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An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming
 
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An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming (Hardcover)

by Nigel Lawson (Author)
3.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (49 customer reviews)
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Product details

  • Hardcover: 144 pages
  • Publisher: Gerald Duckworth & Co Ltd (10 April 2008)
  • Language English
  • ISBN-10: 071563786X
  • ISBN-13: 978-0715637869
  • Product Dimensions: 19.8 x 13.2 x 2.5 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (49 customer reviews)
  • Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 17,773 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

    Popular in these categories:

    #8 in  Books > Science & Nature > Environment & Ecology > Environmental Philosophy
    #11 in  Books > Science & Nature > Earth Sciences & Geography > Meteorology > Global Warming
    #11 in  Books > Science & Nature > Environment & Ecology > Global Warming

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Product Description

Review

'Only one senior political figure in Britain has dared stand apart from [the] stifling orthodoxy: Nigel Lawson' --The Telegraph

'On many points the sceptics happen to be correct. Nigel Lawson's short splendid book ... can leave no fair-minded reader in doubt on that score ... Elegantly written, thorough, entertaining and, above all, convincing' --The Financial Times

'Tightly argued ... Bombarded with the zealous certainties of those deaf to reasoned argument on the most important of issues, it is intensely refreshing to find in Nigel Lawson someome who, without claiming to have all the answers, is at least brave enough to ask eminently sensible questions' --The Spectator


Product Description

In this well-informed and hard-hitting response to the scaremongering of the climate alarmists, Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor of the Exchequer and Secretary of State for Energy, argues that it is time for us to take a cool look at global warming. Lawson carefully and succinctly examines all aspects of the global warming issue: the science, the economics, the politics, and the ethics. He concludes that, contrary to the deeply-flawed Stern Review, the conventional wisdom on the subject is suspect on a number of grounds; that global warming is not the devastating threat to the planet it is widely alleged ot be; and that the remedy that is currently being proposed, which is in any event politically unattainable, would be worse that the threat it is supposed to avert.All this is argued with logic, commmon sense, and even wit, and thoroughly sourced and referenced. The book concludes by outlining the form a rational response to global warming should take, and explains why the mistaken conventional wisdom has become the quasi-religion it is today, and the dangers that this presents. Lord Lawson has written a long overdue and much needed corrective to the barrage of spin and hype to which the politicians and media have been subjecting the public on this important issue, which affects us all.

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Customer Reviews

49 Reviews
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Average Customer Review
3.7 out of 5 stars (49 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
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28 of 35 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Great common sense critic of Global Warming, and a smart discussion on the most cost-effective way to address the consequences, 25 Jan 2009
By Emc2 (Tropical Utopia) - See all my reviews
This is a short and well-written book, provocative and full of smart and no nonsense arguments. Lawson provides end notes for each chapter and all bibliographical sources are properly referenced. The book's aim is to examine each of the dimensions of the consensus view of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), including the science, the economics, the politics, and the ethical aspects. He is concerned with the uncertainties of long-term forecasting and the lack of a real cost-effectiveness analysis in the policies recommended and advocated by the majority view on climate change, particularly by the radical change in lifestyle that will have to take place in the developed countries, and the unnecessary burden that will be put on the poor in the developing world. Lawson questions the fundamentals of AGW orthodoxy just armed with common sense, his political experience, and some very clever back-of-the-envelope calculations.

Lawson opens the book arguing that although he agrees that there is a real warming trend, he is skeptical of the validity of predictions made with global climate simulation models, and more importantly, he questions if indeed the sole cause of this warming is man-made greenhouses and how big the contribution of CO2 is. Lawson also raises several issues regarding the IPCC process, its findings and policy recommendations, and throughout the book he strongly criticizes the The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, which he considers "at the extreme end of the alarmist camp".

He might not be right in all the issues, but certainly he will at least let you wonder about some of them. Besides the reasonable critic of the economics, I found particularly robust his argument regarding the lack of falsifiability of climate simulation models and their predictions, which means that these complex models do not meet one of the most basic criteria required for any theory to be considered within the domain of science (for more on falsifiability read Karl Popper's The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Routledge Classics)). He sarcastically notes the fact that all models have failed so far to predict that there has been no further warming between 2001 and 2007. And by the way, this trend continued during 2008, ending with one the coolest boreal winters in recent decades (just Google to verify by yourself). Personally I do not think this recent short trend means that AGW is not real but more likely just part of the normal blips within long term climate patterns, in this case regarding the effects of the normal sunspot cycles and La Niña, as Lawson later in the book explains. However, it is a good example of the risks of advocating a cause with incomplete science, oversimplifications and by obstructing any real scientific debate.

After making his case in Chapter 1 about why he thinks "the science of global warming is far from settle", Lawson proceeds as any respectable economist would do, and assumes a prudent position "to err on the side of caution". Therefore, for the rest of the book he works under the assumption that the AGW theory is correct as reported by the IPPC's 2007 Report (see Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Climate Change 2007) - a PDF version is available for free through the web) .

