An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming: Amazon.co.uk: Nigel Lawson: Books

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Review
'Only one senior political figure in Britain has dared stand apart from [the] stifling orthodoxy: Nigel Lawson' --The Telegraph

'On many points the sceptics happen to be correct. Nigel Lawson's short splendid book ... can leave no fair-minded reader in doubt on that score ... Elegantly written, thorough, entertaining and, above all, convincing' --The Financial Times

'Tightly argued ... Bombarded with the zealous certainties of those deaf to reasoned argument on the most important of issues, it is intensely refreshing to find in Nigel Lawson someome who, without claiming to have all the answers, is at least brave enough to ask eminently sensible questions' --The Spectator

Product Description
In this well-informed and hard-hitting response to the scaremongering of the climate alarmists, Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor of the Exchequer and Secretary of State for Energy, argues that it is time for us to take a cool look at global warming. Lawson carefully and succinctly examines all aspects of the global warming issue: the science, the economics, the politics, and the ethics. He concludes that, contrary to the deeply-flawed Stern Review, the conventional wisdom on the subject is suspect on a number of grounds; that global warming is not the devastating threat to the planet it is widely alleged ot be; and that the remedy that is currently being proposed, which is in any event politically unattainable, would be worse that the threat it is supposed to avert.All this is argued with logic, commmon sense, and even wit, and thoroughly sourced and referenced. The book concludes by outlining the form a rational response to global warming should take, and explains why the mistaken conventional wisdom has become the quasi-religion it is today, and the dangers that this presents. Lord Lawson has written a long overdue and much needed corrective to the barrage of spin and hype to which the politicians and media have been subjecting the public on this important issue, which affects us all.

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Customer Reviews

40 Reviews

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3 star:		(1)
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3.7 out of 5 stars (40 customer reviews)

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17 of 20 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Great common sense critic of Global Warming, and a smart discussion on the most cost-effective way to address the consequences, 25 Jan 2009

By	Emc2 (Tropical Utopia) - See all my reviews

This is a short and well-written book, provocative and full of smart and no nonsense arguments. Lawson provides end notes for each chapter and all bibliographical sources are properly referenced. The book's aim is to examine each of the dimensions of the consensus view of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), including the science, the economics, the politics, and the ethical aspects. He is concerned with the uncertainties of long-term forecasting and the lack of a real cost-effectiveness analysis in the policies recommended and advocated by the majority view on climate change, particularly by the radical change in lifestyle that will have to take place in the developed countries, and the unnecessary burden that will be put on the poor in the developing world. Lawson questions the fundamentals of AGW orthodoxy just armed with common sense, his political experience, and some very clever back-of-the-envelope calculations.

Lawson opens the book arguing that although he agrees that there is a real warming trend, he is skeptical of the validity of predictions made with global climate simulation models, and more importantly, he questions if indeed the sole cause of this warming is man-made greenhouses and how big the contribution of CO2 is. Lawson also raises several issues regarding the IPCC process, its findings and policy recommendations, and throughout the book he strongly criticizes the The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, which he considers "at the extreme end of the alarmist camp".

He might not be right in all the issues, but certainly he will at least let you wonder about some of them. Besides the reasonable critic of the economics, I found particularly robust his argument regarding the lack of falsifiability of climate simulation models and their predictions, which means that these complex models do not meet one of the most basic criteria required for any theory to be considered within the domain of science (for more on falsifiability read Karl Popper's The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Routledge Classics)). He sarcastically notes the fact that all models have failed so far to predict that there has been no further warming between 2001 and 2007. And by the way, this trend continued during 2008, ending with one the coolest boreal winters in recent decades (just Google to verify by yourself). Personally I do not think this recent short trend means that AGW is not real but more likely just part of the normal blips within long term climate patterns, in this case regarding the effects of the normal sunspot cycles and La Ni�a, as Lawson later in the book explains. However, it is a good example of the risks of advocating a cause with incomplete science, oversimplifications and by obstructing any real scientific debate.

After making his case in Chapter 1 about why he thinks "the science of global warming is far from settle", Lawson proceeds as any respectable economist would do, and assumes a prudent position "to err on the side of caution". Therefore, for the rest of the book he works under the assumption that the AGW theory is correct as reported by the IPPC's 2007 Report (see Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Climate Change 2007) - a PDF version is available for free through the web) .

First he goes on to discus the practical consequences of the predicted warming over the next hundred years, based on the IPCC scenarios and policy recommendations. Next he analyzes the importance of adaptation, what Lawson claims is the IPPC's most serious flaw regarding the impact of global warming, as there is a "systematic underestimation of the benefits of adaptation" and "the most cost-effective way of addressing the likely consequences" as opposed to reducing CO2 emissions. He also is critical of the Stern Review and the Kyoto Protocol and the practical difficulties of reaching a global agreement. Then he discusses the different technologies and market alternatives being implemented and available to reduce emissions, closing with his own proposal to impose a carbon tax across the board, but implemented simultaneously with a reduction of other taxes to compensate for the extra revenues and avoiding any additional burden on the taxpayer. The book closes with a discussion about the discount rates used by the IPCC and the Stern Review in their economic analysis, with a more detailed discussion on the latter. The book ends with a warning about the dangers of the environmental movement, calling it "the new religion of eco-fundamentalism" and claiming that "we appear to have entered a new age of unreason."

