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Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (Paperback)

by Peter L. Bernstein (Author) "Why is the mastery of risk such a uniquely modern concept? ..." (more)
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (11 customer reviews)
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Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk + The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable + Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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Product details

  • Paperback: 400 pages
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons; New edition edition (29 Sep 1998)
  • Language English
  • ISBN-10: 0471295639
  • ISBN-13: 978-0471295631
  • Product Dimensions: 22.6 x 15.2 x 2.8 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (11 customer reviews)
  • Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 9,187 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

    Popular in these categories:

    #1 in  Books > Business, Finance & Law > Professional Finance > Risk Management
    #1 in  Books > Business, Finance & Law > Personal Finance > Insurance > Risk Management
    #11 in  Books > Science & Nature > Mathematics > Probability & Statistics

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  • See Complete Table of Contents

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Product Description

Review

"...provides an excellent history about risk and it′s vital role in markets." (Wall Street Journal, August 7, 2006)

“…an excellent book on what can be a dry subject…” (Financial World, 1st December 2005)

"I must say that I enjoyed the book, it was written in a light–hearted manner".(Money Matters, April 2001)

No. 7 bestseller in ′Risk′ (erivativesreview.com, December 2001)



The Washington Post Book World, September 20, 1998

AGAINST THE GODS appeared in the "Washington Is Also Reading..." section of The Washington Post Book World. The book is described as, "A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, from ancient gamblers in Greece to modern chaos theory."--The Washington Post Book World, September 20, 1998
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Inside This Book (Learn More)
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Why is the mastery of risk such a uniquely modern concept? Read the first page
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Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
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Customer Reviews

11 Reviews
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Average Customer Review
4.3 out of 5 stars (11 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
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62 of 65 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars Spins a good yarn, 19 April 1999
By A Customer
This review is from: Against the Gods: Remarkable Story of Risk (Hardcover)
This is full of highly entertaining anecdotes, pithy quotations and useful snippets of knowledge which add up to a cogent argument only by making some outrageously sweeping assumptions.

It is difficult to argue with the excellent summary of risk management during the course of this century, and anyone looking for a thought-provoking introduction to Markowitz and all that need look no further.

However, to get there you need to get past a broad swipe at the History of Ideas which attempts to show you how clever we are compared to the ancients. The author's basic premise is that in The Olden Days when we were unable to accurately measure risk, people cheerfully put their faith in the lap of the gods, blindly setting to sea during storms, building their houses next to flood-prone rivers, all the while serenely unaware of how the odds stacked up against them. Then, as we became increasingly aware of the beauty of zeroes, Arabic numerals and standard deviation, we were increasingly able to measure what was going on and therefore control it. Well, that assumes that you cannot control risk without first being able to accurately measure it. I just don't believe that the Greeks never spotted that their unevenly-shaped dice fell more often on one side than the other - kids in playgrounds spot that kind of thing easily. I also rubbed my eyes in disbelief at the idea that the period of Columbus was the first time in history that wealth was created by mutually beneficial trade, rather than by conquest and pillage - is this a commonly held belief? And while we're being pedantic, Pascal's Pensées are not his "autobiography", nor is it safe to make assumptions that the fragments in them are all expressions of his own beliefs.

Nevertheless, an enjoyable read that is satisfyingly thought-provoking.

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15 of 15 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Everything is a risk, 3 Jul 2003
Are you a private investor looking for handy tips on hot stocks? Good luck, but this might not be for you. You won't find get-rick-quick advice in this scholarly work, but you might learn why you're drawn to actively managed funds despite their history of market underperformance. You'll also be enriched by the stories and depth of research here. Another reviewer objects that Bernstein credits the Greek mathematicians with less understanding of probability than a school child. It seemed to me that Bernstein is saying something different: Even if Socrates had a private opinion about the frequency of VI on an astragali roll it wasn't a respectable part of his intellectual framework. He might of known it, but he refused to study it.

The author clearly considers his subject the most important in history, and in 330 pages identifies every significant step in the development of *thinking about* risk. In some ways though, the focus is too narrow. It becomes clear towards the end of the book that he has been building up the strands of probability theory as precursors to the 'taming of risk' in modern financial theory. I was hoping that an ambitious work on the history of probability would include the discovery that all of reality is based on chance, but you can search the index for 'Quantum Mechanics' in vain. (However 'Quant' is there - Bernstein himself was once a financial mathematician.)

In a subject as huge as risk there will always be more to say, and what is included here makes a cohesive whole whilst being important or interesting in it parts. Ok, maybe you don't love chance as much as me - what you need to know about portfolio theory is in Chapter 12 onwards - you'll still have 140 pages of important results. It's even topical, Kahneman's Prospect Theory is covered in detail (and he won the Nobel last year).

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16 of 19 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Outstanding Book of Clarity and Depth., 14 Nov 2003
By A Customer
There are books which the subject at hand could easily bore the lay person after the first chapter, however this is definetly not one of them. Shamefully, knowing little arithmetic(never mind maths), I was pleasantly ensnared in this feast of probability. It is written clearly and coherently and introduces the reader to a whole universe of number subjects which fascinated me from start to finish. From Pascals triangle to John Nash's work on game theory, I understood broadly, every concept the author introduced.
Whether you are a student of Maths or Philosophy,History or Science, a bookworm or an occassionite, this book is for you.
I highly recommend this masterpiece.
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