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Chasing Rainbows looks at what the commonly held beliefs are about what we should do to avoid, curtail or adapt to global warming and compares them to what we should actually be doing. This is not an argument about the science: Worstall leaves that entirely to others to debate. Rather, what guides and indications can we get from the economics already embedded in such things as the IPCC reports and the Stern Review. The answers will shock some: globalisation is part of the cure for climate change. Recycling of some things certainly saves resources but of domestic waste actually wastes them. Creating green jobs is not a benefit but a cost of our actions. Drawing on the official reports that most agree is the scientific consensus and adding insights from economic theory, Worstall is able to show that much of what we're told we should do to save the planet is in fact wrong, diametrically opposed in many cases to what we should really be doing. It's not only desirable to have a cleaner, greener, richer world, it's also possible, and Worstall lays out what we need to do to achieve this. The 'Bishop Hill' blog recommended that this book 'should probably be gifted to every teenager as they leave the school system', while 'Stumbling and Mumbling' wrote that '...there are some brilliant flourishes. His idiot cousin metaphor for comparative advantage verges on the genius.'
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Tim Worstall is one of the few right-wing writers on economics leftish readers can bring themselves to read although we often hate ourselves (and him) for doing it. Although he takes a butcher's cleaver to many sacred cows of green thinking, his work is animated by a true concern about how to solve the great environmental challenges of our age --Nick Cohen, author of 'Waiting for the Etonians'
Fearless, fresh, forensic and funny, Tim Worstall cuts through all the nonsense and brings sparkling and profound economic insights to the environmental debate. Read this book. --Matt Ridley, author of 'The Rational Optimist'
Tim Worstall is asking the right questions, and often producing the right answers. Jaw-droppingly rude he may be, but he's smart, and this book is quite an education. --Tim Harford, author of 'The Undercover Economist'
Fearless, fresh, forensic and funny, Tim Worstall cuts through all the nonsense and brings sparkling and profound economic insights to the environmental debate. Read this book. --Matt Ridley, author of 'The Rational Optimist'
Tim Worstall is asking the right questions, and often producing the right answers. Jaw-droppingly rude he may be, but he's smart, and this book is quite an education. --Tim Harford, author of 'The Undercover Economist'
About the Author
Tim Worstall is both a businessman working in the field of renewable energy and a freelance writer. He has been published in The Times, Daily Telegraph, Daily Express, The Register and numerous other online sites. He is a Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute.
This isn't a "sceptic" book in that it accepts all the "consensus" science and policies of the IPCC and Lord Stern. What it does is show what simple economics tells us we should be doing to implement them. The economics are not controversial either, they are completely mainstream and well accepted. The conclusions are surprising though. The most vocal of campaigners and policy makers are proposing the wrong solutions. That is why it will bet lumped as a "denier book" and ignored. But don't ignore it, not only is it important, it is an easy read and an enjoyable one. This isn't some dry dusty tome but a short gallop, whooping and hollering across the landscape pointing out interesting asides and unexpected truths. You don't need to know any economics to appreciate it just an open mind.
This noisy polemic is by Tim Worstall, member of the Adam Smith Institute, press officer for the UKIP and commodity trader. He's not a climate scientist, so it's safe to ignore him. Except... he's an economist, and a good one. And here he examines the recommendations of the global warming lobby through the lens of some really basic economic axioms. Seen through the optic of Smith's needle factory, Bastiat's broken windows and Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage, all (ALL) the prescriptions for reducing global warming are wrong. Farmers' markets, green subsidies, compulsory sterilisation and one world government are "remedies" which will not achieve their aims and will make us much poorer.
This book is likely to be bought and read only by committed deniers, which is a pity. It should (and can - there is no math) be read by anyone without any grounding in economics. I would recommend it to our ruling class. What did we do to deserve such pig ignorant bosses?
Probably most of us reading this book at this point are familiar with Tim Worstall's blog, and the contents are reassuringly familiar - brusque, sometimes rude, to the point, and fundamentally a clear economic perspective on the environmental movement. Worstall's basic point is that in more cases than not, the stated aims of the environmental movement (i.e. to minimise human impact on the environment), do not translate to supporting policies which will bring about that goal. His point is that other agendas (which he does not get into detail about) seem to be driving the movement. His technique is to do a cost/benefit analysis of any particular policy, e.g. to show that the cost of asking us to sort our own recycling is simply not known, and at some level will outweigh the benefit of this activity. Or that buying locally does not necessarily have a smaller impact on the environment than sourcing a good from somewhere where it can be produced more efficiently (e.g. buying farm product from New Zealand may produce less externalities than buying from the UK, if in the UK farming requires mitigating against the cold winters by keeping livestock in heated sheds). He's probably preaching to the converted, in my case I have my own suspicions that the environmental movement attracts those who would like an economy planned centrally by the government, i.e. the movement has picked up those who would have supported communism in the 1980s.
