribute ? Are their techniques that different? I also wondered about his discussion of how managers in large organizations should be sensitive to weak signals of impending disaster. As I work for a large bureaucracy myself, I find it highly unlikely that high-ranking managers will take the risk of advocating policies based upon ambiguous information.
Fisher's presentation is well done, with entertaining diversions into other methods of prediction, such as consulting oracles. The book is not for those who want a rigorous introduction to the mathematics, but the extensive notes should be helpful for those interested in the details. My main criticism is that business forcast economists, who would seem (next to weather forcasters) our closest modern parallel to soothsayers, were oddly absent from the discussion. Are they so bad they have nothing to contribute ? Are their techniques that different? I also wondered about his discussion of how managers in large organizations should be sensitive to weak signals of impending disaster. As I work for a large bureaucracy myself, I find it highly unlikely that high-ranking managers will take the risk of advocating policies based upon ambiguous information.
4 of 5 people found the following review helpful
Anticipating Disasters - A Sampling of Approaches
5 April 2011
Format:Hardcover
In this entertaining book, the author addresses the problem of using "early warning signs to anticipate personal and global disasters". The eleven chapters that it contains each address a particular issue. The author points out that understanding a given chapter does not depend on information from prior ones; consequently, they may be read in any order. In some cases, mathematical models are used to predict the behaviour of certain systems. These models are discussed and their strong points as well as their shortcomings are highlighted. I must admit that I was surprised at some of the modelling results and their implications, e.g., the onset of chaotic behaviour of a given system when a certain variable reaches some threshold value. In other cases, I found some of the discussions to be rather theoretical; however, the author usually follows those up with practical examples to illustrate his points.
Overall, the writing style is friendly, often light-hearted and generally clear (although I did have to re-read a few passages for them to sink in). Occasionally, unfamiliar jargon would creep and slow me down, but most of the time, the terms used are well defined. The book contains forty seven pages of endnotes. Most of these simply contain references. However, several also contain further information on a particular topic or some interesting side stories. So, in order not to miss anything, I found myself continuously flipping back and forth as I read through the main text. For me, this was a bit annoying.
This book, or at least parts of it, could be of benefit to anyone; but I suspect that those with a particular passion for the methodologies used in disaster prediction would likely enjoy the book the most.
Overall, the writing style is friendly, often light-hearted and generally clear (although I did have to re-read a few passages for them to sink in). Occasionally, unfamiliar jargon would creep and slow me down, but most of the time, the terms used are well defined. The book contains forty seven pages of endnotes. Most of these simply contain references. However, several also contain further information on a particular topic or some interesting side stories. So, in order not to miss anything, I found myself continuously flipping back and forth as I read through the main text. For me, this was a bit annoying.
This book, or at least parts of it, could be of benefit to anyone; but I suspect that those with a particular passion for the methodologies used in disaster prediction would likely enjoy the book the most.
A few interesting ideas
22 Mar 2012
While this book has a few intriguing ideas, it has several elements bordering on pseudoscience. The author's understanding of concepts such as nonlinear dynamics is superficial and contains significant misunderstandings. The book may be worth a read, but readers should be careful not to take the author at his word without independent verification. In short, if you are intrigued by something in the book, find out more about it elsewhere. As an aside, the author fails to deliver on the promise of the book's subtitle: to explain "How We Can Use Science to Read the Early-Warning Signs."
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