First he goes on to discus the practical consequences of the predicted warming over the next hundred years, based on the IPCC scenarios and policy recommendations. Next he analyzes the importance of adaptation, what Lawson claims is the IPPC's most serious flaw regarding the impact of global warming, as there is a "systematic underestimation of the benefits of adaptation" and "the most cost-effective way of addressing the likely consequences" as opposed to reducing CO2 emissions. He also is critical of the Stern Review and the Kyoto Protocol and the practical difficulties of reaching a global agreement. Then he discusses the different technologies and market alternatives being implemented and available to reduce emissions, closing with his own proposal to impose a carbon tax across the board, but implemented simultaneously with a reduction of other taxes to compensate for the extra revenues and avoiding any additional burden on the taxpayer. The book closes with a discussion about the discount rates used by the IPCC and the Stern Review in their economic analysis, with a more detailed discussion on the latter. The book ends with a warning about the dangers of the environmental movement, calling it "the new religion of eco-fundamentalism" and claiming that "we appear to have entered a new age of unreason."

I highly recommended this book for those with a genuine interest in the AGW controversy, and particularly in the aspects regarding the economics of mitigation and/or adaptation that will be necessary and that is being debated right now.
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52 of 70 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Just what it says on the tin, 16 Sep 2008
By Mr. S. Loveday (Wells, England) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   
This is a wonderful book. As the title suggests, it is cool, reasonable, and patient, looking carefully at all the evidence and coming to conclusions which it is hard to disagree with.

Like other reviewers, I find it hard to take excerpts from the book because I would have to quote the whole thing! However, perhaps I may try to help anyone who is wondering whether to read it. One way to look at the global warming/climate change debate is to ask oneself three questions.

First, is the world getting warmer?
Second, is human activity, and specifically CO2, a major cause?
And third, does it matter? Will there be harmful consequences? And if so, what should we do about them?

Much of the angry debate between believers and sceptics rages round the first two points. Lawson surveys the evidence on both, and comes to a conclusion. But what makes this book so powerful is its focus on the third question: whether a warmer world is one that will harm people, animals, plants, and our descendants. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) argues that it will. Lawson disagrees. He takes us through the IPCC scenarios, and their range of predictions relating to five potential impacts of a warmer world: on water, ecosystems, food, coasts, and health. In each case he demonstrates, with evidence, that a warmer world will either be neutral or even beneficial. What makes this evidence particularly persuasive is that much of it is drawn from the IPCC's own 4th report (2007)!.

It would be wrong to think of this book as complacent, a kind of 'I'm all right, Jack, pull up the ladder'. As Lawson points out, the single major cause of ill-health and death in the world is poverty, and if we take the standpoint of human welfare, the surest way to benefit humans is to lift them out of poverty. Lawson sees many serious problems facing the world, and many things that urgently need putting right. The view of this compelling and convincing book is that global warming isn't one of them.
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9 of 12 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars A reasonable summary of the evidence, 10 May 2009
By Prometheus "Dr John" (South, England) - See all my reviews
As a professional scientist I get tired and annoyed when so many non-scientists tell me about the so-call scientific consensus and the over-whelming evidence to support man-made global warming. At last someone who has written a clear and thoughtful layman's guide to the scientific support (or lack of) for the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis. Although the book lacks real scientific rigor which I would prefer, I can recommend it to thinking non-scientists who wish to know more about the real facts as opposed to the many unsupported claims made by the alarmist sector of the society.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

3.0 out of 5 stars Interesting to read but full of inaccuracies
This was one of the earlier skeptic books and, it is superficially convincing. However, I am in the fortunate position to have studied much of the work and papers that the author... Read more
Published 4 days ago by Alex

5.0 out of 5 stars An excellent summary of the true state of Global Warming


I have read a considerable number of books on this topic.

Nigel Lawson seems to have condensed these into one well written volume
If you read... Read more
Published 18 days ago by Mr. N. Mabbs

4.0 out of 5 stars Beyond simple reasoning
Nigel Lawson develops the discussion beyond the level reached in the mass media to give a well reasoned and balanced view that is at odds with that held by many commentators.
Published 1 month ago by M. Salt

5.0 out of 5 stars If you know John Prescott please give him a copy before he destroys the UK economy...
An excellent and considered review of the "real" state of Global Warming, or as we scientists might put it "the usual ups and downs of Global Temperature which had a bit of an up... Read more
Published 2 months ago by M. R. N. Shackelford

5.0 out of 5 stars Should be compulsory reading
Brilliant. This book should be compulsory reading for everyone. Lawson has clearly done his homework and the book is extremely well written.
Published 2 months ago by S. Marshall

3.0 out of 5 stars Excellent in places
Former British chancellor Nigel Lawson considers the uncertain science behind AGW and the conclusions of the Stern report to draw very different conclusions of his own: AGW seems... Read more
Published 2 months ago by John R. Wade

2.0 out of 5 stars Delicious
There is nothing quite as satisfying as the sound of a Sacred Cow getting a good slap on the arse. Lawson delivers.

Is he wrong? Read more
Published 3 months ago by Mr. A. Bearn

3.0 out of 5 stars Safely Outspoken
This is by no means a bad book on a very difficult topic. Lawson points out how difficult it was to get it published because he is not in line with conventional wisdom. Read more
Published 3 months ago by Graham M. Green

1.0 out of 5 stars Outdated
Lawson cherry picked what he needed to make his case which would have been considerably weaker if he had mentioned all the facts. Read more
Published 4 months ago by N. PALMER

4.0 out of 5 stars Great Stuff
As someone who loves Global Warming, I was sad to learn through this book that its a load of rubbish. Read more
Published 4 months ago by Branks

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