The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change [Paperback]

 

 

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Henrik Svensmark's theory is that high-energy cosmic rays originating in the destruction of stars in other parts of our galaxy substantially explain the changes in the world's temperature throughout its history. Ice ages and hot periods, as well as shorter lived warming and cooling events (like the Mediaeval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age) are explained by the combination of our solar system's proximity to areas in the galaxy where cosmic activity is highest and the cycle of our Sun's magnetic activity (and thus its ability to protect us from those rays). How? Such cosmic rays - charged sub-atomic particles - stimulate the creation of low-level clouds, and those clouds cool the Earth by reflecting heat back into space. Svensmark does not duck the issue - he states that this effect explains most warming and cooling, leaving only a secondary role for changes in CO2, however caused. Such warming that has occurred over the last century was caused by unusually high magnetic activity of the Sun keeping cosmic radiation away, meaning fewer clouds and a warming world.

This book is written by Svensmark and Nigel Calder, a scientific journalist. It is highly readable and the science well explained. The book is made easier by the fact that the argument is explained in the overview at the start, and each chapter is preceded by a short summary. One quibble is that although there are chapter references at the back, it is not possible to identify the origin of all the bold assertions Svensmark and Calder make.

Svensmark has had his scientific critics; many are catalogued by name. Many, such as Bert Bolin, a Swedish professor of meteorology and member of the IPCC, abused his developing theory because it was "naive and dangerous" - it did not comply with the developing consensus that global warming is man made through the agency of CO2, and that to deny this was to encourage further complacency by self indulgent politicians and ordinary folk. Such attempts to stifle research do not reflect well on the scientists involved. The book gives the impression that he has won over many outright critics and many other scientists who similarly sought explanations for global temperature changes in extra-terrestrial sources but who posited different mechanisms.

Certainly, if you are inclined to wonder, there is ample evidence that Svensmark is working with many scientific colleagues - he is no lone crank - and even where he is not actively working with others his theories have found supporting evidence from other work in other fields - including work that was being undertaken without any obvious connection to climate change research. Although primarily a theoretical physicist, he conducted experiments in the basement of his Danish National Research Centre, apparently demonstrating the cloud forming effectiveness of muons, or high-energy electrons. It seems to me that he and his colleagues have made their case well, quite the contrary to the impression given by Inge Brede Johannessen below. Nor, Mr Listen, is there anything remotely polemic about it! In 2010 an experiment at CERN may provide further evidence of the physics of the basic process. But for the global warming consensus this experiment, originally devised by another scientist and blocked, the book suggest, by physicists unwilling to expose themselves to the criticism of the global warming consensus, might have taken place five years ago.

If your mind is open to the questions (a) is the planet warming? And, if so, (b) why? and (c) how much? then this is a book for you. The science is not that difficult to understand, though if you are a layman like me then you have I think to be modest enough to admit that you probably couldn't identify any scientific howlers in the book, let alone in the Svensmark and colleagues' scientific papers listed in the back. As I write the world's great and good have jetted off to Bali to discuss climate change "mitigation", and most of that mitigation will involve restricting CO2 emission. As others such as Bjorn Lomborg have pointed out, the cost of such a restriction may be the loss of much of the economic growth, and the alleviation of poverty, that would otherwise happen. It is always worth considering whether we have identified the right enemy - or even whether there is an enemy at all. Besides, we all know about ice ages: have you ever wondered what actually caused them?

Henrik Svensmark, director of the Centre of Sun-Climate Research at the Danish National Space Centre, and Nigel Calder, the well-known science writer, have produced a challenging book on climate change.

When stars die, they do so in supernova explosions that emit cosmic rays, which create ions, which form clouds. Low clouds - less than 3000 metres above the surface - keep the planet cool. The less active the sun is, the more cosmic rays get through to the earth, and so the more clouds there are to cool the earth.

The Danish National Space Centre's SKY experiment showed how cosmic rays set free electrons which then catalysed the clubbing together of sulphuric acid molecules, the most important source of condensation nuclei. These cosmic rays have varied since the world began; their influx depends largely on where the earth is in the galaxy in our orbit around the centre of the Milky Way. When the earth is in dark regions with few stars where the rays are scarce, the climate is warm. When the earth is in bright regions where the rays are intense, the climate is cool.

The medieval warm period of 1000-1300 was followed by the cool periods of 1300-60 and 1450-1540, and a worse one, the little ice age of 1645-1715, then another cool period in 1790-1820. The peak of the little ice age was 1700, which coincided with the Maunder Minimum, when the sun's magnetic activity was very low, reducing its ability to shield the earth from cosmic rays.

In the last century, the sun's magnetic field doubled in strength, reducing the cosmic rays and so the clouds, thus heating up the earth by 0.70C from 1900 to 2005, 70% of the 20th century's warming. The authors predict that global warming in this century is likely to be at the low end of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's forecast of a 1.80C-40C rise by 2100.

