- Paperback: 202 pages
- Publisher: Springer; Ill edition (1 Sep 1999)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 0387987681
- ISBN-13: 978-0387987682
- Product Dimensions: 22.9 x 15.2 x 1.8 cm
- Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (1 customer review)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 1,213,772 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- See Complete Table of Contents
Chance Rules
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Product Description
Review
From the reviews of the second edition: "This book takes its place in a long line of books on probability directed to nonmathematicians. … the author gives those readers interested in more details some simple mathematics in various places, with the comment that readers uneasy with mathematics can pass over these details without losing the main thrust, but encourages readers to make the effort. … readers who try to follow the mathematical details will probably find these to be helpful exercises." (Gerald A. Heuer, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1156, 2009)
Product Description
An entertaining exploration of aspects of chance, risk and probability, ranging from the toss of a coin to the use of clinical trials in medicine and the evaluation of alternative therapies. Aimed at all those who would like to discover more about chance and the way it operates in a variety of settings, the book is written by the prolific author, Professor Brian S. Everitt, Head of the Biostatistics and Computing Department at Kings College, London.
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Unable to get into my garden because of the heavy rain, I pick up the TV remote control and begin to flick idly through the channels. Read the first page
Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
Unable to get into my garden because of the heavy rain, I pick up the TV remote control and begin to flick idly through the channels. Read the first page
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Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Really good fun,
By A Customer
This review is from: Chance Rules: An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics (Paperback)
This is a really sociable book. It is fun to read with friends (i.e. i'll bet you didn't know...), it's full of useful facts about shared birthdays, frequency of poker hands, information on contract bridge and top tips on winning more money on the lottery - its a good source of info for winning arguments (a winner all round!).There is also a serious side to this book (cancer, babies, dna testing and quantifying risk) which makes for a very interesting read. Overall this book really makes you think about chance in our everyday lives. Well done Brian Everitt, I hope you write a lot more popular books on similar subjects in the not too distant future.
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta) Amazon.com:
4.0 out of 5 stars (2 customer reviews) 7 of 7 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars
Well written traditional account of probability,
By David J. Aldous "gentleman scholar" - Published on Amazon.com
This review is from: Chance Rules: An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics (Hardcover)
In the better half of the dozen or so popular science style books on probability that I have read and reviewed. The selection of topics (listed below) is very traditional and the author has chosen to cover many topics briefly rather than a few topics in depth; in other regards it has a middle of the road style. That is, in the middle of spectra (a) from gee-whiz enthusiasm to dry analysis; (b) from absolutely no mathematics to too much mathematics. What it says is almost everywhere clear and correct, though the book as a whole lacks individualistic style or focus. Indeed the only unique feature I noticed is that it mentions neither the normal curve nor power law distributions -- other books tend to overemphasize at least one of those topics. Like other books by academics (the most similar previous one being Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities) it implicitly focuses on topics related to traditional College freshman statistics courses rather than those arising from fashionable research (random models of social networks or the Internet, genetic algorithms, fractals ...) which tend to be emphasized in books written by professional science writers.
List of topics: brief history, rules for combining probabilities, combinations and permutations, the gambler's fallacy, waiting times for patterns in coin tossing, games (lottery, roulette, poker, blackjack) and sports (horse racing, football pools), Bayes rule illustrated by positive/negative medical diagnostics and by the O.J. Simpson and Sally Clark cases, paradoxes (2 boys, Monte Hall, surprise exam, St Petersburg), secretary problem, birthday coincidences and anecdotes about real-world coincidences, risk perception and influence of positive/negative presentation of risk/reward, randomization in clinical trials, and evidence regarding acupuncture and homeopathy, modeling illustrated by improving sports records and stock markets, and brief final mentions of chaos, quantum theory and random mutations as the driving force behind evolution.
4.0 out of 5 stars
Interesting yet those who have high school level knowledge about probability will find it more digestable,
By ServantofGod - Published on Amazon.com
This review is from: Chance Rules: An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics (Hardcover)
The author had done a great job to make such a complicated subject so interesting and easily digestable by mass audience. Honestly, I dont understand all the topics but at least it builds into my mind that chance rules and my first impression about probability of an issue is almost always wrong. In short, recommended! p.s. Below please find a few favorite passages of mine for your reference. There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he cant afford it, and when he can - Mark Twain pg47 Probability that all r birthdays are different: 2-0.997, 20-0.589, 100-0.00000031 pg79 Probability of at least one birthday the same as yours: 1-0.003, 100-0.24, 253-0.500 pg80 The luck of having talent is not enough; one must also have a talent for luck. - Hector Berlioz pg87 A neighbor has two children. One is a boy. What is the probability of the other child is also a boy? 1/3 pg106 In any evaluation of risk it has to be remembered that life itself is a universally fatal sexually transmitted disease and that in the end nobody cheats death. A strong case can be made for living a life of modified hedonism so that we may enjoy to the full the only life which we are likely to have. Pg134 The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions. - Paul Samuelson pg169 |
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