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The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007 Paperback – 5 Mar 2013

4.4 out of 5 stars 7 customer reviews

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Product details

  • Paperback: 100 pages
  • Publisher: Harriman House Ltd; 1st edition (5 Mar. 2013)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0857192736
  • ISBN-13: 978-0857192738
  • Product Dimensions: 18.9 x 0.6 x 24.6 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 273,932 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • See Complete Table of Contents

More About the Author

Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency.

He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts.

Kerry has been a guest on CNBC and has been featured in Investors Chronicle magazine.

Product Description

About the Author

Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts.


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Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
I bought this book after watching an interview of the author. His theory is, put simply, that there are consecutive cycles of share prices, each of 17.6 years. Thus share prices tend to rise for 17.6 years (a secular bull market) and then fall for 17.6 years (a secular bear market). Within each cycle there are counter cycles of 2.2 or 4.4 years when prices move with or against the overall trend.

So far it may seem unlikely: if it were that simple we would all know when to buy and sell. However, the author then applies his theory to the Dow Jones index of US shares for successive periods going back to 1929. Broadly he demonstrates that his theory has merit.

So can we apply it to today and the next few years? Mr Balenthiran says we are in a 17.6 year secular bear cycle ending in 2018. He predicts that in 2013 there will be a fall in prices, while from 2018 we shall begin in a long (17.6 year) summer of rising prices. This is an oversimplification, but I would not bet against him.

A short book, but worth reading by the intelligent investor.
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Format: Paperback
The author provides a compelling argument for the existence of fixed stock market cycles and illustrates his points well, however I personally struggle with the concept that these cycles will continue regardless of the action of central bankers and their low interest rate policies.

Nonetheless this is an very interesting book. The "Balenthiran Cycle" charts are incredible and I recommend that people familiarise themselves with the cycle and keep it in mind, but not rely on it exclusively.
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Apparently the author of this intriguing volume is an ex rocket scientist but even so even I could understand it. Thoroughly researched and thought provoking, well worth a read.
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good theory, but not to use as the only one. Good to combine with other theories.I don't use the preferent scenario.
Believe a dip is not in 2013 but in 2015.
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