How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, Russell Napier sets out to answer these questions by analyzing every article in the Wall Street Journal; from either side of the market bottom. In the 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging. By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorizing how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best financial provisions for the future. This new edition includes an updated prologue from the author.
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deserves another read --Moneyweek, July 2008
From the Inside Flap
Russell Napier's 'Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's Four Great Bottoms' is an outstanding "must read" for any follower of financial markets. Russell has filled a void. This is the first book to my knowledge that traces, with many pertinent insights, the swings of US stock prices from undervaluation to overvaluation and back over the past 100 years.
I am constantly asked about the best investment opportunities. The acquisition of knowledge and a broad understanding of historical price trends may be one of the best personal investments one can make at this time. I have no doubt that 'Anatomy of the Bear' will become an investment book classic, read by followers of financial trends for generations.
Dr Mark Faber, author of 'The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report' --This text refers to the Paperback edition.
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8 of 9 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
I started reading this in April '09 - partly to see whether there were lessons in understanding the 2009 crash, and partly to see if there were any hints about foreseeing the start of the climb back out. And I liked his approach - give quotations from the Wall Street Journal in the days running up to the turn and shortly after, and try to see what it was that changed people from pessimists to optimists and got the markets moving up.
The author is very picky about what he considers a bear market - and ends up analysing just four - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. He then decides that the Wall Street Crash of 1929 (or 1932 - which was the bottom of the market) was so unusual that we can't draw lessons from it.
So suddenly we are only looking at three events, and trying to draw generalisations from them. I got sceptical.
But at the same time I was reading the book, the maket was showing some (clearly false) signs of life again. And the signs that the author mentioned (drops in interest rates, increases in copper prices, ...)were also appearing. Just a coincidencce, since the market was so obviously set for further falls.
Needless to say, the small investments I made at the time (just in case the author was correct - a bit of regret minimisation by me) have seriously outperformed the rest of my portfolio.
It is an interesting book - readable, educational and well researched. And I think the author will find he has another chapter to write on the 2009 bear market that fits in quite nicely with his thesis.
If only I had believed him the first time!
The author is very picky about what he considers a bear market - and ends up analysing just four - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. He then decides that the Wall Street Crash of 1929 (or 1932 - which was the bottom of the market) was so unusual that we can't draw lessons from it.
So suddenly we are only looking at three events, and trying to draw generalisations from them. I got sceptical.
But at the same time I was reading the book, the maket was showing some (clearly false) signs of life again. And the signs that the author mentioned (drops in interest rates, increases in copper prices, ...)were also appearing. Just a coincidencce, since the market was so obviously set for further falls.
Needless to say, the small investments I made at the time (just in case the author was correct - a bit of regret minimisation by me) have seriously outperformed the rest of my portfolio.
It is an interesting book - readable, educational and well researched. And I think the author will find he has another chapter to write on the 2009 bear market that fits in quite nicely with his thesis.
If only I had believed him the first time!
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
By Franky
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Interesting - well written - deeply pessimistic in the short term . Goes for a 'bear bottom' in 2014 - we shall see!!
7 of 9 people found the following review helpful
By bookworm
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Stock market histories are pretty thin on the ground and the ones that do exist tend to explore singular periods such as the Wall Street Crash, Tulip mania and so on, so a book which explore all of the 20th Century's recessions in an attempt to find common signals of their ending is both ambitious and timely. Fortunately, like his CLSA stable mate Marc Faber, Russell Napier's delivery is up to the job as he picks primary and secondary source facts and figures like a financial magpie to describe the narrative of each recession's beginning, bottoming and recovery.
'Anatomy of the Bear' has been researched with academic rigour and while all those facts and accompanying charts and tables can appear daunting at first it is also written in an approachable style as Napier brings to life the alternating euphoria then doom and despair and the return to euphoria of each market turn. Unlike books that claim that they will make you wildly rich, the conclusions herein may well actually help you or your firm succeed in making the right investment choices. The only negative issue is the lack of an index but for a title that is worth its weight in gold that is a small price to pay.
'Anatomy of the Bear' has been researched with academic rigour and while all those facts and accompanying charts and tables can appear daunting at first it is also written in an approachable style as Napier brings to life the alternating euphoria then doom and despair and the return to euphoria of each market turn. Unlike books that claim that they will make you wildly rich, the conclusions herein may well actually help you or your firm succeed in making the right investment choices. The only negative issue is the lack of an index but for a title that is worth its weight in gold that is a small price to pay.
0 of 2 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Both extremely interesting and rather boring at the same time, if that is possible. Interesting because of the very important conclusions; boring because of the way in which it is written. But well worth making the effort to finish it.
0 of 3 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Good value, good value, good value, good value, good value, Why pester me about a book i haven't read yet? Nice cover good weight.
1 of 6 people found the following review helpful
By robbie
Format:Hardcover
I can't think there are many, if any, as good as this. Although the extent of the predicted fall does take a bit of swallowing
1 of 7 people found the following review helpful
By R. McCarthy
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
This book is a must-read for any self respecting bear. It is simply too important a book to ignore.
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