- Hardcover: 270 pages
- Publisher: Prometheus Books; illustrated edition edition (14 May 2008)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 159102613X
- ISBN-13: 978-1591026136
- Product Dimensions: 23.2 x 16.3 x 2.7 cm
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 1,545,210 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- See Complete Table of Contents
The Coming Convergence
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Product Description
Product Description
Imagine direct communication links between the human brain and machines, or tailored materials capable of adapting by themselves to changing environmental conditions, or computer chips and environmental sensors embedded into everyday clothing, or medical technologies that eliminate currently untreatable conditions such as blindness and paralysis. Now, imagine all of these developments occurring at the same time. The stuff of science fiction? Not So. These are actually the reasonable predictions of scientists attempting to forecast a few decades into the future based on the rapid pace of innovation.Author Stanley Schmidt-a physicist, a writer, and the editor of "Analog: Science Fiction and Fact" - explores these and many more amazing yet probable scenarios in this fascinating guide to the near future. He shows how past convergences have led to today's world, then considers tomorrow's main currents in biotechnology, cognitive science, information technology, and nanotechnology. Looking even further downstream he foresees both exciting and potentially dangerous developments: longer, healthier lives; cheap, generally available food, energy, and technology; reduced pollution and environmental stress; economic disruption during transitional periods; excessive power in too few hands; and, increased vulnerability from over-dependence on technology.Schmidt notes that even a routine technology such as the CAT scan is the result of three wholly separate innovations started many decades ago which recently converged: the X-ray, the computer, and advances in medicine. On a more ominous note, he also observes that the 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center was made possible by the malicious convergence of two separate trends in modern engineering and technology: the concentration of people in high rises within cities and the success of the passenger airline industry. The message is clear: the choices we make now will converge to create a near and distant future that will be almost unbelievably wonderful or unimaginably catastrophic, or both. This knowledgeable, fascinating glimpse into the future is a must read for everyone interested in technology, upcoming innovations in business, science fiction, and the future.
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4 reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful
Wonderfully lucid popular-science writing
9 April 2008
Format:Hardcover
Stanley Schmidt is our advance scout, journeying ahead to the glorious, complex future that awaits us all, and he reports back in this fabulous book, chock-full of the same kind of lucid and insightful commentary that has made his ANALOG editorials must-reading for three decades now. Schmidt gives us the same kind of clear-headed thinking and cleanly written prose that we associated with Asimov and Sagan.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
A critical but overlooked thesis
7 Oct 2008
Format:Hardcover
Dr. Schmidt has produced a thoughtful essay every month in his editorials for Analog. While this book is not a collection of those, it has the same sober, yet open intellectual inquisitiveness of those writings. And it has a single theme, which has not received enough attention, in my opinion. There was a time when men of science were also men of art, writing, and politics - people like Ben Franklin or Leonardo or Newton. Then the sciences became hyper-specialized, and that is the state of affairs today. However, technology is a different matter, and we see that what drives our world-wide societies, to a great degree, is the intended or unintended convergence of various technologies. Humanity reaches its highs and lows when different ideas are merged in ways not originally intended. Examples are landing men on the Moon, or crashing planes into buildings. This is our future, folks. We can learn how to progress wisely, or...
Written for the lay reader, one needs no background in science at all to understand every word of this book. It includes chapters that survey some cutting-edge technologies, indicating both how these resulted from diverse predecessors, and how they may yet evolve. Things like MRI, CT scans, and such are explained in simple terms. The latter part begins to wrestle with a strategy for managing these changes. The stakes could not be higher.
Written for the lay reader, one needs no background in science at all to understand every word of this book. It includes chapters that survey some cutting-edge technologies, indicating both how these resulted from diverse predecessors, and how they may yet evolve. Things like MRI, CT scans, and such are explained in simple terms. The latter part begins to wrestle with a strategy for managing these changes. The stakes could not be higher.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
futurology
19 July 2008
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
If one is interested in knowing where biotechnology, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence combined together may lead us, if one is thrilled by the future prospect of a superhumanity with undescribable abilities and powers, then this book is highly recommended.
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