Indeed, temperatures have not risen since 2001, even though global CO2 emissions have been rising faster than ever. Also, the Antarctic's area of sea ice grew by 8% between 1978 and 2005.

Over 200 years ago, no less a person than the King's Astronomer, William Herschel, tracked the price of wheat and bread and how these varied with sunspot activity. The link is clearly: more sunspots cause better weather giving better yields of wheat; with fewer sunspots the weather and wheat yield are worse. Although he could not have known the astronomical mechanism behind this, he observed and noticed this effect which has been tracked throughout the decades since.

With 21st century knowledge and scientific experience it is now possible to investigate the mechanism behind this. As a scientist (physicist) and engineer myself, I was keen to find an intelligent book about climate change, written by proper scientists, and I was happy when I found the book "The Chilling Stars". And having read it, I was not disappointed. It puts forward a most convincing argument, using scientific methods, as to what the main driver(s) of our climate are. It contains not only a description of the work done by the authors themselves, but also contain clear references to many other scientists stating their names, their particular field of study or research, their place of research and the findings of their work and how they relate to the subject of climate change - details which can be verified by any reader of the book.

The book also refers to proper, i.e. scientific, objections to the proposed theory, describing clearly what the anomalies were perceived to be, e.g. specifically during the Laschamp event. This prompted further investigation by the authors and their teams, whose theory was ultimately more complete and `water-tight' than the one originally proposed.

Furthermore, as a physicist myself I have been able to check for myself the information given in the book which is related to my own previous work, and every single item is correct. Specialists in other scientific fields such as cosmology, geology and meteorology can check details relevant to their work, and there is no reason to doubt that that information in those other specialist fields will likewise be correct.

In short, this is a very readable book which puts across a most convincing, more realistic theory on climate change. From data available from many sources (geological, meteorological and others), this book not only presents a most convincing theory on what drives climate, but also recognises that much scientific research still needs to be done. Despite great progress and knowledge, the last chapter states where research needs to continue, not just for the fields of geology, astronomy, etc. in themselves, but expertise must also pass between these areas to enable and even more complete this theory of climate change possible.

And as for the next stage, this reader will be keen to follow the next stage of research being done by the authors and their team - the ongoing research of the `Cloud' project at CERN.

To quote from André Gide (1869-1951): "Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who say they've found it."
From the content of this book and the ongoing investigation into the mechanism causing climate change (the `Cloud' project at CERN) the authors of this book and their teams clearly belong to the first category. Those who claim to have the (inconvenient) truth fit into the second category.

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5.0 out of 5 stars A new science "Cosmoclimatology"
Anybody interested in climatology should read this book. Anybody interested in both climatology and cosmology MUST read this book. Read more

Published 3 months ago by Yelzab

5.0 out of 5 stars More than just about Climate Change
This book was bought based on a recommendation from a Climate Sceptic website and fulfilled the expectation in that regard. Read more

Published 4 months ago by I. Preddy

4.0 out of 5 stars The Chilling Stars
I heard about the Chilling Stars on the radio late one night, it sounded like the perfect present for a brother's birthday and one who is difficult to buy for! Read more

Published 15 months ago by Daisy

4.0 out of 5 stars The open minded will thoroughly enjoy this...
NOTE: There are two editions of this book, buy the later one The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate published in February 2008, it has been updated with a large new chapter... Read more

Published on 2 Aug 2008 by M B

5.0 out of 5 stars The Climate Is Changing!
Ever thought that maybe, just maybe the climate might not stay exactly as it is today? Ever thought that because you were told about ice ages at school that climate change... Read more

Published on 8 July 2008 by Ian Cook

1.0 out of 5 stars Questionable!
Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder (ex. New Scientist editor) attempt to dispel years of work of climatologists by 'proving' a correlation between cosmic rays and global warming,... Read more

Published on 3 Feb 2008 by J. Rowson

4.0 out of 5 stars Interesting
A fascinating theory that could explain a great deal about the Earth's climate history. On-going reasearch should prove or disprove the authors' ideas within the next few years,... Read more

Published on 16 Oct 2007 by Peter Alexander

2.0 out of 5 stars Possibly a good theory, ruined by a badly written book
There is pretty good evidence that more than one factor (more than just Co2) contributes to climate change and in particular the role of clouds in the temperature regulation of... Read more

Published on 21 July 2007 by BlueChippy

4.0 out of 5 stars An Interesting Theory
I bought this book as I wanted to read an alternative to the idea that global warming is caused by man-made greenhouse gases. Read more

Published on 15 July 2007 by mark ayers

1.0 out of 5 stars Dishonest book
First of all I have to give praise to anyone who dares to challenge prevailing theories, often putting their own careers on the line. Read more

Published on 12 July 2007 by Inge Brede Johannessen

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