20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World [Hardcover]

Now, McKinsey & Company consultant Hugh Courtney argues that managers must move beyond the outdated "all-or-nothing" view of strategy in which future events are either certain or uncertain. Instead, he suggests a simple-yet powerful-alternative: Understand the level of uncertainty you are facing in a given situation, and you will make better, more informed strategic choices.

Based on an international review of the key strategy problems faced by over one hundred leading companies, Courtney reveals how executives can develop 20/20 foresight--a view of the future that separates what can be known from what can't. While executives with 20/20 foresight can rarely develop perfect forecasts of the future, says Courtney, they can isolate the "residual uncertainty" they face and use this insight to create competitive advantage in today's turbulent markets.

Unveiling a revolutionary framework for diagnosing to which of the four levels of residual uncertainty a specific strategy choice corresponds, 20/20 Foresight shows how readers can leverage this knowledge to answer three key strategic questions: 1) Shape or adapt to uncertainty? 2) Make strategic commitments now or later? and 3) Follow a focused or diversified strategy?

20/20 Foresight also:

· shows strategists how to tailor every aspect of the decision-making process-from formulation to implementation-to the level of uncertainty faced,

· describes the strategic-planning processes readers can use to monitor, update, and revise strategies as necessary in volatile markets, and

· includes a toolkit for identifying, developing, and testing new strategy options-complete with guidelines for applying the right tool to the right situation at the right time.

A comprehensive approach to strategy development under all possible levels of uncertainty and across all kinds of industries, this is the essential guide for making tough strategic choices in a changing world.

Hugh Courtney is an Associate Principal with the Global Strategy Practice at McKinsey & Company in Washington D.C.

the author brings deep insight and expertise to bear on this rich and complex topic.  Provides the frameworks and corresponding tools to make tough strategic

choices systematically and with greater confidence, whatever the level of uncertainty

faced.  Strategy under uncertainty is not only a timely topic, but it also has a long shelf-life.  The enthusiastic response to Courtney's HBR article, "Strategy under Uncertainty," proves that readers are interested in gaining more control over strategy development, despite the uncertainty they face.  Organizes and makes sense of the many competing approaches to strategy under uncertainty.  Includes lots of company stories and in-depth case examples.  Utilizes a helpful framework for categorizing 4 different levels of uncertainty, determining which level applies to a given decision, and tailoring suitable strategies to each level.