I am a trained nothing, but sceptical of most heavily promoted theories and "sciences". Having read Tim's blog for years, and had some small correspondence with him, I bought this book and read it with ease and enjoyment. I recommend it to anyone except climate religionists. Alan Douglas
This is a truly dreadful book. The first problem is that it is written in the style of an unsophisticated sixth former who thinks he has just discovered the ultimate truths of the universe and that everyone else is a complete moron (this appears to be the house style of the Adam Smith Institute by the way). However, leaving stylistic questions aside, there are much more serious problems with the substance of his argument, the most important of which are set out below.
First, Worstall makes great play of the idea that one of the two most important concepts in economics is that "there ain't no such thing as a free lunch" (p9). [This is incidentally one of those canards that is usually advanced by overweight right wing commentators who have benefitted from one too many of said free lunches]. What he means by this is that every resource has an opportunity cost. Unfortunately (for him), he then goes on to refute his own argument (p23) by demonstrating conclusively that there is a class of goods (non-rivalrous and non-excludable) which have no opportunity cost regardless of how many people use them (ie. public goods or free lunches). He even gives us an example - Newton's equations of gravity. There are many other examples of such free lunches notwithstanding the efforts of lobbyists to capture this value for their clients through excessive intellectual property protection laws. So, it turns out that his most important premise is undermined by his own argument.
Second, Worstall argues that one of the big problems with environmentalists is that they fail to take account of the (non)fact that there is no such thing as a free lunch, and thereby propose policies which are economically (and ultimately environmentally) damaging.... Specifically, he mocks the idea that the creation of green jobs is a benefit to society on the grounds that we only count the visible benefits (people in skilled jobs making wind turbines) and do not take account of the invisible costs (what people not making wind turbines would otherwise be engaged in). In reality of course, the empirical evidence since Mrs Thatcher's failed social experiment of the 1980s shows that people not engaged in making wind turbines (or ships, or steel, or chemicals) do not tend to discover a cure for cancer when liberated from this toil. On the contrary, what they tend to do is live off welfare, drink strong lager, and leave trails of pregnant women, petty crime and general anti-social behavior in their wake. This constitutes a social cost. Now you can argue about the magnitude of these costs and benefits, but what you can't do (if you want to be taken seriously outside of the sixth form common room) is state as self evident truth that these green jobs always constitute an opportunity cost. Indeed, what greens are actually arguing is that creating skilled jobs making wind turbines adds to the sum total of human happiness because there is no opportunity cost from the creation of green jobs - there is in fact an opportunity benefit because we take people out of value destroying anti-social activities and put them into higher value creating (or less value destroying if you prefer) activities.
Third (and worst of all) Worstall fails to apply his own rigorous standards of cost benefit analysis to the most important of all economic metrics - GDP. On the one hand he freely acknowledges that GDP is a poor measure of economic welfare (p35) because it only counts economic goods (all financial transactions) but fails to take account of economic negatives (depletion of capital stock, destruction of natural capital, impact of pollution etc. etc.). On the other hand he then argues that since economic negatives are difficult to measure, we should simply ignore them and carry on regardless using GDP(like the drunk under the lamp-post looking for his keys). This is breathtaking hypocrisy given the abuse he dishes out to environmentalists for allegedly being guilty of this very crime in relation to the much less significant issues of recycling and green job creation. Even worse, it means that we have no way of knowing if the marginal benefits of economic growth outweigh the marginal costs: yet this is absolutely critical to the whole debate concerning the limits to economic growth.
Fourth, in the chapter on globalisation he makes a very big deal of the fact that environmentalists allegedly don't understand the concept of comparative advantage. Of course environmentalists understand this concept, but they also know that there are two fundamental weaknesses in the argument that everyone always benefits from free trade. First, this is only the case where all countries have the same environmental standards, otherwise it is possible to export (or import) externalities. This is indeed why common environmental standards are set in Brussels to ensure that the Single European Market functions effectively. Second, everyone benefits from free trade only where there is no free movement of capital between countries. As soon as capital constraints are removed (as prescribed by the free market fundamentalists), then capital no longer needs to search for a local comparative advantage as it can go and look for an absolute advantage elsewhere. Whilst global gains from trade are not precluded under absolute advantage, there is certainly no guarantee of mutual benefit. Some countries could lose, in spite of the fact that global wealth increases. Indeed, given that there is no free movement of labour to match free movement of capital, this will encourage those countries that lose to break environmental rules in order to create an (illegitimate) absolute advantage. Furthermore, the WTO/GATT has consistently (and perversely) ruled that free trade concerns must take precedence over environmental concerns in trade disputes. This means that under the current terms of trade there is no guarantee that the benefits of free trade outweigh the costs. That is why environmentalists object to globalisation.
There are numerous other fallacies and/or half truths in this book relating to substitutability of resources and the ability to grow the economy exponentially whilst simultaneously reducing the consumption of natural resources. I won't spell out these errors here because Herman Daly has already done this job admirably in his book `Steady State Economics' which was published as long ago as 1977. Mr Worstall should take a look - he might learn something.Read more ›