Start reading Blindside on your Kindle in under a minute. Don't have a Kindle? Get your Kindle here or start reading now with a free Kindle Reading App.

Deliver to your Kindle or other device

 
 
 

Try it free

Sample the beginning of this book for free

Deliver to your Kindle or other device

Sorry, this item is not available in
Image not available for
Colour:
Image not available
 

Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics [Kindle Edition]

Francis Fukuyama
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)

Print List Price: £14.50
Kindle Price: £13.78 includes VAT* & free wireless delivery via Amazon Whispernet
You Save: £0.72 (5%)
* Unlike print books, digital books are subject to VAT.

Free Kindle Reading App Anybody can read Kindle books—even without a Kindle device—with the FREE Kindle app for smartphones, tablets and computers.

To get the free app, enter your e-mail address or mobile phone number.

Formats

Amazon Price New from Used from
Kindle Edition £13.78  
Hardcover £22.95  
Paperback £14.50  
Kindle Daily Deal
Kindle Daily Deal: Up to 70% off
Each day we unveil a new book deal at a specially discounted price--for that day only. Learn more about the Kindle Daily Deal or sign up for the Kindle Daily Deal Newsletter to receive free e-mail notifications about each day's deal.

Book Description

A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises —like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired —have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future.

Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios —particularly those of low probability and high impact —have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine.

Bl indside is organized into four main sections. "Thinking about Strategic Surprise" addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. The following two sections pinpoint the failures —institutional as well as personal —that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. In "Pollyana vs. Cassandra," for example, James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook debate the future state of the world going forward. Mitchell Waldrop explores why technology forecasting is so poor and why that is likely to remain the case. In the book's final section, "What Could Be," internationally renowned authorities discuss low probability, high-impact contingencies in their area of expertise. For example, Scott Barrett looks at emerging infectious diseases, while Gal Luft and Anne Korin discuss energy security.

How can we avoid being blindsided by unforeseen events? There is no easy or obvious answer. But it is essential that we understand the obstacles that prevent us first from seeing the future clearly and then from acting appropriately on our insights. This readable and fascinating book is an important step in that direction.


Product Description

Review

"Fukuyama offers creative thinking about the future." -- ForeWord Magazine, 11/1/2007

About the Author

Francis Fukuyama is the Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, Maryland, USA. Among his many successful books are America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy (Yale, 2007), and The End of History and the Last Man (Free Press, 2nd paperback ed., 2006). He is a member of the executive committee and editorial board chairman of The American Interest, Washington, D.C., USA.

Product details

  • Format: Kindle Edition
  • File Size: 1972 KB
  • Print Length: 198 pages
  • Publisher: Brookings Institution Press (28 Aug. 2007)
  • Sold by: Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B002R0DSOQ
  • Text-to-Speech: Enabled
  • X-Ray:
  • Word Wise: Enabled
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #798,649 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
  •  Would you like to give feedback on images?


More About the Authors

Discover books, learn about writers, and more.

Customer Reviews

5 star
0
3 star
0
2 star
0
1 star
0
4.0 out of 5 stars
4.0 out of 5 stars
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Playing with wild cards 14 Feb. 2008
By Rolf Dobelli TOP 1000 REVIEWER
Format:Hardcover
"Prediction is very hard," Yogi Berra supposedly remarked, "especially about the future." It's hard to argue with that, but even skeptics must admit that such events as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the East Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s or the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 came as a shock even to most experts. Yet, for all its difficulty, forecasting matters. No one, whether in government or business, wants to be blindsided by oil shocks, declining stocks, environmental crises, global pandemics, natural disasters or any of the other nasty surprises that chance sometimes delivers. Can anything be done, or must humanity merely watch the wheel of fortune spin, hoping for the best? According to this modest book, something can be done. Even when specific predictions are hard, if not impossible, leaders can "plan for surprise" by developing scenarios, boning up on history, overcoming cognitive biases and learning to think about the types of significant disruptions that could arise. While this uneven collection of articles is understandably short on conclusions, getAbstract predicts it will help you think about the unthinkable.
Comment | 
Was this review helpful to you?
Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta)
Amazon.com: 4.0 out of 5 stars  4 reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars Good Material, Not So Good Writing 31 Mar. 2013
By D. Chapman - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
If you want a good book on this subject, read one of Nassim Taleb's books.

He covers much of the same material, and he writes better.

---

After reading this book, I am convinced that truly unexpected events
are very rare: What is mostly going on is that decision makers ignore
obvious trends and fail to make contingency plans for low-probability
events. Then, they say stuff like:

"No one could have foreseen the attacks of 9/11", or

"It was not possible to anticipate the financial crisis".

(Tom Clancy was writing books about 9/11-type events 20 years
before it happened, and lots of people on Wall Street were talking
about the financial crisis before the news media noticed.
Meredith Whitney comes to mind.)

I think that the real problem in creating policy with regard
to low-probability events is that the public allows incompetent
people to say "Golly Gosh, NOBODY could POSSIBLY have predicted
that" and get away with it.

Anyway, I cannot recommend this book, on the grounds of poor writing style.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Outstanding collection 9 May 2012
By Student - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback|Verified Purchase
This compilation by Francis Fukuyama, is an excellent compilation of the work of several up and coming authors. They approach the subject of national security in a unique and thought provoking manner. While some positions are debatable, it nevertheless makes excellent reading and stimulation g mind gymnastics. Recommended
4 of 6 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Playing with wild cards 14 Feb. 2008
By Rolf Dobelli - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Hardcover
"Prediction is very hard," Yogi Berra supposedly remarked, "especially about the future." It's hard to argue with that, but even skeptics must admit that such events as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the East Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s or the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 came as a shock even to most experts. Yet, for all its difficulty, forecasting matters. No one, whether in government or business, wants to be blindsided by oil shocks, declining stocks, environmental crises, global pandemics, natural disasters or any of the other nasty surprises that chance sometimes delivers. Can anything be done, or must humanity merely watch the wheel of fortune spin, hoping for the best? According to this modest book, something can be done. Even when specific predictions are hard, if not impossible, leaders can "plan for surprise" by developing scenarios, boning up on history, overcoming cognitive biases and learning to think about the types of significant disruptions that could arise. While this uneven collection of articles is understandably short on conclusions, getAbstract predicts it will help you think about the unthinkable.
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars 10 Sept. 2014
By Thomas E. Chase - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
great book
Were these reviews helpful?   Let us know
Search Customer Reviews
Only search this product's reviews

Customer Discussions

This product's forum
Discussion Replies Latest Post
No discussions yet

Ask questions, Share opinions, Gain insight
Start a new discussion
Topic:
First post:
Prompts for sign-in
 

Search Customer Discussions
Search all Amazon discussions
   


Look for similar items by category