Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win (Outlooks) [Paperback]

To knowledge seekers, the ability to understand and beat a system is the entire game. In this book, Skiena describes how he and some of his students wrote a computer program to win money betting on professional jai alai matches. Along the way, he explains the origins of the game and some of the basic rules, the fundamental bets that can be made as well as the meaning of statements such as pari-mutuel betting. His program does work well, in that he quadruples his money in a short time. Once that is done, he gives the money to a university charity, hoping to make his money from writing this book.
The fact that such a program could be created is not surprising. Jai-alai is a sport where individuals compete one-on-one or in teams of two, and the betting patterns determine the payoffs. It is much easier to simulate these types of matchups and predict the outcome than it is for team games. Baseball managers have been doing such modeling for years. If my memory serves me correctly, the first to do it in major league baseball was Davey Johnson, who kept detailed statistics on all pitcher-batter matchups. All of his decisions concerning who to put up to bat were then based on playing the percentages. That is essentially what Skiena does, although with a different twist. Pari-mutuel betting is where those who wager are betting against each other, so the patterns of wagering determine the payoffs. The patterns of betting are also factored into his predictions. These conditions make it possible for someone to make money creating such a system, but only as long as no one else is doing it. If others begin to use the same system, then the players are betting against each other, destroying the opportunity to make a profit. Therefore, his very act of publishing this book probably means that his system can no longer be used to win at jai-alai betting.
This is an excellent example of how basic mathematical modeling is done. Use data of previous results to form a model of what has happened in order to predict what will happen. Skiena writes with a wit and rigor that is rarely seen in mathematics. Very little mathematics background is needed in order to understand the explanations of the behavior of the program and why it works.
I found this book so interesting that I stayed up very late finishing it. It reads like a novel, but teaches you a lot about mathematics. Instructors in mathematical modeling and computer programming can find many interesting ideas for classroom exercises in it. As long as no one takes it too seriously, it is all in good, clean fun.

Jai-alai is possibly the most beautiful and exciting sport in the world, full of fast-paced, amazingly athletic action, and you can actually bet on it! A dog race takes less than a minute, most horse races less than two, and then you stand around for half an hour waiting for the next one. In jai-alai, you get less than ten minutes between games, and the action-packed games themselves can go on for twenty or more - which can be, if you have a bet riding on the outcome, an eternity. Jai-alai is also the most difficult of all sports to handicap, due to a fiendish scoring system called "Spectacular Seven." It took me years to figure this thing out, and for years I thought I was the only one in the world who'd done it. Now Steve Skiena, Professor of Computer Science at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, has gone and published a book that tells everyone how to figure it out. I'd love to pan this book, to discourage everyone from reading it and learning most of my precious winning tricks, but it's just too darned good.
Almost the only flaw I find in the book is that Skiena is not as maniacal in expressing his love of the incredibly beautiful sport of jai-alai as I would have been. He comes close, and I certainly hope this book inspires more people to experience this amazing spectacle first-hand. There is nothing like it in all the sporting world, and although it has been broadcast on television at times, it really has to be seen in person to be appreciated. A single performance of jai-alai has as much action crammed into four hours or so as an entire season of football: all the drama, all the farce; the highs, the lows, the blown calls by the referees, the rowdy fans. I could watch it every day, never bet a dime and still be thrilled. Skiena does manage to convey the excitement of a game, especially when a bet is riding on it, as the action unfolds point by hard-fought, critically important point. Unlike baseball, no catch or throw in a jai-alai game is ever "routine," and when your team is at game point, you can find yourself not breathing for surprisingly long periods of time. And the acrobatics of the players can be astonishing - I have seen men jump their own height up a sheer wall, and then seemingly stand there, defying gravity, waiting for the ball to come to them. Willy Mays couldn't do it better, nor even Michael J.
But betting is the name of this game, and is examined in the book in scrupulous detail. Using fairly easy-to-understand mathematical methods, with a few equations, but nothing that requires a rocket scientist to understand, Skiena shows the reader how to take apart the game of jai-alai and see what makes it tick. He explains the scoring system, which I once likened to the Devil's work for its devious unfairness, and proceeds to analyze exactly *how* it is unfair, and how to take advantage of those quirks. And he does it more efficiently than I ever did, analyzing not only the game itself, but the way money can be made on it by managing your bets properly.
I cannot fault any of his mathematical or computer-programming details, since I have used pretty near all of them myself. I used a different programming language, and slightly different methods of analysing the data - for instance, I never bothered with charting all the pay-outs for various bets. Nor have I kept scrupulous track of my own bets, save in those few instances when I won enough to have to pay the tax-man his share. But the methods he gives are utterly sound, and will work. I can testify to this from personal experience.
Since none of the math and little of the stuff about jai-alai is new to me, I took my main pleasure in the book from reading Skiena's personal views on jai-alai, and a handful of his personal observations - I wish there'd been more - on the life of a mathematican. Best of all were his pointed insights into the nature of mathematics in general, and probability and statistics in particular. I wish he would concentrate these into a single essay and send it to every major newspaper or magazine whose motto is "the public has a right to know." If the public has a "right to know" every miniscule detail about certain stains on a certain blue dress, or the foolish shenanigans of a certain Congressman who has more libido than his tiny brain knows what to do with, then they surely have a "right to know" Skiena's de-mystifying explanation of what makes probability and statistics tick. Considering that these are two of the most misunderstood and misreported items in the entire repertoire of today's newspapers and magazines, at least their editors and reporters should read this book.
Skiena ranges over a variety of topics, and demonstrates how things that seem entirely different turn out to be related quite closely. He also examines and dispells many of the myths that surround both jai-alai and mathematics. Yet he never gets bogged down in equations, or fails to keep things clear and to the point.
In short, buy this book, and read it, and think about it, and if you are anywhere near a fronton, go and see some jai-alai games. Just don't bet on the team wearing stripes - those are the referees.

This is a fascinating book. It captures exactly the excitement of starting out in programming and working on a project in your spare-time simply because the project seems like a fun, cool thing to write, such as a program for predicting the outcome of football games. Even if you don't come from a mathematics/programming background, I think you'll find the book very interesting. Chapter 4, "The Impact of the Internet", alone, is worth the cost of the book.

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