- Hardcover: 209 pages
- Publisher: Springer; 2nd ed. 2008 edition (3 Nov 2008)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 0387781293
- ISBN-13: 978-0387781297
- Product Dimensions: 24 x 16.2 x 2.4 cm
- Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (1 customer review)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 438,558 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- See Complete Table of Contents
Chance Rules
and over one million other books are available for Amazon Kindle .
Learn more
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Did you know you can trade in your old books for an Amazon.co.uk Gift Card to spend on the things you want? Plus, get an extra £5 Gift Certificate when you trade in books worth £10 or more before June 30, 2012. Visit the Books Trade-In Store for more details. |
Product details |
More About the Author
Product Description
Review
From the reviews of the second edition: "This book takes its place in a long line of books on probability directed to nonmathematicians. … the author gives those readers interested in more details some simple mathematics in various places, with the comment that readers uneasy with mathematics can pass over these details without losing the main thrust, but encourages readers to make the effort. … readers who try to follow the mathematical details will probably find these to be helpful exercises." (Gerald A. Heuer, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1156, 2009) “…When dealing with conditional probability…you may enjoy the delightful book by Professor Everitt! According to the Preface, ‘As in the first edition, I have tried to keep the mathematical details to the very minimum although a few formidable looking formulae do occasionally appear.’” (Simo Puntanen, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tampere, Finland) “Brian Everitt’s second edition of Chance Rules continues to be a valuable guide for addressing issues of probability with audiences of non-statisticians. … Rich with history, concisely explaining in various parts of the book the history of probabilistic thinking, gambling, and the evolving role of statistics in medicine. This historical approach provides the context that makes this “not” a dry book. …uses engaging examples that will help build statistical literacy…” (The American Statistician, February 2010, Vol. 64, No. 1) “Practitioners, students, professors. What should you do when somebody is telling you that there is a system that is capable of reliable and accurate prediction when it comes to stock market movements? Why were things better when I was young? What did Professor Everitt reply in his younger days, when women in parties used to ask what he did for living? … If the above topics make you curious, you may enjoy the delightful book by Professor Everitt!” (Simo Puntanen, International Statistical Review, Vol. 78 (1), 2010)
Review
From the reviews of the second edition: "This book takes its place in a long line of books on probability directed to nonmathematicians. ! the author gives those readers interested in more details some simple mathematics in various places, with the comment that readers uneasy with mathematics can pass over these details without losing the main thrust, but encourages readers to make the effort. ! readers who try to follow the mathematical details will probably find these to be helpful exercises." (Gerald A. Heuer, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1156, 2009) "!When dealing with conditional probability!you may enjoy the delightful book by Professor Everitt! According to the Preface, 'As in the first edition, I have tried to keep the mathematical details to the very minimum although a few formidable looking formulae do occasionally appear.'" (Simo Puntanen, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tampere, Finland) "Brian Everitt's second edition of Chance Rules continues to be a valuable guide for addressing issues of probability with audiences of non-statisticians. ! Rich with history, concisely explaining in various parts of the book the history of probabilistic thinking, gambling, and the evolving role of statistics in medicine. This historical approach provides the context that makes this "not" a dry book. !uses engaging examples that will help build statistical literacy!" (The American Statistician, February 2010, Vol. 64, No. 1) "Practitioners, students, professors. What should you do when somebody is telling you that there is a system that is capable of reliable and accurate prediction when it comes to stock market movements? Why were things better when I was young? What did Professor Everitt reply in his younger days, when women in parties used to ask what he did for living? ! If the above topics make you curious, you may enjoy the delightful book by Professor Everitt!" (Simo Puntanen, International Statistical Review, Vol. 78 (1), 2010)
Inside This Book
(Learn More)
Suggested Tags from Similar Products(What's this?)Be the first one to add a relevant tag (keyword that's strongly related to this product)
|
What Other Items Do Customers Buy After Viewing This Item?
Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
This is a really sociable book. It is fun to read with friends (i.e. i'll bet you didn't know...), it's full of useful facts about shared birthdays, frequency of poker hands, information on contract bridge and top tips on winning more money on the lottery - its a good source of info for winning arguments (a winner all round!).
There is also a serious side to this book (cancer, babies, dna testing and quantifying risk) which makes for a very interesting read. Overall this book really makes you think about chance in our everyday lives. Well done Brian Everitt, I hope you write a lot more popular books on similar subjects in the not too distant future.
Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta)
Amazon.com:
2 reviews
9 of 9 people found the following review helpful
Well written traditional account of probability
26 Oct 2008
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
In the better half of the dozen or so popular science style books on probability that I have read and reviewed. The selection of topics (listed below) is very traditional and the author has chosen to cover many topics briefly rather than a few topics in depth; in other regards it has a middle of the road style. That is, in the middle of spectra (a) from gee-whiz enthusiasm to dry analysis; (b) from absolutely no mathematics to too much mathematics. What it says is almost everywhere clear and correct, though the book as a whole lacks individualistic style or focus. Indeed the only unique feature I noticed is that it mentions neither the normal curve nor power law distributions -- other books tend to overemphasize at least one of those topics. Like other books by academics (the most similar previous one being Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities) it implicitly focuses on topics related to traditional College freshman statistics courses rather than those arising from fashionable research (random models of social networks or the Internet, genetic algorithms, fractals ...) which tend to be emphasized in books written by professional science writers.
List of topics: brief history, rules for combining probabilities, combinations and permutations, the gambler's fallacy, waiting times for patterns in coin tossing, games (lottery, roulette, poker, blackjack) and sports (horse racing, football pools), Bayes rule illustrated by positive/negative medical diagnostics and by the O.J. Simpson and Sally Clark cases, paradoxes (2 boys, Monte Hall, surprise exam, St Petersburg), secretary problem, birthday coincidences and anecdotes about real-world coincidences, risk perception and influence of positive/negative presentation of risk/reward, randomization in clinical trials, and evidence regarding acupuncture and homeopathy, modeling illustrated by improving sports records and stock markets, and brief final mentions of chaos, quantum theory and random mutations as the driving force behind evolution.
List of topics: brief history, rules for combining probabilities, combinations and permutations, the gambler's fallacy, waiting times for patterns in coin tossing, games (lottery, roulette, poker, blackjack) and sports (horse racing, football pools), Bayes rule illustrated by positive/negative medical diagnostics and by the O.J. Simpson and Sally Clark cases, paradoxes (2 boys, Monte Hall, surprise exam, St Petersburg), secretary problem, birthday coincidences and anecdotes about real-world coincidences, risk perception and influence of positive/negative presentation of risk/reward, randomization in clinical trials, and evidence regarding acupuncture and homeopathy, modeling illustrated by improving sports records and stock markets, and brief final mentions of chaos, quantum theory and random mutations as the driving force behind evolution.
0 of 1 people found the following review helpful
Interesting yet those who have high school level knowledge about probability will find it more digestable
31 Oct 2011
Format:Hardcover
The author had done a great job to make such a complicated subject so interesting and easily digestable by mass audience. Honestly, I dont understand all the topics but at least it builds into my mind that chance rules and my first impression about probability of an issue is almost always wrong. In short, recommended!
p.s. Below please find a few favorite passages of mine for your reference.
There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he cant afford it, and when he can - Mark Twain pg47
Probability that all r birthdays are different: 2-0.997, 20-0.589, 100-0.00000031 pg79
Probability of at least one birthday the same as yours: 1-0.003, 100-0.24, 253-0.500 pg80
The luck of having talent is not enough; one must also have a talent for luck. - Hector Berlioz pg87
A neighbor has two children. One is a boy. What is the probability of the other child is also a boy? 1/3 pg106
In any evaluation of risk it has to be remembered that life itself is a universally fatal sexually transmitted disease and that in the end nobody cheats death. A strong case can be made for living a life of modified hedonism so that we may enjoy to the full the only life which we are likely to have. Pg134
The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions. - Paul Samuelson pg169
p.s. Below please find a few favorite passages of mine for your reference.
There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he cant afford it, and when he can - Mark Twain pg47
Probability that all r birthdays are different: 2-0.997, 20-0.589, 100-0.00000031 pg79
Probability of at least one birthday the same as yours: 1-0.003, 100-0.24, 253-0.500 pg80
The luck of having talent is not enough; one must also have a talent for luck. - Hector Berlioz pg87
A neighbor has two children. One is a boy. What is the probability of the other child is also a boy? 1/3 pg106
In any evaluation of risk it has to be remembered that life itself is a universally fatal sexually transmitted disease and that in the end nobody cheats death. A strong case can be made for living a life of modified hedonism so that we may enjoy to the full the only life which we are likely to have. Pg134
The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions. - Paul Samuelson pg169
Were these reviews helpful?
Let us know
Listmania!
Look for similar items by category
Look for similar items by subject
Feedback
- Would you like to update product info or give feedback on images?
- I am the Author, and I want to comment on my book.
- I am the Publisher, and I want to comment on this book.
|