I highly recommended this book for those with a genuine interest in the AGW controversy, and particularly in the aspects regarding the economics of mitigation and/or adaptation that will be necessary and that is being debated right now.

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47 of 61 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Just what it says on the tin, 16 Sep 2008

By	Mr. S. Loveday (Wells, England) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This is a wonderful book. As the title suggests, it is cool, reasonable, and patient, looking carefully at all the evidence and coming to conclusions which it is hard to disagree with.

Like other reviewers, I find it hard to take excerpts from the book because I would have to quote the whole thing! However, perhaps I may try to help anyone who is wondering whether to read it. One way to look at the global warming/climate change debate is to ask oneself three questions.

First, is the world getting warmer?
Second, is human activity, and specifically CO2, a major cause?
And third, does it matter? Will there be harmful consequences? And if so, what should we do about them?

Much of the angry debate between believers and sceptics rages round the first two points. Lawson surveys the evidence on both, and comes to a conclusion. But what makes this book so powerful is its focus on the third question: whether a warmer world is one that will harm people, animals, plants, and our descendants. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) argues that it will. Lawson disagrees. He takes us through the IPCC scenarios, and their range of predictions relating to five potential impacts of a warmer world: on water, ecosystems, food, coasts, and health. In each case he demonstrates, with evidence, that a warmer world will either be neutral or even beneficial. What makes this evidence particularly persuasive is that much of it is drawn from the IPCC's own 4th report (2007)!.

It would be wrong to think of this book as complacent, a kind of 'I'm all right, Jack, pull up the ladder'. As Lawson points out, the single major cause of ill-health and death in the world is poverty, and if we take the standpoint of human welfare, the surest way to benefit humans is to lift them out of poverty. Lawson sees many serious problems facing the world, and many things that urgently need putting right. The view of this compelling and convincing book is that global warming isn't one of them.

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73 of 107 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars excellent critique, 21 April 2008

By	paul "paul" (cheshire) - See all my reviews

An excellent critique of the current mass-hysteria surrounding anything to do with changes in climate. Lord Lawson doesn't deny that the Earth warmed between the 1970s and the late 1990s. And he accurately points out that temperatures since then have been flat (not forecast in advance by any of the models by the way).
He then goes on to look at what may happen if (IF) the climate models are right. He discusses the great capacity of humans to adapt, even to an IPCC worst case. He examines why a global political solution is frankly not going to happen and why European action only is poor policy.
And then applies basic sound economic theory to explain why, even if the anthropogenic warming theories are correct it is poor economics to damage the current economy by restricting growth given that the costs of doing so would be far better spent in other areas, including poverty relief and health improvements in the developing world. And all complete with full references.
A necessary book which should be required reading for all who seek to govern and tax us.

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Most Recent Customer Reviews

1.0 out of 5 stars Outdated
Lawson cherry picked what he needed to make his case which would have been considerably weaker if he had mentioned all the facts. Read more

Published 17 days ago by N. PALMER

4.0 out of 5 stars Great Stuff
As someone who loves Global Warming, I was sad to learn through this book that its a load of rubbish. Read more

Published 1 month ago by Branks

5.0 out of 5 stars Before our Countryside is obliterated with Wind Farms
This is a well-researched book by Nigel Lawson which hopefully will counteract some of the hype, spin and fanaticism surrounding the subject of global warming. Read more

Published 1 month ago by John of Weston-super-Mare

5.0 out of 5 stars An important and exiting read
Lawson provides some very important angles that are generally ignored in mass media.
The book is well written, well argued and a very easy read even for those that are not... Read more

Published 2 months ago by M. W. Hagerup

1.0 out of 5 stars An Appeal To Reason. A Cool Look At Global Warming
What should be a balanced review of the subject is spoiled by some poor editing. Temperature conversions are incorrect and consequently the text is a nonsense. Read more

Published 2 months ago by Malcolm R. Tilley

5.0 out of 5 stars A reasonable summary of the evidence
As a professional scientist I get tired and annoyed when so many non-scientists tell me about the so-call scientific consensus and the over-whelming evidence to support man-made... Read more

Published 2 months ago by Prometheus

5.0 out of 5 stars essential Reading
This book should be essential reading for everyone.
"Green" used to mean naive - and some sections of society are displaying incredible naivety in respect of climate change... Read more

Published 2 months ago by Stevek

4.0 out of 5 stars thought provoking , carefully reasoned - overtaken by events?
Conventional wisdom on global warming and climate change needs to be treated with greater sceptiscm. Read more

Published 4 months ago by M. Hillmann

5.0 out of 5 stars Not before time
This is a book which accepts (for the sake of argument) the "worse case" scenarios of the ridiculous Stern report, and the scaremongering publication distributed by the IPCC and... Read more

Published 4 months ago by C. S. Short

4.0 out of 5 stars Sensible Stuff
Lawson wisely accepts at face value some of the daft premises of the ecomiserabilists, so that he can then challenge their sources, data and arguments. He does this well. Read more

Published 4 months ago by Sceptical Analyst

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